Adding rooms onto a house we love: Central banking after the global financial crisis

This article examines the extent to which central bankers have been willing and able to rethink their beliefs about monetary policy in the wake of the global financial crisis. We show that despite the upheaval, the core pre‐crisis monetary policy paradigm remains relatively intact: central bankers believe that they should primarily pursue price stability through targeting a low inflation rate in a transparent manner, and that they need operational independence in order to achieve this goal. In a bid to address post‐crisis conditions and maintain their credibility, however, central bankers have also layered new elements onto this paradigmatic core. We document both the resilience of pre‐crisis beliefs and the process of layering using computer‐assisted text analysis and qualitative analysis of 13,586 speeches given between 1997 and 2017 by central bankers from around the world.     

Invisible Populations and the #MeToo Movement

The #MeToo movement has done a great deal to address sexual abuse and violence. There is no doubt that justice may occur when the right person speaks out. However, what happens when the wrong people—that is, people of color, the working class women, and transgender people— speak out on the same issue? When these “wrong people” do speak out, they are discredited, marginalized, and silenced by being ignored. This Viewpoint essay addresses two populations that have been overlooked by the #MeToo movement: women of color and transgender people. The essay concludes with recommendations for how the movement can move forward given the criticisms around the absence of diversity and transparency.     

Virginia's Revenue Forecasting Process and Models

In Virginia, major differences between revenue forecasts and actual revenue collections raised questions from legislators about the adequacy of the state's econometric forecasting models and the forecasting process itself. Consequently, Virginia's process and models were examined by the Joint Legislative Audit and Review Commission (JLARC), a legislative watchdog agency. The review found most of the differences could be attributed to declining economic factors and not poor forecasting. However, a surprisingly large component of the forecast was based on undocumented judgmental inputs that required greater oversight. Other states in similar circumstances may wish to evaluate their own forecasting process and econometric models using the JLARC approach.     

Weakening partisanship and the higher educated in Britain

Abstract. The decline in support for traditional political parties in a number of Western democracies is often attributed to the effects of recent educational expansion and a consequent rise in cognitive mobilisation in the electorate. The thesis that support for the two major parties in Britain is lowest among the young educated is tested here, using survey data for the period 1964–1983. The analysis indicates that for only a short time in the early 1970s was there evidence of such a relationship, and that differences in major-party support which are related to age and to educational achievement have all but disappeared by the 1980s. Moreover, the findings cast serious doubt upon the validity of current operationalisations of 'cognitive mobilisation'.     

Incidence and correlates of bulimic behavior in a female high school population

To investigate the incidence and correlates of bulimic behavior, 1268 high school females were surveyed. A 47-item questionnaire was used to identify a group of students that would meet the DSM-III criteria for a probable diagnosis of bulimia. Students were then compared across the four content areas of demographics; body perception and weight information; dieting, exercise and menstrual behavior; and frequency of bingeing and purging behavior. Results indicated that 4.9% of the students met rigorous criteria for the diagnosis of bulimia. Between-group comparisons indicated that body dissatisfaction, drive for thinness, and chronicity of dieting differentiated the two groups.This work was supported by Biomedical Research Grant #RR5476, the Sears Allstate Foundation, and the George and Tina Barr Foundation.Main interest is eating disorders.