Unemployment and crime: the role of apprehension

An increase in the unemployment rate decreases the opportunity cost of crime and increases the crime rate according to standard microeconomics models. However, a large body of empirical research has shown that an increase in unemployment may increase or decrease crime. By incorporating the return to crime into standard economic models, this paper shows that an increase in unemployment, as in recessions, decreases the opportunity cost of crime and the return to crime as well. As a result, the effect of unemployment on crime is ambiguous and depends on the apprehension rate. An increase in the unemployment rate tends to decrease the crime rate at lower apprehension rates, but to increase it at higher apprehension rates. An increase in the generosity of unemployment insurance benefits does not necessarily reduce the crime rate, and the effect of more generous unemployment insurance on crime depends again on the apprehension rate.     

PROSPECTS FOR BRITISH BUSINESS IN ASIA

This article reflects his address to members of the Society on 12 November 2007.     

On the reliability of Chinese economic data

China is no exception to the rule that economic data for developing countries suffer from substantial margins of error. R. P. Sinha, however, exaggerates the shortcomings of Chinese economic data. A brief review of evidence regarding statistical capacity and statistical veracity supports the view that economic data emanating from the People's Republic represent the fruits of Peking's increasingly effective efforts to monitor China's economy. For China, as for India, Meiji Japan or pre‐industrial Europe, careful empirical research can and does produce results which are not guesses, but estimates of actual economic magnitudes.     

Palestine under the mandate

Asia's First Modern Revolution: Mongolia Proclaims Its Independence in 1911. Urgunge Onon and Derek Pritchatt. Leiden, E. J. Brill. 1990. Pp. 203, Appendices, Gloss. Bibliog. Notes, Index, Map. $59.00.