An Easy and Accurate Regression Model for Multiparty Electoral Data

Katz and King have previously proposed a statistical model formultiparty election data. They argue that ordinary least-squares(OLS) regression is inappropriate when the dependent variablemeasures the share of the vote going to each party, and theyrecommend a superior technique. Regrettably, the Katz–Kingmodel requires a high level of statistical expertise and iscomputationally demanding for more than three political parties.We offer a sophisticated yet convenient alternative that involvesseemingly unrelated regression (SUR). SUR is nearly as easyto use as OLS yet performs as well as the Katz–King modelin predicting the distribution of votes and the compositionof parliament. Moreover, it scales easily to an arbitrarilylarge number of parties. The model has been incorporated intoClarify, a statistical suite that is available free on the Internet.     

Family Dysfunction and Social Isolation as Moderators Between Stress and Child Physical Abuse Risk

Stress is a significant contributor to child physical maltreatment risk. Family and social supports are expected, but less studied, risk factors. Little empirical support clarifies the interactive influence on abuse risk for non-abusive parents. This study examined whether the stress-abuse risk relation was moderated by family dysfunction and social isolation. Subjective appraisals of these factors were administered to 95 community mothers. After creating composite scores using factor loadings from a CFA, multiple regression analyses were conducted to predict abuse risk. As expected, stress predicted abuse risk, with social isolation and, to a lesser extent, family dysfunction serving as moderators. Perceived stress and dysfunctional supports are important, interactive predictors of abuse risk. Future directions consider interactions within other ecological levels.     

Cross Pressure Scores: An Individual-Level Measure of Cumulative Partisan Pressures Arising from Social Group Memberships

Early studies of voting behavior hypothesized that the degree to which an individual was “cross-pressured” might affect how she participates in politics. However, attention to this topic waned before returning in recent years, mainly within the narrower confines of social networks analysis. In an effort to encourage broader consideration of the role of cross-pressures in political behavior, we present a new approach to estimating cross-pressures that (1) is individual-specific, (2) reflects the cumulative cross-pressures faced by an individual from her many intersecting social strata and group memberships, irrespective of the mechanism by which those pressures are experienced, and (3) can be estimated using widely-available data in party systems of any size, thus making it easier to study the effect of cross-pressures cross-nationally and over time. We demonstrate that these estimates are robust to many estimation choices, correspond well to existing measures of cross-pressures, and are correlated with patterns of political engagement and participation predicted by extant theories.