Medicaid reform: programming solutions to the equity problem

This paper demonstrates the application of a mathematical programming model to a longstanding policy issue in the Medicaid reform debate: the redistribution of program funds necessary to achieve equity in eligibility and benefit coverage across states. The model is used to estimate the potential degree of equity achievable in the current Medicaid system given various budgetary and political constraints. Two model simulations, based on a 1979 data set for aged recipients of Supplementary Security Income, are presented. The results indicate that half or more of the interstate differences in spending for this population group are due to actuarial and efficiency factors rather than deviations from equity potential. The implications of eliminating the remaining differences are discussed.     

Choosing appropriate techniques for socio-political forecasting

After defining scientific forecasting, the crucial role of assumptions in such forecasts is explicated. This is followed by a discussion of the representations upon which forecasting systems are based. Six variables are then introduced to capture differences in socio-political forecasting circumstances: level of detail, accuracy, agreement on problem representation, robustness-brittleness, number of variables and interdependencies, and disturbance. A categorization of forecasting approaches - expert based, Bayesian, extremal statistical, and rule based - is offered. These forecasting approaches are then cross-referenced with the forecasting circumstances to produce recommendations for choosing an appropriate forecasting technique in a given policy circumstance. Most examples in the article are drawn from the realm of foreign policy and international politics, and the cross-referencing section concentrates on foreign energy policy examples.     

Determining an optimum percentage of defendants to release before trial: Applying inventory modeling concepts to legal policy problems

Some aspects of determining what proportion of defendants to release before trial are discussed using cost and other data obtained from judges, prosecutors, defense attorneys, and bail project directors in twenty-three cities. Various holding costs, releasing costs, and percentages of defendants held are used. Smooth curves are fitted to the data points to determine at what percentage of defendants held the total cost curve bottoms out. The effects of varying the costs and the cities, the causal implications of why the optimum percentage differs substantially from the actual percentage, and the policy implications of using the analysis in pretrial release policy and in reducing the total costs are shown. Ways in which the model can be expanded to obtain insights into the optimum level of various kinds of due process and law enforcement are also indicated.     

CREATING NEW TECHNOLOGY-BASED ORGANIZATIONS: A SYSTEM DYNAMICS MODEL

While the study of mature organizations and bureaucracies is well established, there has been comparatively little examination of the creation and development of new organizations. What work has been done is highly fragmented, primarily by discipline, and concentrates on different facets of a complex phenomenon. Following a literature review and classification this article attempts a conceptual integration; it proposes a system dynamics model for the creation and development of one particular organizational type: new, technology based organizations. Drawing upon concepts from ecology, the central concept of the model is that new venture creation takes place within, and is thus dependent upon, a larger context of "ecosystem" consisting of environmental resources (technical expertise, capital, services) and existing inhabitants (individuals, firms, and institutions). Intraorganizational factors are also discussed including a set of proposed measures for new venture success. The article closes with some suggestions for the direction of future research and describes a research project the authors have recently begun.     

Bystander Intervention,Bullying, and Victimization: A Multilevel Analysis of New Zealand High Schools

This study examines the association between schools and student bullying behaviors and victimization among a nationally representative sample (N = 9,107) of New Zealand high school students. In particular, the study sought to explore the role of characteristics of schools and school culture with respect to bystander behavior, while controlling for individual student factors related to victimization and bullying behaviors. Results indicated that a total of 6% of students report being bullied weekly or more often and 5% of students reported bullying other students at least weekly. Results of multilevel analyses suggested that schools characterized by students taking action to stop bullying were associated with less victimization and less reported bullying among students. In contrast, in schools where students reported teachers take action to stop bullying, there was no decline in victimization or bullying. Overall, these findings support whole-school approaches that aid students to take action to stop bullying.