Cognitive dissonance and the effects of Voting Advice Applications on voting behaviour: evidence from the European Elections 2014

ABSTRACT

Voting Advice Applications (VAAs) – also known as Voting Engagement Applications – are online tools which inform users about their proximity to party positions before elections by indicating which parties are closest to the policy preferences of the individual voters. Referring to the theory of cognitive dissonance, this article examines the impact of using a VAA on voting behaviour by looking at the effect mechanisms. For the empirical analyses, we draw on data of a two-wave panel study we conducted before the European Elections 2014, thereby focusing on the German VAA – the Wahl-O-Mat. The findings show that irritation emerges if the preferred party is not positioned at the top of the VAA result list. In turn, a strong irritation can lead to a change in vote choice.     

Campaigns and the Selection of Policy-Seeking Representatives

Can voters learn meaningful information about candidates from their electoral campaigns? As with job market hiring, voters, like employers, cannot know the productivity of candidates, especially challengers, when they elect them. The real productivity of representatives only reveals itself after the election. We explore if the information revealed during the “hiring process” is a good signal of the legislative effort of elected representatives. In the incomplete information environment of election campaigns, candidates should turn to credible signals to indicate their “type” to voters. Campaigns—and campaigning—are means by which candidates can, in principle, signal their motivations to voters. Is a candidate’s behavior on the campaign trail informative about his or her behavior and effort as a legislator? Does it, for example, reveal whether a candidate will be more hard working and legislatively active? Using evidence from the European Parliament, we show that campaign activity prior to the election is not related to policy-seeking behavior in the legislature post-election. The finding also holds in two national-level settings and across a variety of measures of legislative effort. Those who campaign harder do seem more likely to win the election, but campaign effort seems to provide a poor guide to what the winner does once elected.     

The economic effects of constitutions: replicating—and extending—Persson and Tabellini

Persson and Tabellini (The Economic Effects of Constitutions, The MIT Press, Cambridge, 2003) show that presidential regimes and majoritarian election systems have important economic effects. Here, the number of countries is expanded and more recent data is used. In replicating and extending their analyses, we find that the effect of presidential regimes vanishes almost entirely. With regard to electoral systems, the original results are largely confirmed: majoritarian (as opposed to proportional) electoral systems lead to lower government expenditure, lower levels of rent seeking but also lower output per worker. The institutional details, such as the proportion of candidates that are not elected on party lists and district size, are particularly important.     

The European Commission–Appointment, preferences, and institutional relations

The paper analyzes the appointment of the European Commission as a strategic game between members of the European Parliament and the Council. The focal equilibrium results in commissioners that duplicate the policy preferences of national Council representatives. Different internal decision rules still prevent the Commission from being a Council clone in aggregate. Rather, it is predicted a priori that Commission policies are on average more in accord with the aggregate position of the Parliament than that of the Council. This prediction is confirmed for a dataset covering 66 dossiers with 162 controversial EU legislative proposals passed between 1999 and 2002.     

Politische Theorie und Ideengeschichte, Politisches System der Bundesrepublik, Politische Soziologie, Vergleichende Politikforschung, Europäische Union, Internationale Politik, Historische Politikforschung

Inhaltsübersicht   (RezensentInnen in Klammern) Literaturbericht    J?rg Faust / Stefan Leiderer: Zur Effektivit?t und politischen ?konomie der Entwicklungszusammenarbeit Politische Theorie und Ideengeschichte    Bluhm, Harald, und Jürgen Gebhardt: Politische Ideengeschichte im 20. Jahrhundert. Konzepte und Kritik (Philipp H?lzing) • Dryzek, John S., Bonnie Honig und Anne Phillips (eds.): The Oxford Handbook of Political Theory (Johannes Schmidt) • Ke?ler, Mario: Ossip K. Flechtheim. Politischer Wissenschaftler und Zukunftsdenker (1909–1998) (Wilhelm Bleek) • Priester, Karin: Populismus. Historische und aktuelle Erscheinungsformen (Florian Hartleb) • S?llner, Alfons: Fluchtpunkte. Studien zur politischen Ideengeschichte des 20. Jahrhunderts (Michael Becker) • Williams, Bernard: In the Beginning Was the Deed. Realism and Moralism in Political Argument (Carsten Quesel) • Doppelrezension: Henning, Christoph: Philosophie nach Marx. 100 Jahre Marxrezeption und die normative Sozialphilosophie der Gegenwart in der Kritik; Henning, Christoph (Hg.): Marxglossar (Felix Heidenreich) • Doppelrezension: Mouffe, Chantal: über das Politische. Wider die kosmopolitische Illusion; Nonhoff, Martin: Politischer Diskurs und Hegemonie. Das Projekt "Soziale Marktwirtschaft" (André Brodocz) Politisches System der Bundesrepublik    Van Ooyen, Robert Chr., und Martin H. M?llers (Hg.): Das Bundesverfassungsgericht im politischen System (Hubert Woltering) Politische Soziologie    Dolata, Ulrich, und Raymund Werle (Hg.): Gesellschaft und die Macht der Technik. Sozio?konomischer und institutioneller Wandel durch Technisierung (Georg Simonis) Vergleichende Politikforschung    Castles, Francis G. (ed.): The Disappearing State? Retrenchment realities in an age of globalization (Marius R. Busemeyer) • Clasen, Jochen, und Nico A. Siegel (eds.): Investigating Welfare State Change: The 'Dependent Variable Problem' in Comparative Analysis (Marius R. Busemeyer) Europ?ische Union    Huget, Holger: Demokratisierung der EU. Normative Demokratietheorie und Governance-Praxis im europ?ischen Mehrebenensystem (Andreas Wimmel) Internationale Politik    Eder, Franz, Gerhard Mangott und Martin Senn (eds.): Transatlantic Discord. Combating Terrorism and Proliferation, Preventing Crises (Alexander Siedschlag) • Marx, Johannes: Vielfalt oder Einheit der Theorien in den Internationalen Beziehungen. Eine systematische Rekonstruktion, Integration und Bewertung (Ralf J. Leiteritz) • Schmidt, Siegmar, Gunter Hellmann und Reinhard Wolf (Hg.): Handbuch zur Deutschen Au?enpolitik (Helga Haftendorn) • Wolter, Detlev: A United Nations for the 21st Century: From Reaction to Prevention. Towards an Effective and Efficient International Regime for Conflict Prevention and Peacebuilding (Andreas Heinemann-Grüder) • Young, Brigitte (Hg.): Die Politische ?konomie des Dienstleistungsabkommens (GATS). Gender in EU und China (Eva Hartmann) Historische Politikforschung    Kaelble, Hartmut: Sozialgeschichte Europas 1945 bis zur Gegenwart (Siegfried Weichlein) • Doppelrezension: Andres, Jan: "Auf Poesie ist die Sicherheit der Throne gegründet". Huldigungsrituale und Gelegenheitslyrik im 19. Jahrhundert; Schwengelbeck, Matthias: Die Politik des Zeremoniells. Huldigungsfeiern im langen 19. Jahrhundert (Rainer Schmidt)     

