Risky business: A risk-based methodology to measure organized crime

This paper describes the result of two studies on the development of a methodology to measure organized crime. The purpose of these studies, tasked by the Belgian Federal Police and Minister for Justice, was to provide a concrete and knowledge-based framework for the drafting of annual reports on organized crime that can give better answers to questions like ‘Is there much organized crime? Is the situation serious? Is it bad that there are more criminal groups now than in the past? Which criminal groups are the most dangerous?’. Two features provide a common thread that binds the methodology: the operating principle of the spectrum of enterprise and the application of a risk-based methodological process to the overall framework. The starting hypothesis is that organized crime is entrepreneurial in nature and that the dynamics of the market space provide the main environment and explanation for organized crime. The application of a risk-based methodology is founded on the recognition that the analysis of organized crime will always depend on imperfect information and resource limitations. Furthermore, the utility of a risk-based approach is seen in the provision of findings that are transparently arrived at with a clearly established framework for prioritization of decision-makers. The proposed methodology consists of three parts: environmental scanning, analysis of organizations and counter strategies and licit and illicit sector analysis.     

More Sinned Against than Sinning? The Case of the Arab Office, Washington, 1945-1948

In 1945, as a final settlement of the Palestine question drew near, the Arab states established the Arab Office, Washington, as part of their unprecedented effort to influence public and elite opinion on this matter in the United States. It was staffed by many of the leading young Arab intellectuals of the era. This article charts the Arab Office's attempt to reduce American support for the creation of a Jewish state in Palestine. In particular, it examines the accusations, made at the time, that the Arab Office, in pursuing its anti-Zionist agenda had co-operated with leading American anti-Semites and was under the control of the notorious former Mufti of Jerusalem, who had collaborated with Hitler during the Second World War.     

Identifying with the Nation: Spain's Left-Wing Citizens in an Age of Crisis

This study analyses the extent, sense, and strategies employed by sympathisers with Spanish state-wide left-wing parties to ‘reconstruct’ their affective ties with the Spanish nation after the ‘monopolisation of patriotism’ by Franco's regime. Such an undertaking is further complicated within the context of economic crisis and intensified peripheral nationalism found in Catalonia and the Basque Country. This article applies qualitative analysis to the discourse of left-wing participants from 11 focus groups held in March 2012 amidst the economic (and political) crisis. As expected, this context of crisis favoured the emergence of explicit discourse on the Spanish nation, providing an opportunity to gain a better understanding of its nature. Findings show that welfare nationalism and social patriotism define the kind of attachment developed by the interviewees towards Spain better than the concept of constitutional patriotism, or any kind of ethnic-cultural feeling of belonging.     

Norms,Behavioral Compliance,and Status Attribution in International Politics

Extant work on status attribution has largely focused on major powers or state capabilities as key explanatory factors driving these social processes and suggests that status considerations increase conflicts between states. We argue for a more comprehensive approach to status attribution that considers international norms as another major factor that is weighed in the attribution process. We contend that states (policymakers) evaluate one another not only on the basis of economic and military capabilities but also on the extent to which there is behavioral conformance with normative expectations and reward one another dependent upon whether these expectations are met. However, this attribution of status is dependent upon the level of contestation pertaining to that norm. Using a data set that assesses consistency with six different norms (resource transference, multilateralism, economic liberalism, democratic governance, respect for human rights, and peaceful dispute resolution), we find that status attribution is associated with norm-consistent behavior but only when these norms are uncontested at the global level.     

TrueAllele® Genotype Identification on DNA Mixtures Containing up to Five Unknown Contributors

Computer methods have been developed for mathematically interpreting mixed and low‐template DNA. The genotype modeling approach computationally separates out the contributors to a mixture, with uncertainty represented through probability. Comparison of inferred genotypes calculates a likelihood ratio (LR), which measures identification information. This study statistically examined the genotype modeling performance of Cybergenetics TrueAllele^® computer system. High‐ and low‐template DNA mixtures of known randomized composition containing 2, 3, 4, and 5 contributors were tested. Sensitivity, specificity, and reproducibility were established through LR quantification in each of these eight groups. Covariance analysis found LR behavior to be relatively invariant to DNA amount or contributor number. Analysis of variance found that consistent solutions were produced, once a sufficient number of contributors were considered. This study demonstrates the reliability of TrueAllele interpretation on complex DNA mixtures of representative casework composition. The results can help predict an information outcome for a DNA mixture analysis.