When Second‐Best is Still a No‐Brainer: Why Labour Should Shoot for a Majority Coalition in May 2015

The chances of Labour winning the 2015 general election with a comfortable overall majority are vanishingly small. It could, however, emerge as the largest party or finish just a handful of seats behind the Conservatives. Either scenario would give it at least a chance—and a bigger chance than many realise, we argue—of forming a government. In that event, Labour may be faced with a choice between getting together with another party (or parties) to form a majority coalition or else forming a minority government (either on its own or with one or more partners), which could assemble different majorities for different pieces of legislation or try to negotiate a ‘confidence and supply’ agreement. Given the precedents from the UK and overseas, we argue that, faced with this dilemma, Labour should do all it can to form a majority coalition. We also argue that Labour can learn some useful lessons from the Cameron–Clegg coalition.     

The Rise of the Far Right in Debtor and Creditor European Countries: The Case of European Parliament Elections

While the 2014 European Parliament elections were marked by the rise of parties on the far right‐wing, the different patterns of support that we observe across Europe and across time are not directly related to the economic crisis. Indeed, economic hardship seems neither sufficient nor necessary for the rise of such parties to occur. Using the cross‐national results for the 2004, 2009 and 2014 EP elections in order to capture time and country variations, we posit that the economy affects the rise of far right‐wing parties in more complex ways. Specifically, we compare the experience of high‐debt countries (the ‘debtors’) and the others (the ‘creditors’) and explore the relationship between far right‐wing party success on the one hand, and unemployment, inequality, immigration, globalisation and the welfare state on the other. Our discussion suggests there might be a trade‐off between budgetary stability and far right‐wing party support, but the choice between Charybdis and Scylla may be avoided if policy‐makers carefully choose which policies should bear the brunt of the fiscal adjustment.     

The UK and Reform of the EU: Need for Eternal Vigilance

As the government of the United Kingdom prepares itself for negotiations with the European Union for a significant rebalancing of the relationship between the EU and its member states, the letter addressed by the prime minister of the UK to the president of the European Council has been seen as a document of some importance. The author argues that this letter, and a speech from the prime minister which followed it, deserve close study given their far-reaching implications for the future of UK–EU ties. The article also underlines the importance of eternal vigilance on the part everyone involved in the negotiating process.     

Does political inclusion of rebel parties promote peace after civil conflict?

ABSTRACT

Does the inclusion of rebel parties into the post-conflict political process help contribute to peace after the end of conflict? In this article we examine whether the transformation of rebel groups into political parties actually leads to the development of a durable peace after a civil war. Examining the likelihood of recurrence of civil wars in a country and recurrence of conflict in government–rebel group dyads after a settlement, we find that the inclusion and participation of former rebel parties in national government has an important impact on the likelihood of a durable post-settlement peace. Most importantly, not excluding major rebel parties from access to governing institutions is the most important factor in promoting post-conflict peace.     

Conservative ministers in the Coalition government of 2010–15: evidence of bias in the ministerial selections of David Cameron?

The article uses a data set of the 2010–15 Parliamentary Conservative Party (PCP) to test a series of hypotheses in order to determine whether those selected for ministerial office during the coalition era were representative of the PCP as a whole. The findings show no significant associations or bias by Cameron in terms of age, schooling, regional base, morality, voting for Cameron in the Conservative Party leadership election and, most significantly, gender. Significant associations or bias were evident in terms of Cameron’s patronage with regard to university education and electoral marginality. The findings demonstrate that any critique of current Conservative ministers based on their supposed elitism stems from the institutional and structural biases within the Conservative Party at candidate selection level, and cannot be attributed to bias on behalf of Cameron.     

Forty-five revolutions per minute: a qualitative study of Hybrid Order use in forensic psychiatric practice

Psychiatrists who recommend a Hybrid Order (Section 45A) as a disposal option at the point of sentencing accept that the convicted individual, as well as being mentally disordered and in need of treatment, is also culpable and deserving of criminal punishment. Ethical and clinical concerns have typically limited its clinical use. However, in 2015 the Court of Appeal specified in R v Vowles and others that the Hybrid Order disposal should be considered first in terms of potential mental health disposals. This judgement sets a high threshold for the use of the hospital order which has been the bedrock of inpatient forensic psychiatric practice since 1983. This study sought to explore the attitudes of consultant forensic psychiatrists towards the use of the Hybrid Order in the wake of the Vowles judgement. We interviewed 12 consultant forensic psychiatrists with longstanding experience of psychiatric sentencing recommendations. We found that the majority of consultants considered the Hybrid Order to be a valuable disposal option when used under specific circumstances. However, significant concerns were raised about its use in those with an enduring psychotic illness. Community aftercare arrangements for Hybrid Order disposals were viewed as inferior to community aftercare arrangements for Section 37/41 patients.     

Revisiting the Relationship Between the Economy and Crime: The Role of the Shadow Economy

Despite decades of research exploring the relationship between the economy and crime, there is a lack of clarity in this literature. Questions remain, particularly with respect to how the economy is measured and whether the relationship between the economy and crime is the same across contexts. The literature to date has overlooked what is called the “shadow” economy, which represents unreported economic activity. We examine the relationship between traditional measures of the legitimate economy (e.g. unemployment) and crime as well as whether the shadow economy moderates this relationship using a panel of U.S. states from 1997 to 2008. Our results show that the shadow economy reduces the strength of the relationship between the legitimate economy and crime, and the effect of the economy on crime is conditional on the size of the shadow economy.     

A prospective study of pathways to hospital readmission in Canadian forensic psychiatric patients

Individuals admitted to secure care often experience lengthy hospitalizations and are likely to be admitted on more than one occasion. In the context of growing demand and costs associated with secure care, the current study investigates the frequency and reasons for readmission among 87 forensic patients recently discharged into the community. We identify risk factors that are associated with the likelihood of readmission and describe areas of overlap and discordance with the existing literature in civil and forensic samples. Using a prospective design that included patient follow-up interviews and records review, we found that 28% of patients were readmitted on one or more occasions over a 12-month period. Psychiatric decompensation, substance use, and treatment non-adherence were the central reasons prompting readmission. Patients with one or more readmissions were found to have spent significantly more time in the forensic mental health system as compared to patients not readmitted. They were more likely to have a substance use disorder and were estimated to be at higher risk for violence. Results replicate the finding of low rates of serious violence and reoffending among discharged forensic patients, and substantiate the centrality of substance use as a growing and clinically important treatment issue.     

Complaint reduction in Australian federal policing in the Australian Capital Territory

Across fifteen years to 2015–2016 the rate of public complaints against police in the Australian Capital Territory fell by an extraordinary 79%. This was a much larger and longer-term reduction in complaints than occurred anywhere else in Australia, and it is very unusual in the international policing literature. The paper attempts to examine the nature of this change in greater detail, and possible factors that may have influenced the change. Unlike some other studies, however, there was limited evidence of specific point-in-time innovations that may have affected the trend. Nonetheless, it is likely that a range of reforms in policing influenced the change, with possible lessons for other departments struggling with significant complaint problems. The main reforms included improved custody procedures, greater attention to ethics in recruitment and training, a complaints system focused on managing officer behaviour, enlarged external oversight, and more attention to de-escalation skills in use-of-force training.