Forecasting Errors in the Averseness of Apologizing

Apologizing is often seen as the appropriate response after a transgression for perpetrators. Yet, despite the positive effects that apologies elicit after situations of conflict, they are not always delivered easily. We argue that this is due—at least in part—to perpetrators overestimating the averseness of apologizing, thus committing a forecasting error. Across two laboratory experiments and one autobiographical recall study, we demonstrate that perpetrators overestimate the averseness they will experience when apologizing compared to the averseness they experience when they actually apologize. Moreover, we show that this effect is driven by a misconstrual of the effects of an apology. Perpetrators overestimate the potentially negative effects of apologizing while simultaneously underestimating the potentially positive effects of apologizing. This forecasting error may have a negative effect on the initiation of the reconciliation process, due to perpetrators believing that apologizing is more averse than it actually is.     

Framing Capital Punishment in Japan: Avoidance,Ambivalence, and Atonement

This article examines how two of Japan’s largest newspapers frame death penalty issues. Through a content analysis of 7,153 Asahi and Nikkei articles in the 66-month period from January 1, 2007 to June 30, 2012, 11 death penalty frames are identified: inevitability, atonement by dying, atonement by living, victims’ rights and emotions, human rights, miscarriage of justice, calls for discussion, life without parole, deterrence, public support, and retribution. In addition to frames, we examined who the main voices are in each article on capital punishment. We found that avoidance and ambivalence are the two main approaches taken by Asahi and Nikkei to cover death penalty issues, and the most surprising finding is the high salience of atonement as a frame for thinking about capital punishment. In Japan, atonement is used to justify (atone by dying) and oppose (atone by living) the death penalty. Although atonement by living in prison and atonement by dying at the gallows imply radically different outcomes, the flexibility of the atonement frame may suggest new possibilities for Japan’s anti-death penalty movement.     

Do bone elasticity and postmortem interval affect forensic fractographic analyses?

Forensic fractographic features of bone reliably establish crack propagation in perimortem injuries. We investigated if similar fracture surface features characterize postmortem fractures. Experimentally induced peri- and postmortem fractures were used to assess if fractographic features vary as bone elasticity decreases during the postmortem interval (PMI). Thirty-seven unembalmed, defleshed human femoral shafts from males and females aged 33–81 years were fractured at varying PMIs with a drop test frame using a three-point bending setup and recorded with a high-speed camera. Vital statistics, cause of death, PMI length, temperature, humidity, collagen percentage, water loss, fracture energy, and fractography scores were recorded for each sample. Results showed that fractographic features associated with perimortem fractures were expressed in PMIs up to 40,600 accumulated degree hours (ADH), or 60 warm weather days. Hackle was the most consistently expressed feature, occurring in all fractures regardless of ADH. The most variable characteristics were wake features (78.4%) and arrest ridges (70.3%). Collagen percentage did not correlate strongly with ADH (r = −0.04, p = 0.81); however, there was a strong significant correlation between ADH and water loss (r = 0.74, p < 0.001). Multinomial logistic regression showed no association between fractographic feature expression and ADH or collagen percentage. In conclusion, forensic fractographic features reliably determine initiation and directionality of crack propagation in experimentally induced PMIs up to 40,600 ADH, demonstrating the utility of this method into the recent postmortem interval. This expression of reliable fractographic features throughout the early PMI intimates these characteristics may not be useful standalone features for discerning peri- versus postmortem fractures.     

Estimation of stress in child neglect from thymic involution.

It is difficult to evaluate the extent of stress in cases of suspected child abuse/neglect in a medico-legal autopsy. We have previously reported that stress due to abuse/neglect was found to have led to thymic involution. To elucidate the influence upon thymocytes differentiation, we compared the proportion of the thymocyte subpopulation in the thymus of a neglected child with one in an age-matched control obtained from cardiac surgery. We found that the relative number of CD4+ CD8+ double positive (DP) thymocytes decreased in the neglected child. It was presumed that the selective decrease in the number of the immature DP thymocytes with CD3- to low bcl-2low caused the thymic involution in the neglected child. It was suggested that an alteration in the proportion of thymocytes subpopulation might be used as an index of stress in cases of child abuse/neglect.     

Genotyping for DQA1 and PM loci in urine using PCR-based amplification: effects of sample volume, storage temperature, preservatives, and aging on DNA extraction and typing.

