Space–Time Patterns of Risk: A Cross National Assessment of Residential Burglary Victimization

Using epidemiological techniques for testing disease contagion, it has recently been found that in the wake of a residential burglary, the risk to nearby homes is temporarily elevated. This paper demonstrates the ubiquity of this phenomenon by analyzing space–time patterns of burglary in 10 areas, located in five different countries. While the precise patterns vary, for all areas, houses within 200 m of a burgled home were at an elevated risk of burglary for a period of at least two weeks. For three of the five countries, differences in these patterns may partly be explained by simple differences in target density. The findings inform theories of crime concentration and offender targeting strategies, and have implications for crime forecasting and crime reduction more generally.

Network Analysis and the Law: Measuring the Legal Importance of Precedents at the U.S. Supreme Court

Timothy R. Johnson Department of Political Science, University of Minnesota, Twin Cities, 1414 Social Sciences Building, 267 19th Ave. South, Minneapolis, MN 55455 e-mail: trj{at}umn.edu James F. Spriggs, II Department of Political Science, Washington University in St. Louis, Campus Box 1063, One Brookings Drive, St Louis, MO 63130 e-mail: jspriggs{at}artsci.wustl.edu Sangick Jeon Department of Political Science, Stanford University, 616 Serra Street, Encina Hall West, Room 100, Stanford, CA 94305-6044 e-mail: sjeon{at}stanford.edu Paul J. Wahlbeck Department of Political Science, George Washington University, 1922 F Street, N.W. Suite 401, Washington, DC 20052 e-mail: wahlbeck{at}gwu.edu e-mail: jhfowler{at}ucsd.edu (corresponding author) We construct the complete network of 26,681 majority opinionswritten by the U.S. Supreme Court and the cases that cite themfrom 1791 to 2005. We describe a method for using the patternsin citations within and across cases to create importance scoresthat identify the most legally relevant precedents in the networkof Supreme Court law at any given point in time. Our measuresare superior to existing network-based alternatives and, forexample, offer information regarding case importance not evidentin simple citation counts. We also demonstrate the validityof our measures by showing that they are strongly correlatedwith the future citation behavior of state courts, the U.S.Courts of Appeals, and the U.S. Supreme Court. In so doing,we show that network analysis is a viable way of measuring howcentral a case is to law at the Court and suggest that it canbe used to measure other legal concepts. Authors' note: We appreciate the suggestions of Randy Calvert,Frank Cross, Pauline Kim, Andrew Martin, Richard Pacelle, JimRogers, Margo Schlanger, Amy Steigerwalt, and participants inthe Workshop on Empirical Research in the Law at WashingtonUniversity in St Louis School of Law. We presented former versionsof this article at the 2006 meeting of the Midwest PoliticalScience Association, Chicago, April 20–23; the 2006 meetingof the Southern Political Science Association, Atlanta, GA,January 5–7; and the 2006 Empirical Legal Studies Conference,Austin, TX, October 27–28.     

Survey Research in Public Administration: Assessing Mainstream Journals with a Total Survey Error Framework

Survey research is a common tool for assessing public opinions, perceptions, attitudes, and behaviors for analyses in many social science disciplines. Yet there is little knowledge regarding how specific elements of survey research methodology are applied in practice in public administration. This article examines five mainstream public administration journals over an eight‐year period regarding current methodological practice, organized around the total survey error framework. The findings show that survey research in the field of public administration features mainly small‐scale studies, heavy reliance on a single data collection mode, questionable sample selection procedures, and suspect sample frame quality. Survey data largely are analyzed without careful consideration of assumptions or potential sources of error. An informed evaluation of the quality of survey data is made more difficult by the fact that many journal articles do not detail data collection procedures. This study concludes with suggestions for improving the quality and reporting of survey research in the field.     

The Shale Gas Revolution: U.S. and EU Policy and Research Agendas

The “shale gas revolution” raises a host of questions for policy makers and researchers on both sides of the Atlantic. We provide a brief overview of the regulatory environment as it relates to hydraulic fracturing for natural gas in the United States and the European Union. We then pose a set of open questions, which we believe should shape policy and research agendas surrounding shale gas wherever the development of this resource is being pursued or considered.     

Cross-Classified Multilevel Models: An Application to the Criminal Case Processing of Indicted Terrorists

This study provides an application of cross-classified multilevel models to the study of early case processing outcomes for suspected terrorists in U.S. federal district courts. Because suspected terrorists are simultaneously nested within terrorist organizations and criminal court environments, they are characterized by overlapping data hierarchies that involve cross-nested ecological contexts. Cross-classified models provide a useful but underutilized approach for analyzing such data. Using the American Terrorism Study (ATS), this research examines case dismissals, trial adjudications and criminal convictions for a sample of 574 terrorist suspects. Findings indicate that diverse factors affect case processing outcomes, including legal factors such as the number of counts, number of co-defendants, and statute of indictment, extralegal factors such as the ethnicity of the offender, and incident characteristics such as the type of terrorism target. Case processing outcomes also vary significantly across both terrorist groups and criminal courts and are partially explained by select group and court characteristics including the type of terrorist organization and the terrorism trial rate of the court. Results are discussed vis-à-vis contemporary research on terrorism punishments and future directions are suggested for additional applications of cross-classified models in criminological research.     

