Trends in Assault: On the Relationship between the Assault Rate and Selected Social Indicators in Post-War Finland

This article examines to what extent different social indicators can explain statistically the development or changes in the volume of assaults. First, the development of recorded assault criminality in Finland during the time period 1950-2000 is examined. By comparison with victim surveys it is concluded that the longterm increase of recorded assaults reflects partly the real development but is also partly a result of the increased rate of detection of violence. The urbanization of Finnish society is perhaps the key factor behind this development. It has inevitably increased factual physical opportunities for different kinds of violent encounters but at the same time also the probability that such incidents are registered. As factors that could potentially explain shortterm variation in the assault rate, selected social indicators such as alcohol consumption, rate of immigration and unemployment are examined. To guard against spurious relationships due to highly influential or outlying data points, a robust method of estimation of the regression model - the least median of squares - is also used. Of the indicators examined, consumption, private consumers' expenditure and the clearance rate of assaults have the best explanatory power. However, although the relationship of these indicators with annual changes alcohol in the assault rate is statistically significant, there should be no illusion about the ability to predict the future development of assault rate with precision using such social indicators. It is stressed that the assault rate is also determined by qualitative factors connected with opportunities for crimes and criminal motivation that can hardly be compressed into statistical timeseries or subjected to quantitative measurement.     

2003 biennial dinner

Asia is crucial to the achievement of the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs). Considerable progress has been made to date. Further progress is achievable but not guaranteed. Much remains to be done, especially in South Asia. Future efforts should be informed by past successes whilst recognizing the diversity of experience. Asia still needs development assistance especially to support changes in policy; help shift priorities towards the poor; and encourage innovation. With the right policies, China can continue to substantially reduce levels of extreme poverty and South Asia could accelerate progress. Develop ment agencies need to support nationally led efforts, work with a variety of partners including Government, and target areas and sectors critical for poverty reduction in flexible ways. The Department for International Development (DFID) is increasing its budget for Asia and will continue to focus on the poorest countries and people. With political commitment and real partnership, poverty can be banished in Asia.     

Obituaries

Reports on Agricultural Development and Land Settlement in Palestine. By Lewis French, C.I.E., C.B.E. 13¼" × 8¼". Pp.112. Map. Jerusalem: Issued by the Palestine Government. December 23, 1931. 2s.

Native Education: Ceylon, Java, Formosa, the Philippines, French Indo‐China, and British Malaya. By the Hon. H. A.Wyndham. Oxford University Press. 10s. 6d.

The Indian Tangle. By Sir Albion Banerji, C.S.I., C.I.E. With a Foreword by the Rt. Hon. Earl Winterton, P.C., M.P. 7¾” × 5¼”. Pp.255. Hutchinson. 7s. 6d.

The Key to Freedom and Security in India. By an Indian Student of Political Science. With a Foreword by Professor Arnold Toynbee. 7½” × 5”. Pp. 297. Oxford University Press. 6s.

Sir Anthony Sherley and his Persian Adventure. Edited by Sir E. Denison Ross. The Broadway Travellers Series. Edited by Sir E. Denison Ross and Eileen Power. 9” × 5¾.” Pp. xxxviiii + 293. Maps and illustrations. London: Routledge. 1933. 12s. 6d.

The Shîte Religion: A History of Islam in Persia and Irak. By Dwight M. Donaldson. 10” × 6¼”. Pp. xxvi + 393. Illustrations. Luzac's Oriental Religions Series. Vol. VI. London: Luzac. 1933.

Ibn Yamin: Persice Ibn‐i‐Yamin. 100 short poems, the Persian text with paraphrase. By Brigadier‐General E. H. Rodwell, C.B., I.A. (ret.) 10¼” × 7”. Pp. xiv + 48. London: Kegan Paul, Trench, Trübner. 1933. 12s. 6d.

Caravan Cities. By M. Rostovtzeff. Translated by D. and T. Talbot Rice. Pp. xiv + 232. Plates xxxv., six figures in the text. Five maps and plans. Oxford: At the Clarendon Press. 1932. 15s.

