A Global Model for Forecasting Political Instability

Examining onsets of political instability in countries worldwide from 1955 to 2003, we develop a model that distinguishes countries that experienced instability from those that remained stable with a two-year lead time and over 80% accuracy. Intriguingly, the model uses few variables and a simple specification. The model is accurate in forecasting the onsets of both violent civil wars and nonviolent democratic reversals, suggesting common factors in both types of change. Whereas regime type is typically measured using linear or binary indicators of democracy/autocracy derived from the 21-point Polity scale, the model uses a nonlinear five-category measure of regime type based on the Polity components. This new measure of regime type emerges as the most powerful predictor of instability onsets, leading us to conclude that political institutions, properly specified, and not economic conditions, demography, or geography, are the most important predictors of the onset of political instability.     

Blast Suppression Foam,Aqueous Gel Blocks,and their Effect on Subsequent Analysis of Forensic Evidence*

In addition to having blast mitigation properties, aqueous foam concentrate AFC-380 blast suppression foam is designed to capture aerosolized chemical, biological, and radioactive particles during render-safe procedures of explosive devices. Exposure to aqueous environments and surfactants may negatively affect forensic evidence found at the scene, but the effects of AFC-380 foam and aqueous gel on the preservation and subsequent analysis of forensic evidence have not previously been investigated. Sebaceous finger and palm prints and DNA samples on paper, cardboard, tape, and various metal and plastic items, along with hairs, carpet and yarn fibers, and inks and documents, were exposed to AFC-380 foam. Similar mock evidence was also exposed to a superabsorbent gel of the type found in aqueous gel blocks used for shrapnel containment. Exposure to foam or aqueous gel was associated with a dilution effect for recovered DNA samples, but quality of the samples was not substantially affected. In contrast, exposure to AFC-380 foam or gel was detrimental to development of latent finger and palm prints on any substrate. Neither the hair nor the fiber samples were affected by exposure to either the foam or gel. Indented writing on the document samples was detrimentally affected by foam or gel exposure, but not inks and toners. The results from this study indicate that most types of forensic evidence recovered after being exposed to aqueous gel or blast suppression foam can be reliably analyzed, but latent finger and palm prints may be adversely affected.     

Politics,leadership, and experience in designing Ontario's cabinet

Abstract: Why are cabinet decision‐making systems designed the way they are? Traditional approaches to this question stress the importance of representational imperatives (i.e., region, language and gender), the need for managerial capacity and collegiality in complex organizations, or a particular government's fiscal or policy program. While these approaches have merit, they fail to pay sufficient attention to the fact that cabinet decision‐making systems are in the first instance very intimate reflections and extensions of the political instincts, personal aptitudes, and governing experience of first ministers. The author sets out to understand recent reforms to Ontario cabinet decision‐making in precisely this way ‐ how did Premier Michael Harris' sense of his government's mandate, his personal approach to decision‐making, and the practical lessons learned over the course of his government's first mandate influence the design of Ontario's cabinet decision‐making system between 1995 and 1999? This article begins with a short history of Ontario's cabinet decision‐making system, focusing on the period from 1968 to 1995. It then provides details of reforms introduced between 1995 and 1999 and concludes with some thoughts on how Premier Harris' political instincts, personal aptitudes, and governing experience influenced these reforms. Sommaire: Pourquoi les systèmes de prise de décisions du Cabinet sont‐ils conçus comme ils le sont? Les réponses traditionnelles à cette question soulignent l'impor‐tance des impératifs de représentation (c.‐à‐d. la région, la langue et le sexe), le besoin de compétence en matière de gestion et la collégialité dans les organismes complexes, ou bien un programme politique ou budgétaire particulier du gouvernement. Ces approches sont valables, mais elles ne tiennent pas suffisamment compte du fait que les systemes de prise de décisions du Cabinet sont, avant tout, le fruit de reflexions très approfondies et d'instincts politiques, d'aptitudes personnelles, et de l'expérience gouvernementale des premiers ministres. L'auteur de cet article essaie de comprendre, précisément dans ce sens, les récentes réformes en matière de prise de décisions au Cabinet de 1'Ontario: comment est‐ce que l'idée qu'a Michael Harris du mandat de son gouvernement, son approche personnelle face à la prise de décisions, et les leçons pratiques tirées de son premier mandat (1995–1999) ont‐elles influencé la conception du système de prise de décisions du Cabinet de l'Ontario? L'auteur commence par brosser un bref historique du système de prise de décisions du Cabinet de l'Ontario, en se penchant tout particulièrement sur la période allant de 1968 A 1995. Ensuite, il présente en détail les réformes introduites de 1995 à 1999 et conclut par quelques réflexions sur la manière dont les instincts politiques du Premier ministre Harris, ses aptitudes personnelles et son expérience du gouvernement ont influencé ces réformes.     

THE CHANGING NATURE OF RURAL AMERICA1

Rural regions are changing, both in terms of economic dispersal and population patterns. Rural growth is attributed to technological innovation, improving capacity to deal with impending problems as well as improving quality of life, and intercommunity linkage. For some communities, this means the prospects of indigenous economic development.     

Discrepancy between Mother and Child Perceptions of Their Relationship: II. Consequences for Children Considered within the Context of Maternal Physical Illness

Discrepancies between parent and child perceptions of parenting have been well established. The current study addressed whether discrepancies in one dimension of parenting, the parent-child relationship, are associated with child adjustment difficulties concurrently and longitudinally. In particular, it was hypothesized that greater discrepancies in mother and child perceptions of parenting would be associated with child adjustment difficulties. Furthermore, it was hypothesized that families experiencing a stressor—in this case, maternal infection with the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)—would experience larger discrepancies than families in which the mother is noninfected and that maternal HIV infection would moderate the association between discrepant views and child adjustment. Participants were 183 African-American women (61 HIV infected; 122 noninfected) and one of their noninfected children. All participants were from the inner-city area of New Orleans. Results indicated that discrepancies in mother and child perceptions of their relationship was associated with mother and child reports of externalizing behavior problems concurrently and longitudinally. In addition, discrepancies were significantly higher in families experiencing maternal HIV infection than in the noninfected group. However, with one exception, maternal HIV status failed to moderate the relationship between discrepancies in perception and child adjustment, indicating that discrepancies play a similar role in both types of families. Clinical implications of the present results are discussed.     

Discussion of 'The Rise of China in Chinese Eyes'

In a response to Yan Xuetong's paper, 'The Rise of China in Chinese Eyes', Ted Osius (writing in August 1999) discusses Dr Yan's perspective on Chinese history and the question of whether China's rise will be peaceful. Mr Osius argues that, while we cannot know for certain what China's future holds, the Clinton‐Gore Administration has been clear in its goal of integrating China into the leadership ranks of the world community.     

The Impact of Mandatory Waiting Periods and Parental Consent Laws on the Timing of Abortion and State of Occurrence among Adolescents in Mississippi and South Carolina

Individual data on induced abortions from Mississippi and South Carolina are used to examine the effect of parental consent laws and mandatory delay statutes on two outcomes among teens: the point in pregnancy at which the abortion occurs and whether teens obtain abortions in or outside their state of residence. No effect of either law was found on the timing and location of abortion among minors relative to older teens in South Carolina. In Mississippi, however, both laws are associated with an increase in the proportion of abortions performed out of the state and the parental consent statute with later abortions. The conclusion is that Mississippi's 24‐hour as compared with South Carolina's one‐hour delay requirement, and Mississippi's two‐parent as contrasted with South Carolina's one‐parent consent statute explain the stronger behavioral response in Mississippi. © 2001 by the Association for Public Policy Management and Ananlysis.