Differences in the predictive validity of actuarial risk assessments in relation to sex offender type

This study seeks to expand on the previously reported validity of the Static-99, RRASOR, MnSOST-R, and SORAG in predicting sexual recidivism utilizing a regional sample of offenders. The predictive validity of each test was determined utilizing subgroups of the sample based on each offender's known offense history. The effectiveness of each instrument varied depending on offender type. The Static-99 and SORAG were both significantly predictive of sexual, violent, and any recidivism for extra-familial child molesters, and all four tests were predictive of violent or any recidivism in this subgroup. For incest offenders, all four tests were at least moderately predictive of sexual recidivism, whereas the Static-99 and the SORAG were highly predictive of violent or any recidivism. None of the four tests established consistent predictive validity across recidivism categories in regard to rapists or hands-off offenders, however, the Static-99 and the SORAG were significant in terms of sexual recidivism.     

Book Reviews

Mac and Supermac

Alistair Horne, Macmillan, 1894–1956 : Volume I of the Official Biography. (London: Macmillan, 1988. £16.95. ISBN 0 333 27691)

Paul Kennedy, The Rise and Fall of the Great Powers: Economic Change and Military Conflict from 1500–2000 (London and Sydney, 1988)

Edward N. Luttwak, Strategy: The Logic of War and Peace (Harvard University Press, 1987)

Henry Butterfield Ryan, The Vision of Anglo‐America: The US‐UK Alliance and the Emerging Cold War, 1943–1946 (Cambridge University Press, 1987)     

An interactive model of attitude and risk/benefit formation regarding social issues

Decision analysis has become an increasingly useful tool for aiding decisionmakers in dealing with complex public and private sector decisions involving multiple objectives and uncertainty. An outgrowth of this discipline is Risk Assessment, which in part concerns how citizen attitudes, risks, and benefits regarding social issues evolve. It is hypothesized that such attitudes and beliefs are determined interactively. A general simultaneous equation model is developed consistent with this hypothesis. A hybrid estimation model and the technique of ridge regression combined with two stage least squares are developed to estimate the model's parameters and tested using data from a psychometric survey of citizen attitudes and beliefs regarding contemporary socially sensitive issues. The results verify the validity of the model and technique. The utility of this model for the policy making process as well as future theoretical and applied research are discussed.     

The discipline of international relations: still an American social science?

This article reviews the state of the discipline of international relations. It starts from statements made by the editors in their editorial published in the first issue of this journal. The editors noted that there seemed to have been less adherence to positivism in international relations than in other areas of political science and that there was both more opposition to positivism and more methodological and epistemological openness in international relations than in political science generally. The article outlines the current state of the field, focusing on the rationalist mainstream and then on the reflectivist alternatives, before looking at social constructivism, seeing it as the likely acceptable alternative to rationalism in the mainstream literature of the next decade. It then turns to examine whether international relations is still an American social science, before looking at the situation in the United Kingdom. It concludes that the editors' comments were indeed accurate, but that the fact that there is both more opposition to positivism in international relations and more openness in the UK academic community does not mean that the mainstream US literature is anything like as open or pluralist. The UK community is indeed more able to develop theory relevant to the globalised world at the new millennium, but the US academic community still dominates the discipline.     

New Labour: what's published is what counts

Books reviewed in this article:
Barrett-Brown, M. and Coates, K. (1996) The Blair Revelation: Deliverance for Whom?
Blackburn, R. and Plant, R. (eds) (1999) The Labour Government's Constitutional Reform Agenda.
Blair, T. (1996) New Britain: My Vision of a Young Country.
Brivati, B. and Bale, T. (eds) (1997) New Labour in Power: Precedents and Prospects.
Crewe, I., Gosschalk, B. and Bartle, J. (1998) Political Communications: Why Labour Won the General Election of 1997
Denver, D., Fisher, J., Cowley, P. and Pattie, C. (1998) British Elections and Parties Review, Volume 8: The 1997 General Election.
Driver, S. and Martell, L. (1998) New Labour: Politics after Thatcherism.
Ellison, N. (1994) Egalitarian Thought and Labour Politics: Retreating Visions.
Gamble, A. and Wright, T. (1999) The New Social Democracy.
Geddes, A. and Tonge, J. (eds) (1997) Labour's Landslide: The British General Election 1997.
Giddens, A. (1998) The Third Way: the Renewal of Social Democracy.
Hay, C. (1999) The Political Economy of New Labour: Labouring under False Pretences?
Hazell, R. (ed.) (1999) Constitutional Futures: A History of the Next Ten Years.
Jones, T. (1996) Remaking the Labour Party: From Gaitskell to Blair.
Shaw, E. (1996) The Labour Party Since 1945.
Taylor, G. (1997) Labour's Renewal? The Policy Review and Beyond.
Thompson, N. (1996) Political Economy and the Labour Party: The Economics of Democratic Socialism 1884–1995.
Worcester, R. and Mortimore, R. (1999) Explaining Labour's Landslide.