Ibn Sa'ud — The Puritan King of Arabia. By Kenneth Williams. 8¼ × 5¾ Pp. 299. Frontispiece. Maps. Jonathan Cape. 8s. 6d. net.

King Faisal of ‘Iraq. By Mrs. Steuart Erskine. With an appreciation by Field‐Marshal Viscount Allenby, G.C.B., G.C.M.G. Foreword by H.E. Ja'far Pasha al Askari. 9½ × 6¼”. Pp. 288. Illustrations. Hutchinson. 18s. net.

L'ltalia e la Nuova Turchia. By Ugo Bassi. 1932. Modena: E. Bassi e Nipoti.

L'ltalia e l'Arabia Centrale. By Ugo Bassi. 1932. Modena: E. Bassi e Nipoti.

La Fine del Mandato Sull'Iraq e una Preoccupazione per L'ltalia. By Romolo Tritonj. Oriente Moderno, April, 1933.

Cairo to Persia. By Owen Tweedie. 9½” × 6¼”. Pp. x + 288. Illustrations. Maps. Jarrolds. 1933. 18s.

Murray's Handbook for Travellers in India, Burma and Ceylon Including all British India, the Portuguese and French Possessions, and the Indian States. 7¼” × 4¾"Pp. cxliv + 812. Maps and plans. Murray. 1933. 24s.

The Kabul Magazine Year Book. By the Kabul Magazine Literary Society. Printed in Persian with numerous photographic illustrations and coloured plates. 10¼” × 8”. Pp. 322.

Sabre and Saddle. By Lieut.‐Colonel E. A. W. Stotherd. With a Foreword by Sir Percy Sykes, K.C.I.E., C.B., C.M.G. 8¾” × 6". Pp. 302. Illustrations, maps, plans. Seeley, Service. 1933.

Indian Idealism. By Surendranath Dasgupta, M.A., Ph.D., Principal Sanskrit College, Calcutta. 8¾” × 5¾”. Pp. xxiii + 206. Cambridge University Press. 1933. 10s. 6d.

Kumbum Dschamba Ling Das Kloster der hunderttausend Bilder Maitreyas. Ein Ausschnitt aus Leben und Lehre des heutigen Lamaismus Mit 208 Abbildungen und Kunstdrucktafeln nach eigenen Aufnahmen, 412 Skizzen des Verfassers im Text, einer Lichtdruck‐und ciner Buntdrucktafel sowie einer Klosterkarte. Pp. xv, 555 + [1]. In Kommission bei F. A. Brockhaus, Leipzig. 1933.

Buddhists and Glaciers of Western Tibet. By Giotto Dainelli. 9¾” × 6¼”. Pp. xiii + 304. Thirty‐two plates. Map. London: Kegan Paul, Trench, Trübner. 1933. 18s.

Riddles of the Gobi Desert. By Sven Hedin. Demy 8vo. Pp. 392. 24 plates and map. Routledge.

India House Library: A Short Catalogue. Pp. ix + 533. 4to. Office of the High Commissioner. 1933.

Gordon in China. By Bernard M. Allen. 8” × “5½. Pp. ix + 222. Frontispiece. Maps. Macmillan and Co. 7s. 6d. net.

The Menace of Japan. By T.O'Conroy. 8¾ × 5¾ Pp.294. Illustrations. Maps. Hurst and Blackett. 12s. 6d. net.

The House of Exile. By Nora Waln. London: The Cresset Press, Ltd. 1933. 16s.

A Brief Summe of Geographie. Works issued by the Hakluyt Society. Second Series. No. LXIX. Edited with an introduction and notes by E. G. R. Taylor. 9” × 6". Pp. lvi + 210. Map. £111s. 6d.

Storm Centres in the Near East. By Sir Robert Windham Graves, K.C.M.G. Pp. 362, with illustrations. Hutchinson and Co. 21s.