Race and Women’s Imprisonment: Poverty, African American Presence, and Social Welfare

Female imprisonment rates have increased proportionately more than male imprisonment rates over recent decades. There are substantial race differences in women’s rates, as is the case for men. Yet, there has been little quantitative research on the correlates of women’s imprisonment using data over time, or on potential race differences in those correlates. The present research analyzes data on black and nonblack female imprisonment rates in the 50 states for the period 1981–2003. The analyses are guided substantively by existing research on race, social threat and criminal punishment, and theory and research on the penal-welfare hypothesis. The study uses bivariate-response multilevel modeling to simultaneously examine the factors associated with black and nonblack women’s imprisonment rates. The results show that black female imprisonment rates increase when the concentration of African Americans in metropolitan areas and poverty rates grow, whereas nonblack female imprisonment rates are unaffected by poverty rates and actually decrease when African American populations become more concentrated in metro areas. Both black and nonblack women’s imprisonment rates increase when welfare spending declines. The results are consistent with social threat perspectives and the penal-welfare hypotheses.     

The Capability of Raman Microspectroscopy to Differentiate Printing Inks

This study applies Raman microspectroscopy to differentiate the chemical components in printing inks of different brands, colors, and type using the 532 nm and 785 nm excitation wavelengths. Spectra were collected from 319 inks (78 inkjet, 76 toner, 79 offset, and 86 intaglio) representing various colors. Comparisons were performed to calculate discrimination capability percentages for each ink type. Overall, Raman microspectroscopy differentiates according to the following hierarchy: intaglio (96%), inkjet (92%), offset (90%), and toner (61%). The ability of Raman microspectroscopy to differentiate between same‐colored inks from different brands was dependent on the color and ink analyzed. Based on ink color, the discrimination capability ranged from 75 to 94% (inkjet), 0 to 86% (toner), and 0 to 77% (offset). Copper phthalocyanine was detected in cyan inks and various intaglio inks, while carbon black was identified in black inkjet, offset, and intaglio inks.     

The Impact of Field Court Attendance Notices on Property Crime in New South Wales,Australia

Objectives

This paper investigates the impact of Field Court Attendance Notices (FCANs) on rates of property crime in New South Wales (NSW), Australia. FCANs are used for relatively minor offenses, are issued ‘on the spot’, and provide an alternative to the time consuming process of arresting an alleged offender and taking them to the police station for processing. Despite their use in NSW for over 20 years, this study is the first to evaluate their impact on crime.

Methods

We use data provided by the NSW Bureau of Crime Statistics and Research, and the Australian Bureau of Statistics. We specify a general dynamic panel data model estimated via the Arellano and Bond (Rev Econ Stud 58:277–297, 1991) estimator, specifically the first-differenced twostep generalised method of moments (GMM) estimator.

Results

For property crime as a whole, in both the short- and long-run, we find no significant relationship between the use of FCANS and levels of offending. However, when offending rates are disaggregated into 11 sub-categories, we find that in the short-run an increase in the use of FCANs leads to statistically significant decreases in the rate of crime for five of the sub-categories offenses considered (break and enter dwelling; motor vehicle theft; steal from motor vehicle; steal from retail store and; steal from dwelling). The long-run results are largely consistent with the short-run results in terms of their signs and statistical significance, suggesting that the effects persist.

Conclusions

The empirical analysis presented in this paper suggests that the use of FCANs is an effective and potentially efficient policing strategy for a subset of property offenses, in that offenders can be processed at lower cost and long-run rates of certain crimes reduced.

     

A Molecular Method to Detect Wound Cells in Bloodstains Resultant of Sharp Force Injuries for Crime Scene Reconstruction

Previous research by the authors on an animal model showed that bloodstains can contain additional information about their somatic origin in the form of wound cells. Bloodstains produced by a gunshot wound to the head were distinguished from bloodstains produced by a gunshot wound to the chest by testing the stains for a brain microRNA marker. In this study, the effectiveness of the technique was examined on blood drops shed externally from a stab wound to the liver of rat carcasses. Specifically, investigations were conducted on the liver microRNA marker, rno‐mir‐122‐3p, with the QIAGEN miScript System, and PCR analysis. Between the two stabbing methods used, 67% of the scalpel blades and 57% of the blood drops tested positive for rno‐mir‐122‐3p; however, other samples tested negative giving inconclusive results as to the wound‐of‐origin. The amount of the liver cells in the bloodstains appeared to be related to the extent of trauma.