Staatseingriffe im Markt fuer Versicherung gegen Naturkatastrophen

Wir fassen kurz die wichtigsten Ergebnisse unserer Länderstudien im Gebäudeversicherungsmarkt zusammen. Wir versuchen aus unseren Beobachtungen Schlüsse zu ziehen, wie die Versicherung gegen Naturkatastrophen institutionell organisiert werden sollte. Wir kommen zum Ergebnis, dass aus Gründen der Effizienz (niedrigere Verwaltungs‐ und Vertriebskosten) und um Probleme der Risikoselektion zu vermeiden, öffentlichen Monopolen auf diesem Markt eine wichtige Rolle zukommen sollte. Ein weiterer gewichtiger Vorteil der Monopollösung ist die Tatsache, dass diese Institutionen starke Anreize haben, sich für eine effiziente Prävention einzusetzen.     

Yemen and the Arab Spring: Elite Struggles,State Collapse and Regional Security

Yemen, the poorest and most populous country on the Arabian Peninsula, has long been a prime candidate to join the failed state club. After the wave of uprisings sweeping through the Middle East reached the country in early 2011, the already high levels of instability and violence reached new heights and threatened to accelerate a steady march towards collapse. Even though a variety of scenarios can be identified for the future of Yemen, the most likely paths all imply a period of prolonged instability. This will carry significant consequences for regional and international security, in particular, by providing al Qaeda's local franchise with an attractive safe haven from which to plan and launch operations.     

A Comparative Test of Clinical Judgment Versus Actuarial Prediction of Future Violence

This study tested how graduate level psychology graduate students (n = 20) using the Adapted Violence Risk Appraisal Guide (Adapted VRAG) would do relative to practicing psychologists/psychiatrists (n = 16) using clinical judgment when predicting violence in 10 narratives from the MacArthur Violence Risk Assessment study (Monahan et al., The MacArthur violence risk assessment study. . Retrieved 10 Oct 2005). Results indicated that the practicing psychologists/psychiatrists made significantly more correct predictions than the master’s level students. The professional group demonstrated sensitivity levels of 77.7% and specificity of 96.3%. For the use of the adapted VRAG method by the graduate student group, specificity levels were modest at 54.0%. Sensitivity levels, however, were lower than earlier demonstrated levels at 58.0%. These findings are at variance with earlier reports comparing clinical and actuarial methods. The results may reflect the short amount of time the master’s level students were trained using the Adapted VRAG as well as the small number of participants in this study. Additional research comparing other professions is recommended, as well as examining if experience in the forensics field would affect one’s ability to predict violence.     

Bridging the Gap Between the Worlds of Ideas and Action

The World War II experience of public service created a generation of scholars who devoted themselves to policy-relevant research during the early Cold War. The Vietnam War led to a split between the two groups, and scholars and policymakers today inhabit two different worlds. Fortunately, it appears as though the relationship between the world of ideas and the world of action is entering a new phase. Both the academy and the nation would be better off if scholars were more involved in topics of interest to policymakers. However, building a closer relationship between these two worlds faces challenges.     

Toward a Balanced Approach: Defining Police Roles in Responding to Domestic Violence

Responding to domestic violence poses unique challenges to law enforcement officers. Prior research has focused on issues such as officer safety and arrest policies but overlooked a critical component—the officers’ perception of their role in responding to domestic violence incidents. This study explores how police officers define their roles through the use of focus group interviews with detectives assigned to a domestic violence unit. Findings include the identification of three role perspectives. Recommendations for a more balanced approach of these role perspectives in responding to domestic violence crimes through the use of more effective training, supervision, and evaluation are proposed.