Political business cycles and macroeconomic credibility: a survey

There is clear evidence that government popularity and election performance is affected, in part, by economic performance, suggesting that governments may manipulate the economy to political advantage. Simple models incorporating adaptive expectations which allowed the government to exploit this relationship were developed in the 1970s, but fell out of fashion with the advent of new-classical economics. However, modern theories of the political business cycle, which are closely related to the macroeconomic policy game literature, assume rational expectations, and lead to forms of political business cycle, driven by the existence of uncertainty of one type or another. The international evidence suggests that some aspects of the theories apply, although definitive conclusions are – as we might expect – hard to come by.     

Freedom to do What you are Told: Senior Management Team Autonomy in an NHS Acute Trust

Arguably, the government's aim of using the reward of 'earned autonomy' and Foundation Trust status as an incentive to improve performance in the NHS will only be effective if Trust managers view greater autonomy as both desirable and realistic. This article examines this issue by investigating the extent to which members of an NHS Trust's senior management team perceive themselves as autonomous, the factors most likely to hinder their ability to operate autonomously, and the extent to which managers want greater autonomy. In the event, autonomy was largely restricted by extensive centrally dictated targets. Entrenched professional interests and a lack of managerial skills on the part of clinician managers suggested limitations on the extent to which autonomy can be realistically devolved. Additionally, there was little belief among managers that greater autonomy would enable healthcare services to be delivered more effectively.     

Personalised parliamentary behaviour without electoral incentives: the case of the Netherlands

Most theories of legislative behaviour explain the behaviour of MPs through electoral incentives. However, they fail to explain variation in parliamentary activity when individual electoral incentives are largely absent. This article studies MPs’ activity in such a parliament: the Dutch Tweede Kamer. It examines four clusters of incentives that may drive parliamentarians to be active. Party and committee environments provide the best explanation for the level of activity of individual MPs. Reselection and promotion prospects explain MPs’ behaviour, but only under more particular specifications. Re-election prospects were not found to affect activity levels.     

Overcoming the benchmark problem in estimating bias in traffic enforcement: the use of automatic traffic enforcement cameras

Objectives

The existence of bias in law enforcement can be difficult to verify or disprove, in part because of the difficulty of finding a benchmark—an objective estimate of actual offenses committed by the studied population—that can be compared with police enforcement. In the current study, we propose and test a method for examining bias in enforcement of speeding offenses.

Method

Using all speeding tickets issued in Israel in 2013–2015, we compare speeding tickets generated by stationary automatic traffic cameras, which provide an objective estimate of speed offenses, with speeding tickets issued manually by police officers, based on drivers’ ethnicity with further distribution by gender and age.

Results

Initial findings indicate that, overall, speeding tickets issued by police officers in Israel are not biased based on drivers’ ethnicity.

Conclusions

This study highlights the importance of distinguishing between overrepresentation and bias in law enforcement, which sometimes seem to be blurred in the literature.

     

Quantitative PCR overestimation of DNA in samples contaminated with tin

Metals can pose challenges while conducting forensic DNA analysis. The presence of metal ions in evidence-related DNA extracts can degrade DNA or inhibit PCR as applied to DNA quantification (real-time PCR or qPCR) and/or STR amplification, leading to low success in STR profiling. Different metal ions were spiked into 0.2 and 0.5 ng of human genomic DNA in an “inhibition study” and the impact was evaluated by qPCR using the Quantifiler™ Trio DNA Quantification Kit (Thermo Fisher Scientific) and an in-house SYBR Green assay. This study reports on a contradictory finding specific to tin (Sn) ions, which caused at least a 38,000-fold overestimation of DNA concentration when utilizing Quantifiler Trio. This was explained by the raw and multicomponent spectral plots, which indicated that Sn suppresses the Quantifiler Trio passive reference dye (Mustang Purple™, MP) at ion concentrations above 0.1 mM. This effect was not observed when DNA was quantified using SYBR Green with ROX™ as the passive reference, nor when DNA was extracted and purified prior to Quantifiler Trio. The results show that metal contaminants can interfere with qPCR-based DNA quantification in unexpected ways and may be assay dependent. The results also highlight the importance of qPCR as a quality check to determine steps for sample cleanup prior to STR amplification that may be similarly impacted by metal ions. Forensic workflows should recognize the risk of inaccurate DNA quantification of samples that are collected from substrates containing tin.     

Comparison of the variables affecting the recovery of DNA from common drinking containers

As the boundaries of forensic DNA profiling continue to expand, less obvious sources of biological evidence are being collected at crime scenes for DNA profiling. One example is the recovery of biological evidence from common drink containers, such as bottles and cans, which have been found at crime scenes. There are many variables that may have an impact on recovering a DNA profile from such exhibits. In this research, the effects of person to person variation, time, type of drink (including alcoholic and non-alcoholic beverages), and type of drink container, were assessed for their impact on the major analytical outcomes of the DNA process. The results show that the alpha-amylase activity varies from individual to individual and is reduced in the presence of some alcoholic drinks. A reasonable DNA yield was obtained from all samples, however, the concentrations exhibited significant person to person variation. The type of drink container influenced the DNA yield with cans giving a higher yield than bottles of the same drink type. To a reduced extent the presence or absence of alcohol affected the overall DNA yield and when partial or failed DNA profiles were produced they were more likely to be associated with alcoholic drinks than non-alcoholic drinks.     

War and pieces

There is increasing recognition among human geographers that conceptualising the spatiality of peace is a vital component of our collective disciplinary praxis. Within this emergent literature, this paper seeks to position anarchism as an ethical philosophy of nonviolence and the absolute rejection of war. Such an interpretation does not attempt to align nonviolence to any particular organised religious teaching, as has recently been advocated by some geographers. Instead, the paper argues that the current practices of religion undermine the geographies of peace by fragmenting our affinities into discrete pieces. Advancing a view of anarchism as nonviolence, the paper goes beyond religion to conceptualise peace as both the unqualified refusal of the manifold-cum-interlocking processes of domination, and a precognitive, pre-normative and presupposed category rooted in our inextricable entanglement with each other and all that exists. Yet far from proposing an essentialist view of humanity or engaging a naturalised argument that reconvenes the “noble savage”, the paper contextualises the arguments within the processual frameworks of radical democracy and agonism in seeking to redress the ageographical and ahistorical notions of politics that comprise the contemporary post-political zeitgeist.