Implementation of the Thompson mechanism

This paper reconsiders the largely overlooked Thompson insurance mechanism for public choice. The mechanism's apparent defects can be remedied by a multi-part mechanism that generates necessary information and corrects potential errors. The added parts are (a) a sample of the population of eligible voters, who prepare a program for all voters' approval, and (b) the Vickrey-Clarke-Groves pivot mechanism. One can use classical statistical methods to draw valid inferences from a population sample about the entire electorate, preserving incentive compatibility and permitting efficient outcomes.     

Some further evidence on imprisonment vs. the death penalty as a deterrent to murder

Law and Human Behavior - The research reported here extends an earlier investigation (Bailey, 1977) on the deterrent effect of imprisonment versus the death penalty for murder. As a result of some...     

Comparable Preference Estimates across Time and Institutions for the Court, Congress, and Presidency

Empirically oriented scholars often struggle with how to measure preferences across time and institutional contexts. This article characterizes these difficulties and provides a measurement approach that incorporates information that bridges time and institutions in a Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo approach to ideal point measurement. The resulting preference estimates for presidents, senators, representatives, and Supreme Court justices are comparable across time and institutions. These estimates are useful in a variety of important research projects, including research on statutory interpretation, executive influence on the Supreme Court, and Senate influence on court appointments.     

Bioinformatics and human identification in mass fatality incidents: the world trade center disaster

Victim identification initiatives undertaken in the wake of Mass Fatality Incidents (MFIs) where high-body fragmentation has been sustained are often dependent on DNA typing technologies to complete their mandate. The success of these endeavors is linked to the choice of DNA typing methods and the bioinformatic tools required to make the necessary associations. Several bioinformatic tools were developed to assist with the identification of the victims of the World Trade Center attacks, one of the most complex incidents to date. This report describes one of these tools, the Mass Disaster Kinship Analysis Program (MDKAP), a pair-wise comparison software designed to handle large numbers of complete or partial Short Tandem Repeats (STR) genotypes, and infer identity of, or biological relationships between tested samples. The software performs all functions required to take full advantage of the information content of processed genotypic data sets from large-scale MFIs, including the collapse of victims data sets, remains re-association, virtual genotype generation through gap-filling, parentage trio searching, and a consistency check of reported/inferred biological relationships within families. Although very few WTC victims were genetically related, the software can detect parentage trios from within a victim's genotype data set through a nontriangulated approach that screens all possible parentage trios. All software-inferred relationships from WTC data were confirmed by independent statistical analysis. With a 13 STR loci complement, a fortuitous parentage trio (FPT) involving nonrelated individuals was detected. Additional STR loci would be required to reduce the risk of an FPT going undetected in large-scale MFIs involving related individuals among the victims. Kinship analysis has proven successful in this incident but its continued success in larger scale MFIs is contingent on the use of a sufficient number of STR loci to reduce the risk of undetected FPTs, the use of mtDNA and Y-STRs to confirm parentage and of bioinformatics that can support large-scale comparative genotyping schemes capable of detecting parentage trios from within a group of related victims.     

Inaccurate Conception: ACB v Thomson Medical

This note considers the decision of the Singapore Court of Appeal in ACB v Thomson Medical in which the plaintiff sought damages for the upkeep costs of a child conceived using sperm from someone other than her husband as a result of negligence by a fertility clinic. The Court held that upkeep costs could not be recovered as a matter of public policy, but recognised a new head of loss, namely damages for loss of genetic affinity. In a controversial ruling, the Court quantified these damages at thirty per cent of the upkeep costs of the child. While holding that punitive damages could be recovered outside the categories recognised in Rookes v Barnard, the Court rejected such an award on the facts of the case.     

Abortion in Northern Ireland: Has the Rubicon Been Crossed?

