The Political (and Economic) Origins of Consumer Confidence

Economic conditions, the story usually goes, influence consumer confidence, which in turn influences both political evaluations and votes. But we have little sense of the origins of consumer confidence itself. It is generally assumed that monthly reports of the nation's level of consumer confidence respond to objective economic conditions. We argue that politics is important for understanding consumer sentiment beyond what we know from economic conditions. Specifically, we demonstrate a direct effect of political evaluations of the president's management of the economy, the party of the president, extraordinary political events, and monetary policy, as well as an indirect effect of media coverage of the economy, on consumer sentiment, after controlling for economic conditions. When news coverage is positive, citizens give favorable evaluations, leading to more positive sentiment. Our findings suggest that understanding the political economy requires an emphasis on the causal effect of politics as well as economics.     

Morphological findings of ‘cardiac concussion’ due to experimental blunt impact to the precordial region

The dog’s precordial region at the sternum was impacted with a mechanical elastic-cord propelled impactor at the velocity of 8.0 m/s. The left and right intraventricular pressures and electrocardiogram (ECG) were monitored continuously for 60 min after the impact. The micro- and ultra-structure of myocardium were examined. Localization of myocardial myoglobin (Mb), creatine kinase BB (CK-BB) and creatine kinase MM (CK-MM) as well as plasma membrane permeability were studied by immunohistochemical and lanthanum probe techniques. Upon the impact, abrupt over-pressures within both ventricles were recorded with transient depression of the left ventricular systolic pressure. In all the dogs, some rhythm- and conduction-disorders were noted, which lasted transiently and resumed to normal sinus rhythm. At autopsy, no gross injuries of the heart were detected, and microscopic examination showed no visible myocardial lesions. However, immunohistochemically, focal patchy loss of myocardial Mb, CK-BB and CK-MM was identified with scattered deposition of these substances between myocardial fibers elsewhere. Such changes as relaxed myofibrils with widened I band, contracted myofibrils and broken cristae of the mitochondria were observed in myocardial ultrastructure. Lanthanum particles deposited inside the mitochondria. These results indicate that increase in cardiac cell membrane permeability and ultrastructural damage in myocardium may be involved even in cardiac concussion.     

Effects of individual dental factors on genomic DNA analysis

The use in forensic medicine of methods pertaining to molecular biology has made it possible to identify human remains through the analysis of polymorphic profiles of human DNA. Voluntary, accidental, or natural postmortem degradation, as well as environmental conditions, influences the preservation state of the corpse, making it sometimes difficult to obtain biologic material suitable for genetic analysis (e.g., hair, soft and/or hard tissue). According to their anatomic/morphologic characteristics, dental formations are particularly resistant to external insults and are thus suitable for this kind of research. The purpose of this work, conducted on nonselected dental findings (presenting intrinsic characteristics similar to those usually found in forensic cases) that were homogeneous with regard to environmental factors, was to determine an operative protocol that will enable combination of the maximum availability of genomic DNA with the preservation of the morphologic characteristics of the tooth for classic anthropologic evaluations.     

Meeting the challenge: state revenue raising

Recent trends in state tax revenue reveal that overall reliance of states on taxes have been declining for the last 43 years. Faced with reduction in tax revenues, states have restructured their tax systems to meet public demand for more services. State income taxes are the one type of tax that has risen consistently. What causes state policy makers to rely on this type of tax? This research addresses this question.     

The absent Dutch: Dutch intellectuals and the congress for cultural freedom

During the 1950s and 1960s the Congress for Cultural Freedom was one of the main stages for anti-communist American and European writers and intellectuals to discuss the communist threat to the freedom of intellectual and cultural life. Most Western European countries were represented at CCF conferences and had their own national CCF branches, but the Netherlands was an exception. Dutch intellectuals participated very rarely in the conferences, and all efforts to establish a Dutch branch of the CCF failed. Possible explanations (the socially isolated position of some intellectuals, no strong tradition of political engagement among Dutch writers or artists, no lively climate of public debate, and an ambivalent perception of American culture and society) for this absence of Dutch intellectuals show clearly how national traditions can play a decisive role in determining the development of international networks.     

重修丝绸之路:迈向亚洲一体化

丝绸之路是指将东亚、中亚、南亚与地中海沿岸国家(包括北非和欧洲)连接在一起的、纵横交错的泛亚贸易交通网络。在过去的几十年中,随着全球化的不断深入,亚洲再度成为世界经济的重心。许多亚洲经济体成为了国际生产网络中不可分割的一部分,他们自身也从不断扩大的国际贸易、投资以及加速的经济增长中获益良多。然而,由于缺乏区域性连接,亚洲巨大的发展潜力尚未发挥出来。本文认为,缺乏全面的区域性连接是影响地区增长、阻碍亚洲乃至世界一体化进程的重要因素之一。鉴于此,亚洲应该加强地区通道建设,使之成为国际通道的一部分。本文还讨论了在通过泛亚运输基础设施建设实现地区连接的过程中,可能遇到的一系列问题和挑战。     

Displaying the Law: A Cross-disciplinary Learning Experiment Using the Internet and Multimedia Technology

The law is increasingly being displayed to its practitioners and subjects in new forms and through new media. Some of this technological change simply permits easier access to information and faster recording processes. However students are at the forefront of the attempt to provide new ways of representing legal dilemmas, problems and issues. How do students imagine and represent the law? This paper describes an experiment in which undergraduate students from quite different backgrounds examined topical legal issues and presented reports in visual form, choosing between three formats: CD-ROMs, videos and web pages. Participants came from two universities in Victoria; students from Victoria University were multimedia students, students from the University of Melbourne were criminology research methods students. They formed small teams, pooling their skills to carry out research projects on aspects of the law, including busking, football violence and how images of blood should be shown on film or TV. This article reviews the lessons of this collaborative exercise for understandings of the law.     

The effect of ECB communication on interest rates: An assessment

This paper reviews the literature on the communication policy of the European Central Bank (ECB) addressing two questions. First, to what extent has ECB communication affected interest rates? Second, to what extent has ECB communication affected the predictability of the ECB’s interest rate decisions? On the basis of a survey of empirical studies, it is concluded that various forms of ECB communication lead to more volatility. However, studies focusing on volatility cannot assess whether markets moved in the intended direction. To analyze whether this is the case, researchers have coded ECB communications. Studies using this approach yield evidence that communications generally move financial markets in the intended direction. There is also substantive evidence that ECB communications increase the predictability of interest decisions by the ECB Governing Council. Finally, the consequences of the fact that ECB officials often gave contrasting signals to market participants are analyzed. New evidence suggests that inconsistent communication causes agents to make less accurate predictions. The policy implication is that central bankers should take care that their statements are consistent.     

论创新党员学习机制

建设学习型政党，要求各级党组织引导党员立足本职，带头学习、加强学习、终身学习，使学习成为一种经常化、普遍化和制度化的行为。这就要从创新学习理念、学习制度、学习载体、学习工具等四个方面入手，探索创新党员长效学习机制，为建设学习型政党提供坚实的机制保证。