Causal inference and American political development: the case of the gag rule

Public Choice - We extend previous work on the role of politically motivated donors who contribute to candidates in an election with single dimension policy preferences. In a two-stage game wherein...     

Aviation Security,Risk Assessment,and Risk Aversion for Public Decisionmaking

This paper estimates risk reductions for each layer of security designed to prevent commercial passenger airliners from being commandeered by terrorists, kept under control for some time, and then crashed into specific targets. Probabilistic methods are used to characterize the uncertainty of rates of deterrence, detection, and disruption, as well as losses. Since homeland security decisionmakers tend to be risk‐averse because of the catastrophic or dire nature of the hazard or event, utility theory and Monte Carlo simulation methods are used to propagate uncertainties in calculations of net present value, expected utility, and probabilities of net benefit. We employ a “break‐even” cost‐benefit analysis to determine the minimum probability of an otherwise successful attack that is required for the benefit of security measures to equal their cost. In this context, we examine specific policy options: including Improvised Physical Secondary Barriers (IPSBs) in the array of aircraft security measures, including the Federal Air Marshal Service (FAMS), and including them both. Attack probabilities need to exceed 260 percent or 2.6 attacks per year to be 90 percent sure that FAMS is cost‐effective, whereas IPSBs have more than 90 percent chance of being cost‐effective even if attack probabilities are as low as 6 percent per year. A risk‐neutral analysis finds a policy option of adding IPSBs but not FAMS to the other measures to be preferred for all attack probabilities. However, a very risk‐averse decisionmaker is 48 percent likely to prefer to retain FAMS even if the attack probability is as low as 1 percent per year—a level of risk aversion exhibited by few, if any, government agencies. Overall, it seems that, even in an analysis that biases the consideration toward the opposite conclusion, far too much may currently be spent on security measures to address the problem of airline hijacking, and many spending reductions could likely be made with little or no consequent reduction of security.     

THE PUNDITS: SURVEYING THE FRONTIERS OF INDIA IN THE GREAT GAME

This article provides an overview of the development of the exploration, mapping and surveying of the frontier territories of India in the 19^th century and the context of the Great Game with Russia. It pays particular attention to the Pundits, the native surveyors trained by British officers who made long surveying journeys into the borderlands of the Himalayas and Tibet. It gives an account of the explorations of pundits including Nain Singh, Kishen Singh, Sarat Chandra Das, Kintup, and Ugyen Gatso.     

The CBC: Canadian? Regional? Popular? An examination of program objectives for English television

Abstract. Throughout its thirty-eight-year history, the cbc has been subject to almost constant controversy, The 1968 Broadcasting Act attempted to define more clearly the role of the Corporation within the broadcasting system by laying down certain broad objectives, but controversy continues, most recently at the crtc public hearings on the applications by the Corporation for renewal of its radio and television network licenses. This paper attempts to clarify five of the most controversial of the objectives: to define certain variables in terms of which the objectives can be quantified and cbc scores calculated; to establish target ranges within which the cbc's degree of success in achieving its objectives can be measured, both historically and at present; to construct a ‘grid’ whereby cbc probable audiences and program costs can be predicted; and to outline at least one possible strategy for the cbc to pursue in the future. the better to achieve its objectives given probable financial constraints. The paper deals primarily with the English television network, which came in for the bulk of the criticism at the crtc hearings, but could be extended to French television and, more difficult, to cbc radio. Sommaire. Durant les 38 années de son existence, Radio-Canada a fait l'objet de controverses presque constantes. La loi sur la radiodiffusion de 1968 a essayé de définir plus clairement le rôle de la Société dans le cadre du système de radiodiffusion en fixant certains objectifs généraux. Néanmoins, la controverse continue et Ie dernier cas s'est présenté aux audiences publiques du crtc au sujet des demandes de la Société pour le renouvellement des permis de son réseau de radio et de télévision. L'auteur de cette communication essaie d'éclaircir cinq des objectifs les plus controversés; de définir certaines variables par rapport auxquelles les objectifs peuvent êre quantifiés et les performances de Radio-Canada évaluées; d'établir les critères selon lesquels le degré de succès de Radio-Canada dans la réalisation de ses objectifs puisse êre mesuré, à la fois historiquement et à l'heure actuelle; d'élaborer une « grille « permettant d'estimer les auditoires probables et les coûts des programmes de Radio-Canada et d'exposer au moins une stratégie possible que la Société pourrait adopter à l'avenir et qui favoriserait la réalisation de ses objectifs, compte tenu des restrictions financières probables. Cet exposé porte surtout sur le réseau de télévision anglophone qui a été le plus critiqué aux audiences du crtc, mais il pourrait s'appliquer à la télévision francophone et avec plus de difficulté, A la radio.     

