Spatial Effects and Ecological Inference

This paper examines the role of spatial effects in ecologicalinference. Both formally and through simulation experiments,we consider the problems associated with ecological inferenceand cross-level inference methods in the presence of increasingdegrees of spatial autocorrelation. Past assessments of spatialautocorrelation in aggregate data analysis focused on unidimensional,one-directional processes that are not representative of thefull complexities caused by spatial autocorrelation. Our analysisis more complete and representative of true forms of spatialautocorrelation and pays particular attention to the specificationof spatial autocorrelation in models with random coefficientvariation. Our assessment focuses on the effects of this specificationon the bias and precision of parameter estimates.     

Bureaucratizing Democracy, Democratizing Bureaucracy

This article analyzes the relationship between how rationality is conceived and how democracy is practiced in the Bureau of Reclamation, a water development agency in the Department of Interior. The efforts of some inside the agency to institutionalize rational decision-making models, partly in response to new environmental law, expanded the number and range of interest groups that participated in its decisions fry incorporating their preferences into their models for evaluating plans. But the terms under which people could express their values and interests were strictly controlled in ways that some felt misrepresented their concerns. How we conceive of rationality has important implications for how and which people are included in bureaucratic decision making.     

Forensic Evidence in Homicide Investigations and Prosecutions

Even though forensic evidence is collected at virtually every homicide scene, only a few studies have examined its role in investigation and prosecution. This article adds to the literature by providing the results of a study of 294 homicide cases (315 victims) occurring in Cleveland, Ohio, between 2008 and 2011. Through a logistic regression on open versus closed cases, the collection of knives, administration of gunshot residue (GSR) kits, and clothing at the scene were positively and significantly related to case closures, while collection of ballistics evidence and DNA evidence were statistically significant in the opposite direction. With regard to analysis, the clearance rate for cases with probative results (i.e., matches or exclusions) was 63.1% compared to a closure rate of 56.3% for cases without probative results. However, only 23 cases had probative results prior to arrest compared to 128 cases with probative results after arrest.     

Minimum Criminal Penalties in the European Union: In Search of a Credible Justification

The EU has recently mooted the possibility of harmonising minimum penalties. ‘Minimum criminal penalties’ refers to the lowest sanction available for a judge in a concrete case. Calculating the actual penalty involves legal mechanisms that might mitigate that penalty. Comparative analysis reveals that a distinction needs to be made between minimum penalties included in national criminal codes (in abstracto penalty) and the lowest penalty that might be imposed (in concreto penalty). Although in abstracto minimum penalties are found in the criminal codes of most Member States, they are fiercely opposed in others. In concreto minimum penalties that constitute an absolute limit to the discretion of a judge are even more controversial. Against that background, this contribution reviews whether or not the EU should force the Member States to impose absolute, in concreto minimum criminal penalties. It examines the justifications presented in recent proposals in light of legal and criminological research.     

Haven't We Been This Way Before? Evaluation and the Impediments to Policy Learning

In this paper, we focus on a policy trial that was undertaken in a complex and controversial policy field (Indigenous community development), with the avowed objective of learning from experience in the field . We observe that despite significant implementation effort and quality evaluation, little systematic policy learning occurred. Four impediments are identified: (i) the policy environment was highly politicized and contested, (ii) the results challenged accepted ways of working, (iii) there were no systematic processes for policy learning to occur, and (iv) the learnings were distorted by inter‐agency competition and associated ‘labelling’. We suggest that, in controversial policy fields, the most useful first step in enhancing evaluation‐use is for bureaucracies to institute systematic processes for evaluation findings to be considered, with the aim of elaborating ‘what works’ into a consensual approach to change. Without change of this kind, evaluation‐use will remain a failed area of policy.     

Is Germany Going Bananas? Life Cycle and Cohort Effects on Party Performance in Germany from 1953 to 2049

In the public debate concerning the consequences of demographic change in Germany it is often argued that the rising share of older voters will help the CDU/CSU to consolidate its power. This argumentation only applies if the age effect is assumed to be dominant. However, diverse socialisation backgrounds, captured by the cohort effect, also have to be taken into account. Based on the Repräsentative Wahlstatistik (Representative Electoral Statistic, RES) and Population Forecasts, the consequences of demographic shifts for federal elections since 1953 are estimated, as well as for future elections. First, age, cohort and period effects on vote choice for previous elections are calculated by using cohort analysis. Second, these effects are applied to the future age distribution. The results show that the ‘greying’ electorate is expected to favour the CDU/CSU and the FDP, while especially the SPD is likely to suffer electoral losses due to demographic shifts.     

Crime,punishment, family violence,and the cloak of legal invisibility

Abstract

In this article, the authors trace how the Anglo-Australian system of criminal law constructs crime within the family differently from other forms of crime. The zone of legal impunity for intrafamilial crime was carved out by special defences and immunities, such as provocation and marital rape, as well as policing policies and practices that effectively decriminalised “domestic” forms of physical and sexual abuse. Legal impunity was never absolute, and there were notable exceptions where the familial and gendered aspects of the crime in fact aggravated the offence, such as the law's treatment of spousal murder by females as a form of “petty treason”, warranting the most severe punishment of burning at the stake. Reforms in the late twentieth century removed overt forms of gender discrimination from the criminal law, exposing a new legal visibility of crime within “the family”, though as the authors conclude, there are still remnants of differential treatment in fields of sentencing law and practice.