Evolving Market Efficiency with an Application to Some Bulgarian Shares

With new technically advanced methods and computers at our disposal, the efficient market hypothesis is once again being debated. At the same time, we are witnessing an unprecedented growth in both existing and new financial markets. These new markets are often in economies which have just recently embraced free market economics; we term these stock markets infant markets. Such stock markets are obviously not efficient in allocating the supply of savings to productive capital. We do not test whether or not these infant markets are informationally efficient, but instead examine whether and how they are becoming more efficient. We propose modelling the excess returns of individual securities using a multi-factor model with time-varying coefficients and generalised auto-regressive conditional heteroskedastic (GARCH) errors. If the markets are becoming more informationally efficient or the agents are learning, we would expect this to manifest itself as the time-varying coefficients becoming more stable as time increases. We test our model using data on four Bulgarian shares. First, we estimate an AR(2) model and a GARCH-M(1,1) model for the shares. Then, we estimated our AR(2) model with time varying coefficients and GARCH type errors. We find varying levels of efficiency and varying speeds of movement towards efficiency within our sample of four shares.     

Enzyme activity of PGM1 in erythrocytes

The enzyme activity of phosphoglucomutase (PGM) has been investigated in red cell haemolysates from 142 individuals and compared to the sub-type as determined by isoelectric focusing. The 10 phenotypes showed significant differences in PGM-activity which indicates that there is a correlation between the level of activity and the isolelectric point of homozygotes. No indication of silent alleles or alleles with reduced activity was found in this collective.     

Recovery of decomposed and skeletal human remains in the "Green River Murder" Investigation. Implications for medical examiner/coroner and police

The Green River Murder Investigation in King County, Washington, is currently the longest active serial murder investigation in U.S. history. During its course, over 26 separate scenes with from one to five victims each have been processed. The experience of the authors is presented in order to acquaint other agencies with techniques of outdoor scene processing that have evolved during recovery of remains from Green River and other skeletal cases.     

Teenage suicide in King County, Washington. I. Rates of suicide for 26 years

The population-adjusted rate of teenage suicide in King County, Washington, was reviewed for the 26 years from 1959 to 1984. For the entire period, the rate did not change significantly. An abrupt change did occur during the middle of this period, but, for reasons discussed in the text, this may well represent a change in procedures and philosophy of death certification rather than a real change in rate. Reasons for the apparent discrepancy with national statistics are discussed.     

Driving less for better air: Impacts of a public information campaign

In the wake of the 1990 amendments to the Clean Air Act, localities across the United States initiated public information campaigns both to raise awareness of threats to air quality and to change behavior related to air pollution by recommending specific behavioral changes in the campaign messages. These campaigns are designed to reduce the health hazards associated with poor air quality and to avoid federal sanctions resulting from the failure to meet air quality standards. As in many other communities across the country, a coalition of government agencies and businesses initiated a public information campaign in the Atlanta metropolitan region to reduce certain targeted behaviors, mainly driving. A two‐stage model used to analyze data from a rolling sample survey shows that the centerpiece of the information campaign—air quality alerts—was effective in raising awareness and reducing driving in a segment of the population. When the overall information campaign was moderated by employers' participation in programs to improve air quality, drivers significantly reduced the number of miles they drove and the number of trips they took by car on days when air quality alerts were sounded. Public information campaigns can be successful in increasing awareness, but changing well‐established behaviors, such as driving, is likely to require institutional mediation to provide social contexts that support the behavioral change, as well. © 2003 by the Association for Public Policy Analysis and Management.