Regierungsabwahl ohne Regierungsneuwahl

Ohne Zusammenfassung Dieser Kommentar zur Bundestagswahl wurde am 4. Oktober 2005 der Redaktion der PVS eingereicht. Die Autoren bedanken sich bei der Redaktion der PVS und bei Thomas Gschwend für Verbesserungsvorschl?ge, die am 12. Oktober 2005 in die Endversion eingearbeitet wurden.     

Sachpolitik oder Parteipolitik?

The article analyzes the roll call voting behavior of German Länder governments in the Bundesrat from 1990 to 2005. We examine if, when, and to what extent the German Bundesrat is dominated by federal party politics rather than by an appropriate conflict of policy interest between states and state governments. We develop and apply a method to separate the effect of policy preferences and of parties’ politics on the voting behavior of Länder governments.     

Hypothesis Testing in the Bayesian Framework

While the Bayesian parameter estimation has gained a wider acknowledgement among political scientists, they seem to have less discussed the Bayesian version of hypothesis testing. This paper introduces two Bayesian approaches to hypothesis testing: one based on estimated posterior distributions and the other based on Bayes factors. By using an example based on a linear regression model, I demonstrate similarities and differences not only between the null‐hypothesis significance tests and Bayesian hypothesis tests, but also those among two different Bayesian approaches, which are also critically discussed.     

Personal identification from human remains by mitochondrial DNA sequencing

The authors report four cases in which severely damaged human remains were identified by mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) sequencing. Degraded DNA was extracted from highly adipoceratous tissues using the phenol-chloroform method and polymerase chain reaction amplified for sequencing of two hypervariable regions, hypervariable region 1 and hypervariable region 2, of mitochondrial DNA. They also sequenced these regions of blood samples that were obtained from the presumptive mother or sister of the human remains. The sequencing results were compared with each other and with the Anderson's sequence. It was concluded from the sequence data that a lower part of a body in case 1 and some organs in case 2 were from the same woman, and a human head in case 3 and a female body in case 4 were from the relative of a presumptive mother and a sister, respectively.     

Determinants of civil war in post-colonial Asia, 1950-1992: the role of trade openness and economic development

Although Asia has experienced civil war about as often as Sub-SaharanAfrica during the post-World War II era, there have been fewsystematic investigations into the determinants of civil warin Asia. This article examines the effects of trade opennessand economic development on the onset of civil war in post-colonialAsia, controlling for political, demographic, and geographicfactors. Analyzing data on post-colonial Asian states between1950 and 1992, we find that the onset of civil war is less likelywith increased trade openness. However, when taking into accountinteraction between trade openness and economic development,we discover that increased trade openness reduces the likelihoodof civil war onset significantly only in the context of higheconomic development. This result is robust with different modelspecifications.     

Age Estimation by Amino Acid Racemization in Human Teeth

Abstract: When an unidentified body is found, it is essential to establish the personal identity of the body in addition to investigating the cause of death. Identification is one of the most important functions of forensic dentistry. Fingerprint, dental, and DNA analysis can be used to accurately identify a body. However, if no information is available for identification, age estimation can contribute to the resolution of a case. The authors have been using aspartic acid racemization rates in dentin (D‐aspartic acid/L ‐ aspartic acid : D/L Asp) as an index for age estimation and have obtained satisfactory results. We report five cases of age estimation using the racemization method. In all five cases, estimated ages were accurate within a range ±3 years. We conclude that the racemization method is a reliable and practical method for estimating age.     

Age Estimation by Racemization Method in Teeth: Application of Aspartic Acid,Glutamate, and Alanine

Abstract: Here, we report on an experimental approach of simultaneous determination of various amino acids racemization (AAR) rates in teeth. We evaluated the measurements of aspartic acid (Asp), glutamate (Glu), and alanine (Ala) isolated from dentin. Asx D/L rates from total amino acid fraction, generally used for age estimation, showed high correlation (r = 0.98) with age. As Glx and Ala showed very slow racemization kinetics in TA, we performed further analysis of the acid‐soluble protein (SP) fraction. The results supported improved correlation between age and D/L rates for Glu (r = 0.84) and Ala (r = 0.85), as well as for Asp (r = 0.98). By providing further elucidation on dentin protein racemization, the technique offers a considerable opportunity to involve other amino acids in age estimation studies. As the process does not require additional separation steps, the method can be easily adapted to existing protocols.     

Die Eigendynamik zur Eindimensionalität des Parteienwettbewerbs: eine Simulationsstudie

While German ideological space is often characterized with two dimensions, empirical estimation demonstrates that party positions can be placed on a uni-dimensional scale. This seems to be inconsistent with conventional spatial models of party competition, since parties should, accordingly, exhaust the two-dimensional space to maximize their votes. This paper suggests an alternative spatial model which adjusts or removes some restrictive assumptions of the conventional models. Most importantly, the model suggested here allows parties to influence the salience and (non-)separability of both dimensions at voters’ decision processes. The simulation results demonstrate that the vote-maximizing parties can coordinate themselves in favor of inequality of the salience or non-separability of both dimensions. This, in turn, leads to a certain level of unidimensionality of party positions.     

The effect of incumbency on ideological and valence perceptions of parties in multilevel polities

Public Choice - A number of studies recently have investigated party position-taking in multilevel polities. Given the attempts of federally organized parties to tailor their messages to their...