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71.
This article reports on an attempt to forecast the outcome of the 2013 election to the German Bundestag. In contrast to the predominant academic approach to forecast incumbent vote shares from measures of government popularity, economic conditions and other fundamental variables, we entirely relied on data from published trial heat polls. Opposite to common practice in the news media, we did not take isolated polls as election forecasts in their own right. Instead, we used historical data to assess empirically the relationship between polls and election outcomes, and combined extrapolations from current polls in a Bayesian manner. The forecast was published one month ahead of the election. The retrospective evaluation of our method was added after the election. While our method is parsimonious and provides a large lead time, the performance at the 2013 election was underwhelming. We offer additional suggestions how the approach can be improved in future scenarios. 相似文献
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73.
This case highlights potential problems associated with theenforceability of restrictive covenants, and highlights theneed for well-crafted and realistic covenants. 相似文献
74.
Do the molestation experiences of boys and girls differ? The present study analyzed data from 365 adults molested as children, and compared findings for males and females on the identity of the perpetrator, age at onset and end of molestation, duration of molestation, type of sexual acts, and whether the molestation was reported to law enforcement. Results indicated that boys and girls were equally likely to be molested by natural fathers, girls were more likely to be molested by stepfathers, and boys were more likely to be molested by friends of the family. Molestation started at the same age for boys and girls, but lasted longer and ended at a later age for girls. Males and females were equally likely to experience fondling from the waist down and oral intercourse. However, there were significant differences for incidence of anal intercourse and fondling from the waist up. Findings are discussed in the context of previous research in the field. 相似文献
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76.
Legal context. Dilution by blurring has often been accused ofbeing a vague concept which is difficult to understand and whichhas no sensible limits. Mindful of the need for certainty inthis area, the US Senate and House of Representatives have passedthe Trademark Dilution Revision Act 2006. This Bill (which isdiscussed more generally in Part I) includes a definition ofblurring and a six-point test for blurring. Meanwhile, the EuropeanUnion has been steadily building up jurisprudence in this area. Key points. This part of the article focuses on dilution byblurring, considering how blurring is defined, how it is testedfor and whether US and EU blurring protection is in compliancewith the jurisdictions international obligations in thisarea (discussed in Part I). In particular, it considers thenew definition of, and test for, blurring under the US TrademarkDilution Revision Act 2006, and compares the position underthat Bill to the situation in the EU. Practical significance. Assuming that it enters into law, theRevision Act 2006 has serious implications for the proprietorsof famous marks doing business in the US. This article willinform the owners of such marks what protection they will benefitfrom and how this will differ from the protection they willget in the EU. 相似文献
77.
Law and Philosophy - 相似文献
78.
Simon Shen 《当代中国》2015,24(95):883-902
The Pacific Islands region might be regarded as one of the most remote and politically least significant areas in the geopolitical and economic considerations of world giants. However, as the regional order of the Asia–Pacific changes rapidly, China has shown more eagerness to engage the island states. Interestingly, Beijing's former arch-rival Taipei still maintains, arguably, considerable influence over the region. This raises a question that is thought-provoking: why is this status quo tolerated by Beijing? Drawing on empirical sources in relation to communication between Beijing, Taipei and these island states, by focusing on how Beijing handles the South Pacific region in general and the six non-recognizing states in particular, this article attempts to tackle the question by distinguishing the difference in Beijing's mentality today from that of 30 or 40 years ago. It argues that the zero-sum mentality of fighting against Taipei in the region has now been replaced by a positive-sum assumption to engage Taipei, as well as the pan-Chinese community in the world, via the PIS, regardless of whether they establish formal ties with Beijing or not. 相似文献
79.
Increasingly, scholars of legislative politics propose comparative analyses of parliamentary voting behaviour across different countries and parliaments. Yet parliamentary voting procedures differ dramatically across parliamentary chambers and ignoring these differences may, in the extreme, lead to meaningless comparisons. This paper presents a first glimpse at a comprehensive data collection effort covering more than 250 parliamentary chambers in 176 countries. Focusing on European legislatures it assesses what explains the differences in the rules among chambers. It is found that incentives linked to MPs’ visibility contribute to explain the transparency of the adopted voting procedures. 相似文献
80.
Till Immigration do us Part? Public Opinion and the Dilemma between Immigration Control and Bilateral Agreements 下载免费PDF全文
As a result of the initiative against mass immigration (MEI) Switzerland faces a dilemma between control of immigration and the continuation of bilateral agreements. This contribution raises two questions: First, have Swiss citizens' perceptions regarding the incompatibility between immigration control and bilateral agreements evolved since the vote on the MEI in February 2014? Second, what would Swiss citizens decide if they had to choose between the implementation of the MEI and the continuation of the bilateral strategy? We ground our analysis on data from the VOX surveys regarding the MEI and the more recent vote of November 2014 (Ecopop initiative). While Swiss voters still seem to be uncertain about the issue of compatibility, they nevertheless show support for the continuation of the bilateral agreements. Our analyses highlight the importance of age, trust in government and left‐right orientation for individual opinions towards the bilateral way. 相似文献