The bush administration's security strategy: Implications for transatlantic relations

There are signs of growing transatlantic estrangement over multiple international issues. An important catalyst for this estrangement is the National Security Strategy (NSS) that the Bush administration promulgated in September 2002, a document that is a detailed imperial blueprint. Despite its pretensions, however, it is not a global strategy, but instead appears to apply primarily to the 'Islamic Arc'--the territory from North Africa to the border of India. The administration's security strategy has important implications for the transatlantic relationship, since the United States is encouraging NATO to become a junior partner for missions throughout the Islamic Arc. Given the growing divergence in US and European interests and policy perspectives, the role that the Bush administration envisages for NATO is probably not sustainable. The 'West' was an artificial geostrategic concept that needed an extraordinarily threatening common adversary (the Soviet Union) to give it substance. The US and its allies will continue to drift apart strategically, and the Bush administration's security strategy may actually hasten that process. It is uncertain, however, whether the European Union will achieve the cohesion necessary to counterbalance US power. The main task facing statesmen on both sides of the Atlantic is to learn how to disagree about specific policies without becoming disagreeable.     

WOMEN, DIVORCE, AND ECONOMIC RISK

This article examines the context of mothers' economic risk postdivorce. Data collected from 212 divorced custodial mothers and 225 divorced noncustodial fathers are used to illustrate income dynamics pre- and postdivorce as well as differences in income distribution between men and women. Findings confirm trends uncovered in other studies: Women's economic decline appears to be more pronounced than men's. Risk factors encompassed by various systemic levels are summarized and discussed as a context for understanding and intervention. Specific recommendations for policy are offered.     

Multiple objectives in environmental protection programs

This research demonstrates the need for and the usefulness of a multi-dimensional approach to the management of environmental programs. While the thrust of the paper is toward environmental quality programs the conceptual development is appropriate for many public sector programs. The paper describes an experiment in the determination of multi-dimensional objectives within three programs in a state environmental quality program. In addition, measures of effectiveness, based on the multi-dimensional objectives, are proposed as relevant measures of program effectiveness.This research was sponsored in part by the Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Resources under contract SPC 412070 and in part by the Center for the Study of Environmental Policy, The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, Pennsylvania.     

Accurately assessing elderly fall deaths using hospital discharge and vital statistics data

Historically, fatal injury monitoring and surveillance have relied on mortality data derived from death certificates (DC). However, problems associated with utilizing DC have been well documented. Recently, access to and utilization of hospital discharge data (HDD) have offered a new and important secondary source of data regarding in-hospital deaths. However, studies have shown that discrepancies between the HDD and the corresponding DC often exist. This discrepancy was especially evident when comparing HDD to the vital statistics data (VSD) for deaths by falls among those aged 65 and over in 19 states.This was a retrospective forensic review of elderly (age 65 and over) fall-associated fatalities (E880-E888) identified from HDD and VSD in Allegheny County, Pennsylvania, between 1997 and 1998. Seventy-seven cases were identified, with the original manner of death listed as natural (34), suicide (1), and accidental (42) on the DC. Following a forensic review of the cases, the manner of the death on the DC should have been changed from natural to accidental in 28% (n = 12) of the cases, representing an undercount in the VSD. Undercounts were due to a failure of clinicians to account for the significance of a fall event that contributed to subsequent pathology and death. In addition, in that 22% (n = 17) of the HDD fall-associated deaths, the fall did not contribute directly or sequentially to the underlying cause of death, thereby representing an overcount in the HDD.Based on these findings we recommend (1) elderly fall surveillance systems should only count HDD E-coded falls that demonstrate a serious traumatic injury which directly or subsequently results in death, (2) all in-hospital fall-associated deaths should be reported to and reviewed by coroner/Medical Examiner offices for determination of the cause and manner of death, and (3) physicians should be better educated in properly completing death certificates.     

The Transformation of the Western State: The Growth of Democracy,Autocracy, and State Power Since 1800

This article uses POLITY II, a new dataset on the authority traits of 155 countries, to assess some general historical arguments about the dynamics of political change in Europe and Latin America from 1800 to 1986. The analysis, relying mainly on graphs, focuses first on the shifting balance between democratic and autocratic patterns in each world region and identifies some of the internal and international circumstances underlying the trends, and deviations from them. Trends in three indicators of state power also are examined in the two regions: the state's capacity to direct social and economic life, the coherence of political institutions, and military manpower. The state's capacity has increased steadily in both regions; coherence has increased in the European countries but not Latin America; while military power has fluctuated widley in both regions. The article is foundational to a series of more detailed longitudinal studies of the processes of state growth. Ted Robert Gurr is a professor of government and politics at the University of Maryland and Distinguished Scholar at the University's Center for International Development and Conflict Management (Mill Building, University of Maryland, College Park, MD 20742). Among his 14 books and monographs areWhy Men Rebel (awarded the Woodrow Wilson Prize as best book in political science of 1970).Patterns of Authority: A comparative Basis for Political Inquiry (with Harry Eckstein, 1975), andViolence in America, (3d edition. 1989). He is engaged in a long-term global study of minorities' involvement in conflict and its consequences and resolution. Keith Jaggers is a Ph.D. candidate in the Department of Political Science at the University of Colorado and research assistant in the Department's Center for Comparative Politics, Campus Box 333, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO 80309. He is co-author with Will H. Moore of “Deprivation, Mobilization, and the State,” recently published in theJournal of Developing Societies, and is currently working on an empirical study of the impact of war on the growth of the state. Will H. Moore is a Ph.D. candidate in the Department of Political Science at the University of Colorado and research assistant in the Department's Center for Comparative Politics. He is also a co-author with Maro Ellena of a forthcoming article inWestern Political Quarterly on the cross-national determinants of political violence. His current research interests include the resolution of internal wars and the formation of coercive states.     

Insights from Ted Palmer: experimental criminology in a different era

Objectives  

Report insights from the career of the noted evaluation researcher, Ted Palmer, on emerging issues in correctional research and correctional treatment.     

The role of intelligence on performance on the Inventory of Legal Knowledge (ILK)

Previous research has shown that individuals with intellectual disabilities perform in the feigning range on malingering measures even when other data suggest that they are performing optimally. However, few studies to date have gone beyond intellectual disabilities and studied the full range of intelligence. Additionally, there are no data available examining the relationship between intelligence and performance on the Inventory of Legal Knowledge (ILK). The relationship between intelligence and performance on malingering tests is important because individuals with intellectual deficits may be incorrectly identified as malingering on these tests. The current study used a sample of state psychiatric hospital residents, adjudicated incompetent to proceed, and a sample of undergraduate university students to examine the relationship between intelligence and performance on the ILK. Results indicated three items on the ILK are correlated with intelligence and total scores were moderately correlated. Participants were further broken into groups using categorical ranges of Intelligence Quotient (IQ). Results were mixed regarding the relationship between ranges of IQ and performance on the ILK. Future directions and implications of this study are discussed.