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81.
Stuart Nagel 《政策研究评论》1982,2(2):224-229
Rationalism in management science tends to mean attempting to determine the benefits and costs of the alternative decisions under consideration, and then picking the one that is best on benefits minus costs. Incrementalism tends to mean determining the decisions that actually get made under various circumstances, and then working with those existing decision rules as the basis for making adjustments to consider special or changing circumstances. Those two approaches can be well illustrated with the problem of attempting to determine what criminal sentences should be legislated to cover given crimes and prior records. The analysis tends to show that a rationalist approach is more effective in achieving societal goals when (1) alternative policies can be meaningfully related to those goals, and (2) existing decisions reflect individual goals which are generally in conflict with societal goals. An incrementalist approach is more effective when either of those criteria is absent, which is so when seeking to arrive at legislatively determined nondiscretionary criminal sentencing. 相似文献
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Stuart Umpleby 《Policy Sciences》1970,1(1):361-375
The growth of the planning function of government raises the question of how planning can be accomplished by democratic means. A new technological device—the teaching computer—seems to be ideally suited for disscussions between experts and the public on issues of medium and long-range planning. The teaching computer can be thought of as a mass communications system with feedback.The author wishes to acknowledge research support from the Program on the Social Implications of Science and Technology at the University of Illinois under National Science Foundation grant GR-60. The research described is being carried out through the Institute of Communications Research. The facility being used is located at the Computer-based Education Research Laboratory of the University of Illinois which is supported in part by the National Science Foundation under grant GF-81 and the Advanced Research Projects Agency under grant ONR-Nonr 3985 (08). This paper was presented at the second International Future Research Conference held in Kyoto, Japan, April 10–16, 1970. 相似文献
84.
There are two approaches to predicting election outcomes: (1) a historical approach, which uses past election results alongside macroeconomic and political variables to forecast election results up to a year in advance, and (2) a campaign-oriented approach, which uses current campaign trends to forecast vote shares at the end of the campaign. They are in some way at odds—one approach says the campaign doesn't matter, the other focuses entirely on the campaign. This article considers whether the two approaches might be usefully combined; it considers whether the prediction errors in historical models may be related to trends during the campaign. That possibility is tested here using 17 elections in the US, UK and Canada, combining historical predictions and automated content analyses of campaign-period media content. Results suggest that campaigns do not account for errors in the historical predictions; but there may be other ways in which campaigns matter in conjunction with historical models. 相似文献
85.
Pituitary tumor apoplexy refers to a clinical syndrome precipitated by the expansion of a pituitary adenoma by hemorrhage or infarction. Individuals may present with myriad signs, including sudden onset of severe headache, visual changes, altered mental status, cranial nerve palsies, and hormonal dysfunction. This disorder constitutes a medical emergency and warrants an expedited evaluation, diagnosis, and treatment to prevent the potential sequelae of permanent visual loss, endocrine abnormalities, or death. We report a case of sudden death from undiagnosed pituitary tumor apoplexy. The decedent was evaluated by medical personnel on three occasions in the week prior to her death for severe headache, nausea, vomiting, and photophobia. Postmortem examination demonstrated a hemorrhagic infarction of a pituitary adenoma with necrosis and expansion out of the sella turcica. The recognition of and treatment for a patient with pituitary tumor apoplexy requires a rapid multidisciplinary effort. Failure of prompt diagnosis may be fatal and require a medico-legal death investigation for sudden and unexpected death. 相似文献
86.
Febres J Shorey RC Brasfield H Zucosky HC Ninnemann A Elmquist J Bucossi MM Andersen SM Schonbrun YC Stuart GL 《Journal of interpersonal violence》2012,27(15):3115-3126
The substantial increase in the enrollment of women in batterer intervention programs (BIPs) over the past 30 years has greatly outpaced research on women who perpetrate intimate partner violence (IPV). As a result, it is unknown whether existing programs, which were originally designed to treat male perpetrators, are effective at preventing recidivism among women. Recent research shows that men who perpetrate IPV may also aggress against nonintimate partners, children, and animals, and that the reach of their aggressive tendencies has implications for treatment. Conducting similar investigations on women who perpetrate IPV may help to inform treatment delivery in BIPs. This study examined the prevalence of adulthood animal abuse perpetration and its association with psychological and physical IPV perpetration in a sample of women arrested for domestic violence (N = 87). Seventeen percent (n = 15) of the women committed at least one act of animal abuse since the age of 18, in contrast to the 0.28% prevalence rate reported in the general population. The overrepresentation of animal abuse in this sample was consistent with that of men arrested for domestic violence. Furthermore, women who reported committing animal abuse as an adult showed moderately higher rates of psychological aggression and physical assault perpetration against their partners, relative to women who did not report animal abuse. Implications for future research are discussed. 相似文献
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Drawing on two experiments embedded in online surveys, this article examines the impact of news photos on support for military action. In 2011, respondents were asked about support for ongoing military involvement in Afghanistan while being randomly exposed to one of two photos—one of a soldier with a child, the other of a soldier with a gun. The former photo increased expressed support for war; and the effect was greater for those who self-identify as being very interested in international affairs. Three years later, a follow-up experiment was fielded that looked both at the past intervention in Afghanistan and ongoing interventions in Syria; results were very similar. Both experiments speak to the potentially profound role of mass media in generating support (or not) for foreign military engagements, and the increased impact of frames on those who are more attentive to the issue domain. 相似文献
90.
Becoming “Copwise”: Policing,Culture, and the Collateral Consequences of Street‐Level Criminalization 下载免费PDF全文
Forrest Stuart 《Law & society review》2016,50(2):279-313
Over the last four decades, the United States has witnessed a historic expansion of its criminal justice system. This article examines how street‐level criminalization transforms the cultural contexts of poor urban communities. Drawing on five years of fieldwork in Los Angeles’ Skid Row–the site of one of the most aggressive zero‐tolerance policing campaigns to date–the study finds that residents develop and deploy a particular cultural frame–“cop wisdom”–by which they render seemingly‐random police activity more legible, predictable, and manipulable. Armed with this interpretive schema, “copwise” residents engage in new forms of self‐presentation in public, movement through the daily round, and informal social control in order to deflect police scrutiny and forestall street stops. While these techniques allow residents to reduce unwanted police contact, this often comes at the expense of individual and collective well‐being by precluding social interaction, exacerbating stigma, and contributing to animosity in public space. 相似文献