Using multidimensional scaling for the analysis of sexual offence behaviour: A replication and some cautionary notes

Abstract

Crime scene profiling has received considerable attention, particularly in popular media. First, since low inter-rater reliability would affect the validity of profiling, we tested inter-rater agreement for 33 variables often used in manuals for the coding of crime-related behaviour. Thirty cases were chosen randomly from 146 cases of assault rape with unknown male offenders in Sweden during 1990–1994. Second, we used multidimensional scaling (MDS) with all 146 cases to replicate earlier work by Canter and Heritage (Journal of Forensic Psychiatry, 1, 185–212, 1990) regarding motivational dimensions in unknown assault rapists. On average, inter-rater reliability was good; physical behaviours were more reliably coded than were verbal behaviours. However, a two-dimensional MDS solution with the motivational dimensions suggested by Canter and Heritage was not replicated. We argue for better empirical support for the inclusion of specific variables in coding formats for crime scene information. This is particularly important for analyses like the MDS, since the number, representativity, and intercorrelations of such variables could affect results considerably.     

Is the Impact of Alcohol Consumption on Violence Relative to the Level of Consumption?

Two ideas concerning the link between bullying in school and violence on the streets are investigated. (1) Bullying and victimization in school is a product of the school situation and people's inability to choose their levels of exposure to others. According to this hypothesis, bullying is largely a phenomenon that is isolated to the school context. (II) Bullying behaviour in school and inflicting damage to others outside school is a reflection of a more general aggressive behaviour pattern and, hence, bullying in school and violence on the streets will, to a great extent, involve the same individuals. The literature offers suggestions that either could be the case. Participants were 2915 14-year-olds in a medium-sized county in Sweden who responded to a self-report questionnaire.Theresults showed that bullying others in school was strongly linked to violent behaviour and weapon-carrying on the streets, both among boys and girls. It was also found that bullying others in school was related to being violently victimized on the streets. The findings remained the same when statistically controlling for loitering and nights spent away from home, which were both related to bullying behaviour. It is concluded that bullying behaviour in school is in many cases a part of a more general violent and aggressive behaviour pattern and that preventive efforts targeting individuals with bullying behaviour in school could, according to the present study, decrease violence among adolescents out in the community as well.     

Notes on contributors

This article investigates the political impact of the introduction of state subsidies to political parties. The arguments for and against subsidising political parties are outlined. Different models of party subsidies, and their regulatory frameworks, are discussed. We find little evidence of a cross‐national impact of the introduction of party subsidies. The subsidies cannot explain the decline in party membership. Nor is there evidence to suggest that the subsidies were introduced as a response to membership decline. There is no support for the allegation that party subsidies lead to the petrification of party systems. The subsidies have not meant that other income sources have lost their significance for political parties.     

Recidivism is related to psychopathy (PCL-R) in a group of men convicted of homicide

It is well known that psychopaths are a group with high risk for criminality. Despite that, researchers and clinicians have not yet agreed on a general cause of psychopathy. However Raine [Raine, A. (2002). Biosocial studies of antisocial and violent behavior in children and adults: A review. Journal of Abnormal Child Psychology, 30, 311-326.] advocated a biosocial model of violent behaviour where the greatest risk for criminal behaviour occurred when both heredity and environmental risk factors (e.g., social class, childhood history) were present. In this follow-up study, 35 men convicted of homicide were assessed retrospectively for psychopathy according to the Psychopathy Checklist-Revised (PCL-R). Information on personal history, as well as from legal documents and records of offences committed by the subjects was also obtained. Fourteen of the 35 men were classified as psychopaths. Two men, both rated as psychopaths, had criminal parents. Twenty-seven of the men had a social relationship with their victim, and eleven out of these were rated as psychopaths. There was no difference in PCL-R scores between those who had a social relationship with their victim and those who did not. The psychopaths relapsed more frequently than the nonpsychopaths into criminality after their prison term. This result confirms previous research indicating that psychopathy is a risk factor for recidivism. It is, therefore, very important that psychopaths get the best possible treatment, aftercare, and supervision.     

Biological maturation and social development: A longitudinal study of some adjustment processes from mid-adolescence to adulthood

The role of biological maturity in behaviors in adolescence which most often are considered as negative by adults was investigated for a normal group of girls. In mid-adolescence early matured girls were found to play truant, smoke hashish, get drunk, pilfer, ignore parents' prohibitions, considerably more often than did late maturing girls. These differences between biological age groups were mediated by the association with older peer groups and they leveled out in late adolescence. Data on alcohol consumption and crime at adult age showed little association with biological maturation. A hypothesis was tested suggesting that early biological maturation may have negative long-term consequences within the education domain. In accord with this assumption, a considerably smaller percentage of girls among the early maturers had a theoretical education above the obligatory nine-year compulsory schooling than among the late maturing girls. The association between biological maturation and adult education was significant also after controlling for standard predictors of education, such as the girls' intelligence and the social status of the home. The requirement of conducting longitudinal studies when investigating issues connected with maturation was strongly emphasized.The research presented here was supported by funds to D. Magnusson from the Swedish Terecentenary Foundation and the Swedish Council for Planning and Coordination of Research.Received Ph.D. from the University of Stockholm. Current research interest is development.Received Ph.D. from University of Stockholm. Current research interest is development.Received Ph.D. from University of California at Berkeley. Current research interest is Social psychology.     

Russian defense spending after 2010: the interplay of personal,domestic, and foreign policy interests

Since 2010, Russia’s defense spending has seen an average annual real growth of 10%, causing a profound shift in the composition of government expenditure. This article examines the formal and informal processes through which Russia’s level of defense spending is determined and identifies personal, domestic, and foreign policy interests behind the rise in defense expenditures. Drawing on a combination of elite interviews and document and news analyses, I argue that domestic political and socioeconomic factors are at least as important as geopolitical and security ones in explaining Russia’s decision to push defense to the forefront of the political agenda. The findings suggest that high levels of defense spending may be politically sustainable in Russia, at least in the medium term, even though it comes at the cost of other public goods.     

Psychopathy (PCL-R) as a Predictor of Violent Recidivism Among Criminal Offenders with Schizophrenia

Hare's Psychopathy Checklist-Revised (PCL-R) was used to test the hypothesis that psychopathy predicts violent recidivism in a cohort subjected to forensic psychiatric investigation and consisting of male violent offenders with schizophrenia (N = 202). Psychopathy was assessed with retrospective file-based ratings. Mean follow-up time after detainment was 51 months. Twenty-two percent of the offenders had a PCL-R score 26 (cutoff), and the base rate for violent recidivism (reconvictions) during follow-up was 21%. Survival analysis revealed that psychopathy was strongly associated to violent recidivism (log-rank = 17.71, df = 1, p < 0.0001). The area under the curve (AUC) of the receiver operating characteristics (ROC) of PCL-R total score to predict violent recidivism varied between different time frames from .64 to .75. Cox regression analyses revealed that other potential risk factors could not equally well or better explain violent recidivism in the cohort than psychopathy as measured by PCL-R.