Seal the Deal: Bargaining Positions,Institutional Design,and the Duration of Preferential Trade Negotiations

Multilateral negotiations at the World Trade Organization have stalled. This has contributed to a steep rise in preferential trade agreements (PTAs). At the same time, negotiations for PTAs have not always proven quick and painless: While some treaties are sealed within a few months or days only, other agreements are preceded by protracted bargaining processes in trade and trade-related issue areas. In this article, we provide a theoretical explanation for this empirical variation. More specifically, we argue that PTA negotiations take longer the greater the distance between the prospective partners’ initial bargaining positions. Moreover, we contend that negotiation processes become more protracted the higher the relative ambition of the prospective PTA. Due to the limited links to the domestic political arena in autocracies, we expect this latter effect to play out for groups of democratic bargaining partners only. We test these two hypotheses for 198 preferential trade negotiations using novel measures for bargaining templates and the ambition of PTA clauses. In our two-stage survival models, we find support for our argument. In line with qualitative evidence from recent preferential trade initiatives, our models indicate that services, investment and intellectual property rights are particularly sticky agenda items for democratic leaders at the international bargaining table.     

Is there a selection bias in roll call votes? Evidence from the European Parliament

We examine the magnitude and significance of selection bias in roll call votes. Prior to 2009, all recorded (roll call) votes in the European Parliament had to be requested explicitly by European Political Groups. Since 2009, a roll call vote has been mandatory on all final legislative votes. We exploit that change in the rules and compare differences between final legislative votes, amendment votes and non-legislative votes before and after 2009, using a difference-in-differences approach with extensive controls. Using data from the Sixth (2004–2009) to Seventh (2009–2014) European Parliaments, we fail to find any large differences in voting cohesion for the main political groups. We find even less significance when we control for changes in parliamentary membership between those two periods. The results suggest that selection biases in the European Parliament associated with strategic choices are negligible.     

‘A sort of land debatable’: female influence,civic virtue and middle-class identity,c 1830-c 1860[1]

The recent emphasis on the bourgeois public sphere as a predominantly masculine space means that the wider meanings and interpretations of respectable women's presence at public occasions have been ignored or misunderstood. This article addresses the contribution of urban middle-class women to the public construction and expression of middle-class identity in the mid-nineteenth century, and examines the way in which women were written into civic narratives as champions of public virtue. It is argued that the notion of ‘female influence’ allowed women to expand their public roles, and even to participate in potentially subversive political activities. However, it also effectively contained such activities by distancing ‘respectable’ women from the potentially corrupting arena of political controversy.     

Vulnerability to Multidimensional Poverty: Findings from Households in Melanesia

This paper examines vulnerability in two Melanesian small island developing states: Solomon Islands and Vanuatu. With large proportions of the population living semi-subsistence lifestyles in rural areas, consumption poverty is notoriously difficult to measure. The paper therefore departs from the standard approach and assesses household vulnerability to multidimensional poverty. The paper employs cross-sectional data from a household survey. Results indicate that vulnerability is more widespread than poverty and that vulnerability stems more from excess volatility in expected wellbeing than a particularly low expected level of wellbeing, per se. Results point to a pressing need for formal social protection policies to be implemented.     

Testifying in an International War Crimes Tribunal: The Experience of Witnesses in the Special Court for Sierra Leone

The research described in this article investigates the extentto which witnesses who testified in the Special Court for SierraLeone (SCSL) report the experience as positive or negative.It also seeks to identify the factors that contribute to theseevaluations. It reports the results of structured interviewsconducted with 171 witnesses who testified in the SCSL. Thefinding that emerges most strongly is that the experience oftestifying was positive for the majority of witnesses. The courtroomenvironment was experienced as supportive, and witnesses ratedthe experiences of both examination-in-chief and cross-examinationas being more positive than negative, with examination-in-chiefbeing the more positive of the two. The findings suggest thata positive testimony experience can be predicted when a witnessdoes not feel worried at the prospect of testifying, feels respectedby court staff and, to a lesser extent, has a positive experienceof cross-examination.     

The Ends of Deliberation: Meta‐consensus and Inter‐subjective Rationality as Ideal Outcomes

Normative deliberative theory has contributed much to an understanding of ideal procedural standards, but there is considerable uncertainty regarding the appropriate nature of desired deliberative outcomes. In this paper we identify two inter‐related concepts of meta‐consensus and inter‐subjective rationality as outcomes that an authentic deliberative process ought to produce. Importantly, these deliberative ends are consistent with ideal deliberative procedure. They are also empirically tractable, where preference transformation can be described in terms of underlying values, and judgments. Methods for assessing deliberative ends are provided and demonstrated using a case study.     

An Early Community-Based Intervention for the Prevention of Substance Abuse and Other Delinquent Behavior

This paper presents the results of an evaluation of an early intervention, risk-reduction strategy versus a standard intervention approach in the treatment of inner-city youth at high risk of adopting a deviant lifestyle. It examines baseline and 1-year follow-up information provided by 408 youth admitted to 2 community-based Baltimore City Youth Bureaus offering counseling services for neighborhood youth referred for delinquent and other problematic behavior. In the study, one of these bureaus served as the experimental intervention clinic and the other as the control, or standard intervention, clinic. Outcome measures involved substance abuse; sexual activity; contact with juvenile authorities; and delinquent activity, including violence-related activity. Regression analyses of outcome measures revealed significant differential results for delinquent activity, which favored the experimental intervention. Relationships between risk/protective factors and outcome are discussed.