Monetary transmission and the financial sector in the Czech Republic

In this paper, we (1) examine the interactions of financial variables and the macroeconomy within the block-restriction vector autoregression model and (2) evaluate to what extent the financial variables improve the forecasts of GDP growth and inflation. For this reason, various financial variables are examined, including those unexplored in previous literature, such as the share of liquid assets in the banking industry and the loan loss provision rate. Our results suggest that financial variables have a systematic and statistically significant effect on macroeconomic fluctuations. In terms of forecast evaluation, financial variables in general seem to improve the forecast of macroeconomic variables, but the predictive performance of individual financial variables varies over time, even though it strengthens during the 2008?C2009 crisis. The results give some support for the risk-taking channel of monetary policy, as the level of the monetary policy rate is positively associated with the loan loss provision rate of commercial banks. Finally, a more stable financial system is found to contribute to faster economic growth.     

网络犯罪分析:用户及系统的多视图分析方法

近年来网络犯罪数量呈快速上升的势头,但是却缺乏一种有效的取证方法来处理这些案件.调查人员通常依靠调查大量繁琐的源代码来了解犯罪模型及提取证据,但这种方式需要很多的人力与时间,并可能导致人为错误.为了克服调查人员可能出现的这些潜在错误,我们在本文中提出了一种半自动的方法来解决这些问题.该方法集成了用户视图(基于取证调查人员的高级别研究)和系统视图(基于对源代码的自动分析),来帮助调查人员精确调查的范围.本文应用此方法分析了一个真实案件,证明了方法的可行性,同时帮助调查人员高效地确定了调查范围和犯罪模型.可见这种半自动方法可以对大量有多个来源的电子证据进行有效分析,提高了网络犯罪案件取证的效率和可靠性.     

Cannabis findings in drivers suspected of driving under the influence of drugs in Finland from 2006 to 2008

The authors examined driving under the influence of drugs (DUID) cases which were found to be positive in whole blood for cannabis in Finland from 2006 to 2008. Factors studied were the number of cases positive for any combination of Δ(9)-tetrahydrocannabinol (THC) and the metabolites 11-hydroxy-Δ(9)-tetrahydrocannabinol (THC-OH) and 11-nor-9-carboxy-Δ(9)-tetrahydrocannabinol (THC-COOH). Concurrent use of amphetamines, benzodiazepines and/or alcohol was also recorded, as well as the drivers' age and gender. Altogether 2957 cannabis positive cases were retrieved from the database of the Alcohol and Drug Analytics Unit, National Institute for Health and Welfare. Drug findings were examined in relation to the zero-tolerance policy operated towards DUID in Finland. The number of cannabis positive cases in each year was approximately 1000 and the main demographic of cases was males aged 20-30 years. In the majority of cases (51.6%) the inactive metabolite THC-COOH was the only indication of cannabis use, however, associated use of amphetamines (58.8% of all cases) and/or benzodiazepines (63.9%) in cannabis positive drivers was very common. Detections for amphetamines and/or benzodiazepines were especially common in drivers with THC-COOH only (92.8% of these cases). Combined use of alcohol (25.7%) was also prevalent. Suspect DUID cases generally arise from suspicion on behalf of the police and the zero-tolerance policy offers an expedient means to deal with the challenges presented in DUID, particularly in view of the high incidence of multiple drug use - the legislation is not unduly punitive when enforced in this manner.     

The Salience of Social Contextual Factors in Appraisals of Police Interactions with Citizens: A Randomized Factorial Experiment

Objectives

Prior research indicates that public assessments of the manner in which the police exercise their authority are a key antecedent of judgments about the legitimacy of the police. In this study, the importance of context in influencing people’s assessment of police wrongdoing is examined.

Methods

A randomized factorial experiment was used to test how respondents perceive and evaluate police–citizens interactions along a range of types of situations and encounters. 1,361 subjects were surveyed on factors hypothesized to be salient influences on how citizens perceive and evaluate citizen interactions with police. Subjects viewed videos of actual police–citizen encounters and were asked for their evaluations of these observed encounters. Contextual primes were used to focus subjects on particular aspects of the context within which the encounter occurs.

Results

Structural equation models revealed that social contextual framing factors, such as the climate of police–community relations and the legality of the stop that led to the encounter, influence citizen appraisals of police behavior with effects comparable in size to and even larger than demographic variables such as education, race, and income.

Conclusions

These results suggest that the understandings and perceptions that people bring to a situation are important determinants of their assessment of police fairness. The police can positively influence citizen interpretations of police actions by striving to create a climate of positive police–community relationships in cities.     

Das Wasserentnahmeentgelt – Eine aktuelle rechtliche Bestandsaufnahme als Grundlage für die Diskussion über die Eignung des Wassercents als Finanzierungsinstrument zum Schutz von Grundwasservorkommen vor klimawandelbedingten Beeinträchtigungen

Natur und Recht - Angesichts der infolge des Klimawandels in den letzten Jahren in Deutschland vermehrt auftretenden Dürre- und Starkregenereignisse gewinnt das Wasserentnahmeentgelt in der...     

Jeremy Bentham,John Stuart Mill and the Secret Ballot: Insights from Nineteenth Century Democratic Theory

As part of a series of demands for political reform in Britain in the late eighteenth and early nineteenth century, Jeremy Bentham famously made a case for use of the secret ballot in elections. The advocacy of Bentham and his disciples on this issue fed into broader and at times robust public debate, particularly in the 1830s. On the opposite side of this debate was another leading political theorist, John Stuart Mill, who opposed secret ballot reform. This paper re‐examines the contours of this debate, making the case that it has important implications for contemporary political theory and debates about democracy. Firstly, and in terms of making sense of the debate itself, it points to the need to make a distinction between the “voter intimidation” argument and the Benthamite preference aggregation argument. Secondly, it suggests that distinguishing between vote‐buying and voter's dependence provides support for defenders of the secret ballot. Thirdly, it demonstrates the potential application of the idea of voting held in “trust” to the so‐called boundary problem in democratic theory. Finally, it points to the potentially wide but overlooked application of the Chartist idea of open voting (allowing the oppressed to identify their allies) in contemporary political theory.