STATES AND NON-STATES: THE LEVANT IN TURMOIL

This article reflects on the turmoil in the states of the Levant, particularly seen in the context of broader tensions between Iran and Saudi Arabia. Particular regard is given to the radical challenge of Sunni and largely Salafi jihadism; the disabling of large parts of the Middle East state system in the wake of the Arab Spring; the dramatic fall in global energy prices; the fraying of traditional alliances between Saudi Arabia, the US and other powers. The increase in sectarianism and conflicts over authority in Islam are also discussed.     

THE IRAN NUCLEAR NEGOTIATIONS: ONE YEAR ON

This article, written by the former British Ambassador to Iran, starts with an overview from an insider's perspective of the 15 years of diplomacy leading up to the July 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) regarding Iran's Nuclear capabilities. It discusses the merits of the plan and its prospects for the future. It examines the development of international economic engagement, and in particular argues that the western powers need to do far more to deliver an economic quid pro quo for Iran's nuclear concessions: if the situation is not appreciably better soon, it will be impossible for the US and its partners to argue credibly that they are not in breach of the JCPOA. The article concludes with a discussion of Iran's economic and political prospects in the light of the nuclear deal.     

Ethical Guidelines in Using Secret Intelligence for Public Security

Pre-emptive intelligence is seen as key to enabling the state to counter terrorism without alienating the minority communities from whom the terrorists hope to gain support. The international nature of jihadist terrorism is placing increasing demands on intelligence agencies to cooperate with new partners overseas and to extend their range of methods, human and technical, to acquire such intelligence. This pressure is creating ethical dilemmas for the agencies at a time when the methods of secret intelligence and their impact on individual rights are the subject of public controversy. This article discusses the implications of the requirement to produce and share actionable high-value intelligence, and suggests a set of ethical guidelines for the British intelligence community. These guidelines aim to help sustain public confidence in intelligence work and in the directions in which this work must develop in order to generate the pre-emptive intelligence needed for public security.     

Using Bayes’ theorem in behavioural crime linking of serial homicide

Purpose. The study extends research by Santtila et al. (2008) by investigating the effectiveness of linking cases of serial homicide using behavioural patterns of offenders, analysed through Bayesian reasoning. The study also investigates the informative value of individual behavioural variables in the linking process. Methods. Offender behaviour was coded from official documents relating to 116 solved homicide cases belonging to 19 separate series. The basis of the linkage analyses was 92 behaviours coded as present or absent in the case based on investigator observations on the crime scene. We developed a Bayesian method for linking crime cases and judged its accuracy using cross‐validation. We explored the information added by individual behavioural variables, first, by testing if the variable represented purely noise with respect to classification, and second, by excluding variables from the original model, one by one, by choosing the behaviour that had the smallest effect on classification accuracy. Results. The model achieved a classification accuracy of 83.6% whereas chance expectancy was 5.3%. In simulated scenarios of only one and two known cases in a series, the accuracy was 59.0 and 69.2%, respectively. No behavioural variable represented pure noise but the same level of accuracy was achieved by analysing a set of 15, as analysing all 92 variables. Conclusion. The study illustrates the utility of analysing individual behavioural variables through Bayesian reasoning for crime linking. Feasible applied use of the approach is illustrated by the effectiveness of analysing a small set of carefully chosen variables.     

No Evidence of Specific Deterrence under Penal Moderation: Imprisonment and Recidivism in Finland

International literature on prison effects on recidivism tends to find little evidence of specific deterrence. If anything, imprisonment seems more likely to increase than decrease rates of offending. The present study adds to this literature by examining imprisonment and recidivism in Finland, a nation characterized by an exceptionally moderate penal culture. It has been suggested that severe sanctions need to be imposed selectively in order for them to be effective. In this research, we estimated the impact of first imprisonment on recidivism in comparison with offenders sentenced to either suspended imprisonment or community service. Using data from government population registries, we controlled for a large number of legal and extra-legal confounding factors, including criminal history and socio-demographic characteristics. We found no evidence of reduced recidivism as a result of imprisonment. Instead, consistent with prior research, we find evidence of increased recidivism in certain offender categories. We conclude with a discussion of policy implications.     

Introducing Social Media Intelligence (SOCMINT)

Abstract

We introduce the latest member of the intelligence family. Joining IMINT, HUMINT, SIGINT and others is ‘SOCMINT’ – social media intelligence. In an age of ubiquitous social media it is the responsibility of the security community to admit SOCMINT into the national intelligence framework, but only when two important tests are passed. First, that it rests on solid methodological bedrock of collection, evidence, verification, understanding and application. Second, that the moral hazard it entails can be legitimately managed. This article offers a framework for how this can be done.