Couplets

“Couplets” moves back and forth, swapping thought images, turns of phrase and story lines conjured up to get inside the machine and spread of a thing. Curiosity is a thought muscle throwing weight against fake foundations. The airs of a day make rhythm promises and labor demands. Paying attention is a starting point but no guarantee when there’s no floor. Things are happening.     

A Second Scottish Independence Referendum: Should the Diaspora get a Vote?

The 2014 Scottish independence referendum settled little in terms of Scotland's constitutional future. The after-effects of what was the largest exercise in democracy in Scottish history certainly increased Scotland's devolved authority but, following withdrawal from the EU and with continuing differences and disagreements between the Westminster and Scottish governments, there have been increasing demands for a second referendum. One aspect of these conversations has been about the voting rights of Scots living outside Scotland, whose relationship with the nation would certainly be impacted by any successful vote for Scottish independence. And yet, they have had no voice in that decision and despite calls for their inclusion in any future vote, such inclusion remains unlikely. This article examines the reasons why such inclusion would be challenging and then considers what the Scottish diaspora think about Scottish independence and voting rights, by considering qualitative responses to a survey of members of the Scottish diaspora.     

Criminality among female drug users following an HIV risk-reduction intervention

The main objectives of this article are to determine the prevalence of criminality among a sample of female African American drug users and to examine change in criminality over time, including the correlates associated with this change. Data were collected from 336 adult women who participated in an HIV risk-reduction intervention focused on the context of the women's daily life. Face-to-face structured interviews were conducted at baseline, prior to enrolling in the intervention, and at follow-up, 6 months after completion of the intervention. Bivariate and correlated multivariate methods were utilized to examine changes in criminality and other behaviors over time. Both violent and nonviolent criminality declined significantly between baseline and follow-up assessments. Of the correlates considered, drug-using characteristics and victimization played the greatest role in explaining the decrease in criminality. Low self-control and depressive symptoms also contributed to the reduction in criminality. The findings suggest the importance of considering individual characteristics that may influence the women's criminal behavior as well as the impact of their routine activities.     

Skin penetration surrogate for the evaluation of less lethal kinetic energy munitions

Although the benefits of the use of less lethal kinetic energy munitions are numerous, there is a need to evaluate the munitions prior to deployment to ensure their intended effect. The objective of the current research was to validate a surrogate that could be used to predict the risk of penetration of these devices. Existing data from biomechanical testing with post-mortem human specimens (PMHS) served as the foundation for this research. Development of the surrogate involved simulating the various layers of the skin and underlying soft tissues using a combination of materials. A standardized 12-gauge impactor was used to assess each combination. The energy density that resulted in a 50% risk of penetration for the anterior thorax region (23.99 J/cm(2)) from the previous research was matched using a specific combination of layers. Twelve various combinations of materials were tested with the 50% risk of penetration determined. The final validated surrogate consisted of a Laceration Assessment Layer (LAL) of natural chamois and .6 cm of closed-cell foam over a Penetration Assessment Layer (PAL) of 20% ordnance gelatin. This surrogate predicted a 50% risk of penetration at 23.88 J/cm(2). Injury risk curves for the PMHS and surrogate development work are presented.     

Investigating the Determinants of the Street Code and its Relation to Offending among Adults

Theoretical and empirical consideration has long been given to the role of subcultural attitudes and how they relate to delinquency and crime. Recently, Anderson has reconceptualized these early attitudinal depictions by considering the formation and role of these specific attitudes or ‘code of the street’ among African-Americans in inner-city neighborhoods. A number of important findings have emerged from this literature, yet much remains to be considered. We contribute to this literature in three specific ways by examining: (1) the scope of street code attitudes across a wide variety of individuals—and not just inner-city African American (males) to assess the generalizability of these attitudes; (2) the correlates of street code attitudes; and (3) the extent to which street code attitudes mediate the relationship between various demographic and attitudinal (self-control) variables and crime. Theoretical implications and directions for future research are addressed.