On 7 June 2018, the Supreme Court delivered their long anticipated ruling on whether the abortion laws in Northern Ireland are compatible with the European Convention on Human Rights. Although the case was dismissed on procedural grounds, a majority of the court held that, obiter, the current Northern Irish law was incompatible with the right to respect for private and family life, protected by Article 8 ECHR, “insofar as it prohibits abortion in cases of rape, incest and fatal foetal abnormality”. This Supreme Court decision, seen alongside the May 2018 Irish referendum liberalising abortion, and the 5 June 2018 Parliamentary debate seeking to liberalise abortion laws in Northern Ireland and the rest of the UK, places renewed focus upon the abortion laws of Northern Ireland and Great Britain, which suggests that the ‘halfway house’ of the Abortion Act 1967 Act finally be close to being reformed to hand the decision of abortion to women themselves.     

Criminals and the Price System: Evidence from Czech Metal Thieves

Objectives

This paper tests the economic theory of criminal behavior. Specifically, it looks at “the carrot” side of the theory, studying how thieves react to changes in monetary gains from crime.

Methods

Using a unique crime-level dataset on metal theft in the Czech Republic, we study thieves’ behavior in a simple regression framework. We argue that variation in metal prices represents a quasi-experimental variation in gains from crime. It is because (1) people steal copper and other nonferrous metals only to sell them to scrapyard and (2) prices at scrapyards are set by the world market. This facilitates causal interpretation of our regression estimates.

Results

We find that a 1% increase (decrease) in the re-sale price causes metal thefts to increase (decrease) by 1–1.5%. We show that the relationship between prices and thefts is very robust. Moreover, we find that thieves’ responses to price shocks are rapid and consistent.

Conclusion

Our results are in line with the economic model of crime, wherein criminal behavior is modeled as a rational agent’s decision driven by the costs and benefits of undertaking criminal activities. Our estimates are also consistent with recent results from the United Kingdom, suggesting these patterns are more general.

     

Are DNA data a valid source to study the spatial behavior of unknown offenders?

Studying the spatial behaviour of unknown offenders (i.e. undetected offenders) is difficult, because police recorded crime data do not contain information about these offenders. Recently, forensic DNA data has been used to study unknown offenders. However, DNA data are only a subset of the crimes committed by unknown offenders stored in police recorded crime data. To establish the suitability of DNA data for studying the spatial offending behaviour of unknown offenders, we examine the concentration and spatial similarity of detected but unsolved crimes in police recorded crime data (N?=?181,483) and DNA data (N?=?1913) over 27 Belgian judicial districts for four crime types. We established spatial similarity for certain crime types (in some districts). This offers opportunities for DNA data to be used to study unknown offenders' spatial offending behaviour. Implications for theory and research are discussed.     

Assessing the effectiveness and efficiency of a police service: the analytics of operational reviews

Concerns over rising costs have forced police services to balance increasing fiscal and operational pressures. Discussions of the resources and requirements of police, however, are generally only informed by political expediency and traditional practice. Operational reviews (ORs) can be used to document the demands on police, their capacity to respond, and ways in which they can become more efficient and effective. Drawing on an OR of a major urban Canadian police service, this article provides a broad outline of the components of an OR and the analytics that can be used to answer these key questions.     

Forensic Evidence in Homicide Investigations and Prosecutions

Even though forensic evidence is collected at virtually every homicide scene, only a few studies have examined its role in investigation and prosecution. This article adds to the literature by providing the results of a study of 294 homicide cases (315 victims) occurring in Cleveland, Ohio, between 2008 and 2011. Through a logistic regression on open versus closed cases, the collection of knives, administration of gunshot residue (GSR) kits, and clothing at the scene were positively and significantly related to case closures, while collection of ballistics evidence and DNA evidence were statistically significant in the opposite direction. With regard to analysis, the clearance rate for cases with probative results (i.e., matches or exclusions) was 63.1% compared to a closure rate of 56.3% for cases without probative results. However, only 23 cases had probative results prior to arrest compared to 128 cases with probative results after arrest.