Money and politics in a small open economy

A time series analysis indicates monetary growth and the Gallup Poll in Canada are systematically related at ‘electoral cycle’ periodicities (5 to 20 quarters) under flexible exchange rates, and demonstrates the absence of an electoral component in Canadian monetary growth under fixed rates. These results confirm empirically a widely accepted extension of the Mundell-Fleming argument that monetary policy is effective only under flexible rates, which to my knowledge has not before been directly investigated: international constraints on the small open economy under fixed rates lead to the abandonment of monetary policy as an active instrument in electoral politics.     

Reactive Responses: The Complementary Role of Federal and State Courts

The recent revival of state constitutional law has contributedsignificantly to the development of a dynamic judicial federalism.While interaction between federal and state courts is hardlynovel, acknowledgments of reciprocity have occurred more frequentlythan in the past. The Burger Courts receptivity to state judicialactivism inaugurated an era marked by creativity as well ascooperation. Thus far, major departures from established practiceshave been limited to a readily identifiable and recurring numberof state courts. All the same, the case studies included inthis article range across a variety of factual contexts andexplore an impressive array of links, both explicit and implied,between the federal and state courts. A disquieting new requirement,introduced as the result of a 1983 Supreme Court decision, exactsof state judges an unambiguous declaration of reliance on independentstate grounds as the price of ensuring federal nonintervention.Whether judicial federalism will continue to flourish withinso confining a framework remains problematic.     

The Southern Presidential Primary: Regional Intentions With National Implications

Fifteen southern and border states have decided to hold presidentialprimaries around the second Tuesday in March 1988. Democraticparty reformers have backed this regional primary in hopes thatit will advantage politically moderate candidates for the presidency.This article discusses how enactment of the southern primarycame about and why this reform seems unlikely to achieve theintentions of the reformers. Four major criticisms of the reformsare discussed: 1) Republicans, not Democrats, could benefit;2) the importance of earlier primaries and caucuses—Iowaand New Hampshire in particular—could grow dramatically;3) the desired moderating influence on Democratic candidatescould be frustrated by plurality wins; and 4) the southern regionalprimary is not southern or regional but national.     

Threat, Anxiety, and Support of Antiterrorism Policies

The perception of threat and the experience of anxiety are distinct but related public reactions to terrorism. Anxiety increases risk aversion, potentially undercutting support for dangerous military action, consistent with terrorists' typical aims. Conversely, perceived threat increases a desire for retaliation and promotes animosity toward a threatening enemy, in line with the usual goals of affected governments. Findings from a national telephone survey confirm the differing political effects of anxiety and perceived threat. The minority of Americans who experienced high levels of anxiety in response to the September 11 attacks were less supportive of aggressive military action against terrorists, less approving of President Bush, and favored increased American isolationism. In contrast, the majority of Americans who perceived a high threat of future terrorism in the United States (but were not overly anxious) supported the Bush administration's antiterrorism policies domestically and internationally.