Estimating the potential impact of nonvoters on outcomes of parliamentary elections in proportional systems with an application to German national elections from 1949 to 2009

“If turnout was 100%, would it affect the election result?” is a frequently asked research question. So far, the question has been primarily answered regarding the changes in the distribution of votes. This article extends the analysis to changes in the distribution of seats and government formation. It therefore proposes a method that factors in apportionment methods, election threshold, sizes of parliaments, leverage of nonvoters, closeness of election results, and individual characteristics of nonvoters. The method is then applied to German national elections from 1949 to 2009. The application shows that Germany's Social Democratic Party (SPD) would have gained from the counterfactual participation of nonvoters, although usually not enough to result in a government change. However, the elections of 1994 and 2005 show evidence that such a change could have happened.     

Lessons of the European crisis for regional monetary and financial integration in East Asia

The debt crisis in several member states of the euro area has raised doubts on the viability of the European Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) and the future of the euro. While the launch of the euro in 1999 stirred a lot of interests in regional monetary integration and even monetary unification in various parts of the world, including East Asia, the current crisis has had the opposite effect, even raising expectations of a break-up of the euro area. Indeed, the crisis has highlighted the problems and tensions that will inevitably arise within a monetary union when imbalances build up and become unsustainable. This article discusses the causes of the current European crisis and the challenges that EMU countries face in solving it. Based on this analysis, it derives five lessons for regional financial and monetary cooperation and integration in East Asia.     

Acute poisoning involving the pyrrolidinophenone-type designer drug 4'-methyl-alpha-pyrrolidinohexanophenone (MPHP)

A 36-year-old woman consulted the medical emergency unit of a private health center for abdominal pain and gastroenteritis of 5 days duration. Acute right pyelonephritis was diagnosed. Five hours after admission she became unconscious in a state of clinical shock. She was transferred to an intensive care unit but resuscitation attempts were unsuccessful and she died 3 h later. Three days after death, she was buried in the family vault. Five days after the burial, her husband lodged a complaint with the public prosecutor because he had not received a clear explanation from the physicians concerning the cause of his wife's death. After analysis of the medical records of the deceased by two forensic pathologists, a medicolegal autopsy was ordered by the public prosecutor. The corpse was exhumed and autopsy performed 9 days after death. Massive hemoperitoneum was diagnosed with a macroscopically ruptured subcapsular hematoma. Pathological study confirmed acute right pyelonephritis and demonstrated the precise cause of the hemorrhage: rupture of the hepatic artery at the hilar part, following infectious arteritis which was probably secondary to the acute pyelonephritis. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first published report of such a case.     

Criminal Behavior in Opioid‐Dependent Patients Before and During Maintenance Therapy: 6‐year Follow‐Up of a Nationally Representative Cohort Sample

Lifetime prevalence of opioid dependence is about 0.4% in western countries. Opioid‐dependent patients have high morbidity and mortality and a high risk of criminal behavior. Few studies have addressed the long‐term impact of opioid maintenance therapy on convictions and criminal behavior. The PREMOS study is a prospective, longitudinal, naturalistic clinical study of a nationally representative sample of 2694 opioid‐dependent patients to investigate convictions and criminal behavior at baseline and after 6 years of maintenance treatment. At follow‐up, 2284 patients still were eligible (84.7%). A comprehensive assessment including a patient and doctor questionnaire, and the EuropASI was completed at baseline and follow‐up. Data on criminality at follow‐up had been received for 1147 (70.6%) patients. A large number (84.5%) of them had been charged or convicted at any time before baseline assessment, most frequently with drug‐related offenses (66.8%), acquisitive crime (49.1%), or acts of violence (22.0%). Reported charges and convictions had declined to 17.9% for the last 12 months before follow‐up, which was also reflected by a significant decrease in the EuropASI subscore “legal problems” from 1.52 at baseline to 0.98 after 6 years. These data indicate a significant and clinically relevant reduction in criminal behavior in opioid‐dependent patients in long‐term maintenance treatment. Maintenance therapy is effective in the reduction in both narcotics‐related and acquisition crime.     

Mass, NMR and IR spectroscopic characterization of pentedrone and pentylone and identification of their isocathinone by-products

This study presents and discusses the mass spectrometric, nuclear magnetic resonance spectroscopic and infrared spectroscopic data of the designer drugs pentedrone (2-methylamino-1-phenylpentan-1-one) and its methylenedioxy analog pentylone (2-methylamino-1-(3,4-methylenedioxyphenyl)pentan-1-one). The structure elucidation of the aliphatic parts was carried out by product ion spectroscopy of the immonium ion with m/z=86 formed after electron ionization, and by one- and two-dimensional (1)H- and (13)C-NMR spectroscopy on the hydrochloride salts to verify the structure of the alkyl side chain and to determine the methylenedioxy position in the aromatic ring of pentylone. Furthermore, two typical cathinone synthesis by-products were detected besides the main compounds. Their mass spectra are discussed and for one of them (1-methylamino-1-phenylpentan-2-one (isopentedrone)) a NMR assignment was possible in the existing mixture.     

Development of rust stains on the skin due to contact with a gun

In order to study the conditions for the formation of so-called rustmarks on the skin after contact with weapon steel tests to provoke rustmarks were performed on corpses and living bodies. These tests were only successful under the condition of a firm contact with the weapon steel and a certain minimum contact time between the weapon and the skin. The experiments showed that the critical parameters for the appearance of rustmarks are, first, the humidity of the skin and the environment, respectively, as well as the contact time, and second, the state of the weapon surface (greased or ungreased). Both the ambient temperature and the pH value of the skin (alkaline or acid) are irrelevant to the formation of rust. The longest time period until rustmarks appeared was observed on dry skin in contact with a greased weapon, namely 22 hours on a corpse and 170 min on a living subject. When using a greased gun humidity accelerated the formation of rust. An ungreased surface of the weapon also resulted in faster rust formation. The minimum time necessary for the formation of rust determined under the most favourable circumstances was 135 min for a corpse and 27 min for a living person. During the early postmortal interval the rustmark may therefore be another piece in the jigsaw towards determining the time of death on suicides committed with firearms.