Explaining divergent responses to ethnic exclusion: evidence from two paired comparisons

This article asks why ethnic exclusion from executive-level state power leads to armed conflict in some cases but not in others. To answer this question the author develops a nine-factor model of ethnic conflict, which is used to investigate the diverging conflict trajectories of two pairs of ‘most similar’ ethnic groups. These include the Malinke in Guinea and Northerners in Côte d'Ivoire on the one hand, and Kurds in Syria and Turkey on the other. It is shown that varying responses to ethnic exclusion can mainly be traced back to three factors, which have so far been neglected in the ethnic conflict literature: the selectivity of state violence, the territorial reach of the state and the availability of cross-border sanctuaries. Ethnic rebellion occurs where weak territorial control and indiscriminate repression combine with external sanctuary. Conversely, violent escalation is avoided in a context of strong territorial control, selective repression and no external sanctuary.     

The More Things Change,the More They Stay the Same: the Swedish Local Government Elite between 1985 and 2005

This article examines the development of the main characteristics of the Swedish local political–administrative elite, by analysing repeated surveys, performed in 1985, 1991, 1999 and 2005, of all important leaders in a representative sample of 20 towns and cities. Despite the great changes that have occurred at the local government level, the local government elite retains a surprisingly high degree of homogeneity and stability over time. Although this elite has become increasingly gender equalised and professional, local problems are perceived to have become slightly more complex; meanwhile, the perceived influence and effectiveness of leaders in solving these problems has remained unchanged, probably because the perceived power and autonomy of local government to act effectively has declined somewhat. In contrast, the leaders' political capital (networks, democratic values and global relations) has remained strong and stable.     

You shouldn't feel that way! Extending the emotional victim effect through the mediating role of expectancy violation

Recent research has shown that the ‘emotional victim effect’ (an emotional victim is more readily believed than a nonemotional victim) is mediated by expectancy violation: people base their judgments about a victim's credibility on their expectations of the victim's suffering. Victims whose behavior is inconsistent with these expectations suffer a loss of credibility. In this article, we further examine the role of expectancy violation and explore possible negative effects of a victim's highly emotional post-crime reaction. Using several mediations, we demonstrate three important contributions to the existing literature. First, we demonstrate that, in the same way as expectancy violation mediates the effect from nonverbal emotional expression on perceived credibility, this mediating effect would also hold for the verbal expression of emotions. Second, we demonstrate that expectancy violation mediates the effect from a victim's verbal emotional expression on the observer's attitude toward the victim. More specifically, we demonstrate that a highly emotional written Victim Impact Statement (VIS) could lead to secondary victimization, dependent on the observer's expectations regarding the effects of the crime. Third, this article is the first to demonstrate that expectancy violation leads to a negative effect on people's acceptance of the VIS in the criminal justice procedure.     

Party politics of the right: Neo‐populist parties and the future of the West European party system

Radical Right‐Wing Populism in Western Europe. By HANS‐GEORG BETZ. New York: St. Martin's Press, 1994. Pp.x + 226, 22 tables, biblio. $18.95 (paper); $45.00 (cloth). ISBN 0–312–12195–4 and 0–312–08390.

Volkes Stimme? Rechtspopulismus in Europa. By Armin PFAHL‐TRAUGHBER with contributions by OLIVER SCHMIDTKE and CAS MUDDE. Bonn: Dietz, 1994. Pp.191, biblio. DM19.80 (paper). ISBN 3–8012–3059–7.

Wer wählt rechts? Die Wähler und Anhänger rechts‐extremistischer Parteien im vereinigten Deutschland. By JÜRGEN W. FALTER, in collaboration with MARKUS KLEIN. München: C.H. Beck, 1994. Pp.167, biblio. DM17.80 (paper). ISBN 3‐ 406–37442–5.

Rechtsextremismus in Deutschland. Voraussetzungen, Zusammenhänge, Wirkung. Edited by WOLFGANG BENZ. Frankfurt a.M.: S. Fischer, 1994 (new exp. and rev. edition). Pp.331, index. DM18.90 (paper). ISBN 3–596–12276–7.

The Dark Side of Europe. The Extreme Right Today. By GEOFFREY HARRIS, foreword by GLYN FORD. Edinburgh University Press, 1994 (2nd edition). Pp.xi + 265, index, £12.95 (paper). ISBN 0–7486–0466–9.

Rechtsextremismus: weiblich ‐ männlich? Eine Fallstudie zu geschlechtsspezifischen Lebensverläufen, Handlungsspielräumen und Orientierungsweisen. By URSULA BIRSL, foreword by PETER LOSCHE. Leverkusen: Leske + Budrich, 1994. Pp.369, biblio. DM48 (paper). ISBN 3–8100–1204–1.

Rechtsextremismus und Fremdenfeindlichkeit. Studien zur aktuellen Entwicklung. Edited by INSTITUT FÜR SOZIALFORSCHUNG. Frankfurt a.M./New York: Campus, 1994. Pp.219, biblio. DM18 (paper). ISBN 3–593–35026–2.

Racism, Ethnicity and Politics in Contemporary Europe. Edited by ALEC G. HARGREAVES and JEREMY LEAMAN. Gower House, Aldershot: Edward Elgar, 1995. Pp.296, index, £39.95 (cloth). ISBN 1–85278–8838–0.

