Party identification and party closeness in comparative perspective

The present analysis uses data from 1974 and 1981 U. S. cross sections, which incorporate a panel, to compare the standard NES measure of party identification (ID) with a measure of partisanship derived from a party closeness question widely employed in cross-national research. Important features of the two scales are examined by transforming the closeness measure into a scale of very close, fairly close, not very close, and no preference corresponding to the seven-point ID scale. The scales are highly correlated and are similar in their reliability. More than 75% of the independents in the ID scale choose a party in the closeness version, and over half of these select the fairly close category. Respondents do not volunteer that they are independents when that alternative is not stated in the question.     

Trajectories of non-intimate partner and intimate partner homicides, 1980-1999: The importance of rurality

Research had consistently shown that intimate partner homicide rates had been on a steady downward decline over the past two decades; however, a relatively recent movement in intimate partner homicide research had emphasized the need for further dissecting the aggregate trends by factors such as gender, race, victim-offender relationship, and same-sex partners. Taking this a step forward, this study utilized trajectory analysis for comparing and contrasting non-intimate partner homicide and intimate partner homicide rates over time in order to explore the importance of rurality when investigating intimate partner violence. Results of the analysis indicated that although intimate partner homicide rates had been declining over the 1980-1999 period for the majority of the 1,341 U.S. counties examined, there was evidence that rurality was significantly associated with an increased likelihood of assignment to a non-declining intimate partner homicide trajectory. In light of the findings, the authors also consider how these results can direct future research on intimate partner violence in rural areas.     

Integrating the American criminal justice and mental health service systems to focus on victimization

Although most research and policy in the mental health and criminal justice arenas have operated independently of one another, there is a growing consensus suggesting the need for an integration of these two disparate, yet complementary systems. Furthermore, in light of the adverse mental health consequences that often accompany victimization experiences, it is apparent that these two systems should develop and foster overlapping services for crime victims. The research reviewed herein provides an examination of issues such as these, identifies some of the barriers that stand in the way of a successful integration of the two systems, and attempts to provide some guidance and direction for future integrated mental health and criminal justice system approaches. An outline of research gaps and directions for future study are offered for the integration of criminal justice and mental health systems, as such collaborations are likely to alleviate some of the deleterious mental health outcomes evident among crime victims and at the same time reduce the occurrence of repeat victimization.     

From polls to votes to seats: Forecasting the 2010 British general election

This paper outlines and discusses techniques for three stages in forecasting parliamentary seats from British opinion polls: adjusting and aggregating published vote-intention figures from across different polls; forecasting how public opinion might change before election day; and predicting the seat totals from the forecasted election-day vote shares. Specifically, we consider a state-space model for opinion polls which correct for house effects and other sources of survey error, the estimation of the historical relationship between polls and the election-day share of the vote, and a probabilistic approach to predicting the winner in each constituency.