Lost in Aggregation: Improving Event Analysis with Report‐Level Data

Most measures of social conflict processes are derived from primary and secondary source reports. In many cases, reports are used to create event‐level data sets by aggregating information from multiple, and often conflicting, reports to single event observations. We argue that this pre‐aggregation is less innocuous than it seems, costing applied researchers opportunities for improved inference. First, researchers cannot evaluate the consequences of different methods of report aggregation. Second, aggregation discards report‐level information (i.e., variation across reports) that is useful in addressing measurement error inherent in event data. Therefore, we advocate that data should be supplied and analyzed at the report level. We demonstrate the consequences of using aggregated event data as a predictor or outcome variable, and how analysis can be improved using report‐level information directly. These gains are demonstrated with simulated‐data experiments and in the analysis of real‐world data, using the newly available Mass Mobilization in Autocracies Database (MMAD).     

The Thucydides Trap and the Korean Peninsula: So why Won’t the USA and China Get Caught?

Journal of Chinese Political Science - “It was the rise of Athens and the fear that it instilled in Sparta that made war inevitable” as Thucydides famously stated. But are we destined...     

Sexual Violence Against Women Through the Lens of Environmental Criminology: Toward the Accumulation of Evidence-based Knowledge and Crime Prevention

Sexual violence against women is a serious problem worldwide. In this study, we organize and critically review previous empirical studies on sexual offenses against women through the lens of environmental criminology. For this purpose, we use the questions asked by environmental criminologists/crime analysts in the study of crime events; that is the: who, what, where, when, and how this phenomenon typically occurs. Based on the current state of the criminological research literature, we then provide a discussion on the prevention of sexual offenses against women drawing on a situational crime prevention framework. By engaging in this exercise, we argue that environmental criminology can substantially contribute to understanding and informing prevention practices in the field of sexual offenses against women.     

More Rights,Less Power: Labor Standards and Labor Markets in East European Post-communist States

This paper examines changes in labor markets and labor rights for 13 post-communist states of East Central Europe and the Former Soviet Union. It focuses on the simultaneous pressures to increase the flexibility of labor markets and improve labor standards in the years since the collapse of communism. Comparative measures and patterns of both de jure and de facto standards and flexibility are presented, and the roles of key institutional promoters of change are analyzed. I find that a combination of democratic regime type and European Union accession has pulled East European states toward the strengthening of collective labor rights. The effect is strongest on the states that joined the EU in 2004, weaker for those joining in 2007, while the three post-Soviet, non-accession states remain significantly more labor-repressive. Labor market flexibilization has been a more uniform trend in the post-communist region. In the context of this project’s inter-regional comparisons, contemporary Eastern Europe has the strongest labor rights. At the same time, the decline of trade unions and limits of collective bargaining in most post-communist states undermine the effectiveness of transposed EU legislation and bargaining institutions in empowering labor. As shown by the exceptional case of Slovenia, strong unions are necessary to fully enforce rights.     

NEGLECTED INFANTS IN FAMILY COURT

This paper applies the science of early childhood development to the question of neglect in infancy to offer best practice guidance to family law and child protection professionals charged with acting in their best interest. The paper discusses the challenges of presenting cases of infant neglect, particularly emotional neglect, to the court. Current science on the implications of neglect for brain development, and long term mental health are discussed. Recommendations for assessment, intervention and questions that should be addressed in court deliberations are outlined.