Das Gewalt‐Dilemma. Gesellschaftliche Reaktionen auf fremdenfreindliche Gewalt und Rechtsextremismus. Edited by WILHELM HEITMEYER. Frankfurt a.M.: Suhrkamp, 1994. Pp.463, DM29.80 (paper). ISBN 3–518–11905–2.     

Africa's prospects and South Africa's leadership potential in the emerging markets century

This article examines Africa's role in an evolving international system where powerful emerging markets, such as bric, together with established powers are shaping economic trajectories. The specific focus is on South Africa as an aspiring leader on the African continent, and on its potential for becoming an emerging market shaping the global order together with bric and the West. It is unclear whether a changing global economy in which the postcolonial world plays a greater role will result in improved developmental prospects for Africans as African countries gradually reorient themselves from the West to the South, or whether relations with emerging markets will resemble neo-colonial ties with the West. South Africa's structural weakness, stemming from serious domestic problems of a social, political and economic nature, threatens to undermine its standing in Africa and its emerging market status.     

Forensic Comparison of Soil Samples Using Nondestructive Elemental Analysis

Soil can play an important role in forensic cases in linking suspects or objects to a crime scene by comparing samples from the crime scene with samples derived from items. This study uses an adapted ED‐XRF analysis (sieving instead of grinding to prevent destruction of microfossils) to produce elemental composition data of 20 elements. Different data processing techniques and statistical distances were evaluated using data from 50 samples and the log‐LR cost (C_llr). The best performing combination, Canberra distance, relative data, and square root values, is used to construct a discriminative model. Examples of the spatial resolution of the method in crime scenes are shown for three locations, and sampling strategy is discussed. Twelve test cases were analyzed, and results showed that the method is applicable. The study shows how the combination of an analysis technique, a database, and a discriminative model can be used to compare multiple soil samples quickly.     

Men Idle,Women Network: How Networks Help Female Legislators Succeed

Why do some lawmakers form denser professional networks than others? We extend existing theories of gendered networks, arguing that legislators use networking as a strategy to compensate for a challenging institutional environment. Using original data from Brazil, we provide survey‐based evidence that female representatives in the Chamber of Deputies engage in higher rates of intragender networking and have more profuse and diverse legislative networks than male deputies. We also provide suggestive evidence that these profuse legislative relationships pay off for women in the form of higher vote shares at election time.     

Age determination of blood spots in forensic medicine by force spectroscopy

We present a new tool for the estimation of the age of bloodstains, which could probably be used during forensic casework. For this, we used atomic force microscopy (AFM) for high-resolution imaging of erythrocytes in a blood sample and the detection of elasticity changes on a nanometer scale. For the analytic procedure we applied a fresh blood spot on a glass slide and started the AFM detection after drying of the blood drop. In a first step, an overview image was generated showing the presence of several red blood cells, which could easily be detected due to their typical "doughnut-like" appearance. The consecutively morphological investigations in a timeframe of 4 weeks could not show any alterations. Secondly, AFM was used to test the elasticity by recording force-distance curves. The measurements were performed immediately after drying, 1.5 h, 30 h and 31 days. The conditions were kept constant at room temperature (20 degrees C) and a humidity of 30%. The obtained elasticity parameters were plotted against a timeline and repeated several times. The elasticity pattern showed a decrease over time, which are most probably influenced by the alteration of the blood spot during the drying and coagulation process. The preliminary data demonstrates the capacity of this method to use it for development of calibration curves, which can be used for estimation of bloodstain ages during forensic investigations.     

Health care system change and the cross-border transfer of ideas: influence of the Dutch model on the 2007 German health reform

To increase understanding of the cross-border transfer of ideas through a case study of the 2007 German health reform, this article draws on Kingdon's approach of streams and follows two main objectives: first, to understand the extent to which the German health reform was actually influenced by the Dutch model and, second, in theoretical terms, to inform inductively on how ideas from abroad enter government agendas. The results show that the streams of problem recognition and policy proposals have not been predominantly influenced by the cross-border transfer of ideas from the Netherlands to Germany. The Dutch experience was taken into consideration only after a policy window opened by a shift in politics in the third, the political, stream: the change of government in 2005. In many respects, the way Germany learned from the Netherlands in this case sharply contrasts with an image of solving policy problems by either lesson drawing or transnational deliberation. Instead, the process was dominated by problem solving in the sphere of politics, that is, finding a way to prove the grand coalition was capable of acting.     

The Recognition of the Chinese Government and the Convention on International Civil Aviation

This article traces the membership and representation of Chinain the International Civil Aviation Organization. It examineswhich of the two governments claiming to represent China, theGovernment of the Republic of China (ROC) or the Governmentof the People's Republic of China (PRC), has, at any one time,been regarded as competent to exercise China's membership rightsunder the Convention on International Civil Aviation (ChicagoConvention). In particular, the article asks which governmentcan today validly designate "customs airports" in China, includingTaiwan, and exercise the various other rights in respect ofnon-scheduled and scheduled flights referred to in Articles5 and 6 of the Chicago Convention. It explains why airlinescan operate direct international air services to non-designatedairports in Taiwan without the special permission or other authorizationof the Government of the PRC, despite the latter being regardedas having complete and exclusive sovereignty over the airspaceabove Taiwan.