Urine is often the sample of choice for drug screening in aviation/general forensic toxicology and in workplace drug testing. In some instances, the origin of the submitted samples may be challenged because of the medicolegal and socioeconomic consequences of a positive drug test. Methods for individualization of biological samples have reached a new boundary with the application of the polymerase chain reaction (PCR) in DNA profiling, but a successful characterization of the urine specimens depends on the quantity and quality of DNA present in the samples. Therefore, the present study investigated the influence of storage conditions, sample volume, concentration modes, extraction procedures, and chemical preservations on the quantity of DNA recovered, as well as the success rate of PCR-based genotyping for DQA1 and PM loci in urine. Urine specimens from male and female volunteers were divided and stored at various temperatures for up to 30 days. The results suggested that sample purification by dialfiltration, using 3000-100,000 molecular weight cut-off filters, did not enhance DNA recovery and typing rate as compared with simple centrifugation procedures. Extraction of urinary DNA by the organic method and by the resin method gave comparable typing results. Larger sample volume yielded a higher amount of DNA, but the typing rates were not affected for sample volumes between 1 and 5 ml. The quantifiable amounts of DNA present were found to be greater in female (14-200 ng/ml) than in male (4-60 ng/ml) samples and decreased with the elapsed time under both room temperature (RT) and frozen storage. Typing of the male samples also demonstrated that RT storage samples produced significantly higher success rates than that of frozen samples, while there was only marginal difference in the DNA typing rates among the conditions tested using female samples. Successful assignment of DQA1 + PM genotype was achieved for all samples of fresh urine, independent of gender, starting sample volume, or concentration method. Preservation by 0.25% sodium azide was acceptable for sample storage at 4 degrees C during a period of 30 days. For longer storage duration, freezing at -70 degrees C may be more appropriate. Thus, the applicability of the DQA1 + PM typing was clearly demonstrated for individualization of urine samples.     

GC/MS determination of zolpidem in postmortem specimens in a voluntary intoxication

An ingestion of an unknown quantity of Ivadal (zolpidem) tablets in a case of drug abuse is described. The authors report a new and fast method of analysing and determining the zolpidem concentration in postmortem specimens. Quantitation of zolpidem was performed by ethyl acetate extraction from alkalinized body fluids before GC/MS analysis. The analyses were performed without any complex sample clean-up steps and with little sample material. Postmortem concentrations of zolpidem in body fluids are given. The proposed method is a rapid procedure of analysis in cases of deliberate poisoning with the sedative-hypnotic drug, zolpidem.     

Policy design and public support for carbon tax: Evidence from a 2018 US national online survey experiment

Public support for policy instruments is influenced by perceptions of how benefits and costs are distributed across various groups. We examine different carbon tax designs outlining different ways to distribute tax revenues. Using a national online sample of 1,606 US respondents, we examine support for a $20/ton carbon tax that is: (1) revenue neutral: revenue is returned to citizens via tax cuts; (2) compensation-focused: revenue is directed to helping actors disproportionately hurt by the tax; (3) mitigation-focused: revenue funds projects reducing carbon emissions; and (4) adaptation-focused: revenue is directed to enhancing community resilience to extreme weather events. We find devoting revenue to mitigation raises overall support for carbon tax by 6.3 per cent versus the control (54.9 per cent) where no information on spending is provided. Other frames raise support in specific subgroups only. Revenue neutrality raises support among lower-income households (+6.6 per cent) and political independents (+9.4 per cent), while compensation increases support among lower-income repondents (+6.1 per cent).     

Can the power of platforms be harnessed for governance?

Although not as eye-catching as their business counterparts, many public and private institutions are currently experimenting with using platforms as a strategy of governance. Governance platforms are now being constructed by a wide array of actors at different geographical scales and across a wide range of issue areas. Although often enabled by digital technology, governance platforms fundamentally embody a new organizing logic to achieve distributed participation and mobilization. While private platforms are transforming the way that companies create and market their products or services and shifting the fundamental logic of how value is produced and appropriated, can this powerful organizing logic be harnessed for public as well as private purposes? We investigate how governance platforms generate powerful effects and survey the extant literature on governance platforms. We conclude that governance platforms do demonstrate promise, although they face a number of challenges.