Analyzing trade opening in Ukraine: effects of a customs union with the EU

This paper analyzes the possible effects of a customs union between Ukraine and the European Union. The GTAP multi-country simulation model of Purdue University’s Center for Global Trade Analysis is applied. The welfare measure evaluated is the change in equivalent variation (EV). As all incomes in the model accrue to a representative household, EV fully assesses possible welfare benefits for Ukraine from bilateral tariff elimination on trade with the EU. As the model includes Ukraine in the aggregated “Former Soviet Union” region (FSU), EV is estimated for the FSU and then disaggregated on the industry level proportionally to trade shares. The results of our simulations suggest that Ukraine’s EV is particularly sensitive to the inclusion of the agricultural sector into a customs union. Due to the highly protected nature of this sector within the EU, Ukraine would be better off if agriculture were excluded from liberalization. If this scenario is assumed, Ukraine’s monetary gain would be in the order of $40 million.

金融危机后的俄罗斯

普京治下的经济复苏,改善了俄罗斯的财政状况,提高了人民的生活水平,但没有使俄罗斯经济实现成功转型。全球金融危机暴露了俄罗斯经济状况的本质:普京八年的俄罗斯经济只是"恢复性增长",而非以投资和创新所驱动的可持续性增长,对能源仍然高度依赖。虽然危机之后俄经济有所恢复,但与能源价格上涨密切相关,其现代化进程任重道远。2012年之后的俄罗斯仍然将是一个缺少竞争力且严重依赖能源资源出口的国家。     

<Emphasis Type="Italic">Society’s</Emphasis> Books of Note

Society’s Books of Note

Society’s Books of Note May/June 2010     

The impact of forced forensic psychiatric confinement on composition and structure in the personal networks of personality-disordered forensic psychiatric patients

This study explored to what extent the composition and structure of personal networks of personality-disordered forensic psychiatric patients changed before and after forced confinement in a forensic psychiatric centre. Semi-structured in-depth interviews with 36 patients and selected members of their networks were examined. During forensic psychiatric treatment, patients reported a decrease in network size, in the number of high-risk network members, and in the number of social ties between these high-risk network members. Personal relationships were of shorter duration, with lower levels of contact frequency and reciprocity. No changes were observed in the patients’ companionship, practical and emotional support networks. During forensic psychiatric treatment, patients reported some new relationships, especially with persons outside the forensic psychiatric centre. Information on compositional and structural personal network factors over time helps forensic mental health professionals to properly assess and manage the important dynamic social network conditions associated with recidivism.     

Zur verfassungsrechtlichen Beurteilung des Vertrags über Stabilit?t, Koordinierung und Steuerung in der Wirtschafts- und W?hrungsunion (Fiskalpakt)

Der Vertrag über Stabilit?t, Koordinierung und Steuerung in der Wirtschafts- und W?hrungsunion ("VSKS" - vulgo "Fiskalpakt") wurde dem ?sterreichischen Parlament als gesetz?ndernd bzw gesetzeserg?nzend zugeleitet. Er enth?lt jedoch einige verfassungs?ndernde Bestimmungen. Es sind dies Beschr?nkungen der Budgethoheit des Nationalrats, die übertragung von Hoheitsrechten auf Organe der EU, und eine neuartige Verpflichtung zur Normenkontrolle. Der VSKS bedürfte daher vor seiner Ratifikation der Erlassung eines Bundesverfassungsgesetzes. Dies deshalb, weil weder die Bestimmungen über die Ab?nderung von EU-Prim?rrecht (Art 50 Abs 1 Z 2 iVm Abs 4 B-VG) noch die Erm?chtigung zur übertragung von Hoheitsrechten (Art 9 Abs 2 B-VG), die derartige Verfassungs?nderungen decken k?nnten, auf den VSKS anwendbar sind.