LOW SELF-CONTROL,SOCIAL BONDS,AND CRIME: SOCIAL CAUSATION,SOCIAL SELECTION,OR BOTH?*

This article examines the social-selection and social-causation processes that generate criminal behavior. We describe these processes with three theoretical models: a social-causation model that links crime to contemporaneous social relationships; a social-selection model that links crime to personal characteristics formed in childhood; and a mixed selection-causation model that links crime to social relationships and childhood characteristics. We tested these models with a longitudinal study in Dunedin, New Zealand, of individuals followed from birth through age 21. We analyzed measures of childhood and adolescent low self-control as well as adolescent and adult social bonds and criminal behavior. In support of social selection, we found that low self-control in childhood predicted disrupted social bonds and criminal offending later in life. In support of social causation, we found that social bonds and adolescent delinquency predicted later adult crime and, further, that the effect of self-control on crime was largely mediated by social bonds. In support of both selection and causation, we found that the social-causation effects remained significant even when controlling for preexisting levels of self-control, but that their effects diminished. Taken together, these findings support theoretical models that incorporate social-selection and social-causation processes.     

Policymaking in Multiparty Presidential Regimes: A Comparison between Brazil and Ecuador

This paper explores why two countries with similar electoral, partisan, and presidential institutions, have produced significantly different policy outcomes in Latin America. Brazil and Ecuador are conventionally known as having highly fragmented party systems, where legislators have great incentives to cultivate a personal vote. Presidents are perceived to be strong and to make large use of government resources in order to advance their agenda. Yet, policies in Brazil are more likely to respond to shocks and to be more stable over time than policies in Ecuador, where policies remain vulnerable to political changes and realignments. We argue that this variation is explained by the different nature of political coalitions formed in each country. We identify three factors that increase the executive's ability to craft governing coalitions in congress: the availability of valuable coalition currencies, the influence of long‐term political horizons, and the extent to which political transactions are credibly and effectively enforced.     

Terrorist attacks and Europeans’ attitudes towards immigrants: An experimental approach

Over the past several years an increasing number of terrorist attacks committed in the name of Islam and targeting civilians have taken place in many Western democracies, calling for more research on the impact of these exogenous events on citizens’ attitudes towards immigrants. Using a quasi-experimental design, this study examines the short-term effect of the Paris attacks of the night of 13 November 2015 on the attitudes towards European Union (EU) and non-EU immigrants across 28 EU countries. Employing Eurobarometer 84.3 survey data collected in 28 European countries between 7 and 17 November 2015, the design allows the testing of individual attitudes before and after the Paris attacks and the spillover effects of this event in all European countries. It is found that the Paris attacks had a significant negative effect on attitudes towards immigrants, especially among educated and left-wing individuals. Moreover, the negative effect was stronger in countries where the national political-ideological climate was more positive towards immigrants. These findings are explained by theorising that first emotional reactions to the attack are the results of coping mechanisms whereby individuals are confronted with disconfirmation/confirmation of their previous beliefs: individuals who experience stronger stereotype disconfirmation are the most negatively affected by the terrorist attack. Overall, the study holds important implications for understanding the short-term impact of terrorist attacks on public attitudes towards immigrants.     

Stay or Go? Ecuadorian Immigrants in Spain in Times of Crisis

This article studies how the economic crisis affects Ecuadorian immigrants' decisions on staying in Spain or returning to their home country. Before the crisis, Ecuadorians were one of the most significant migrant groups in Spain in terms of volume and degree of settlement. The crisis has destabilised their situation and modified their migratory projects in different ways. This article presents the three main choices facing Ecuadorian immigrants during the crisis: permanence, wait and see, and return/re‐migration. The analysis focuses on how the decision‐making process is carried out and on the different factors that lead Ecuadorians to choose each option.     

珠三角地区率先实现基本公共服务均等化的现实考量

《珠江三角洲地区改革发展规划纲要》提出珠三角地区2012年率先实现基本公共服务均等化目标。珠三角地区率先实现基本公共服务均等化目标应从立法、制度化建设、制定民生发展规划及标准、完善纵向和横向转移支付制度、建立以基本公共服务均等化为导向的官员考核指标体系和政府问责制等方面进行系统研究和实践。     

Is Politics Behind Trade? The Impact of International Trends and Diplomatic Action on Brazil's Exports during Globalisation

Although it is well known that domestic and international factors converge to affect a nation's foreign policy orientation and trade, their actual weights vary. Brazil's situation during globalisation sheds light on this issue. Through statistical and qualitative analysis, this article shows how structural factors, rather than diplomatic action, influenced the direction of Brazil's exports as the country became more integrated into the world economy. It was only under Cardoso's presidency that trade had an impact on bilateral diplomacy. The findings contradict conventional wisdom, which emphasises the state's role in driving Brazilian integration into the global economy.