The forecasting potential of complex models

The nature and use of complex models for forecasting and policy simulation are analyzed on theoretical and empirical-performance grounds. The analysis suggests that while the accuracy of complex models in forecasting trends in such fields as economic and energy is, and will remain, undistinguished, complex models' special virtues of preserving counter-intuitive results and representing subsystem interdepedence could be used to better advantage than current practice permits. Suggestions for such improvements, through more diversified model structures, micro-process models in addition to the typical macro models, a mix of mechanically- and judgmentally-operated models, and the modeling of policy response, are reviewed.     

Industrial rationalization of a cottage industry: multi-institutional hospital systems

The environment facing hospitals, generally supportive until the 1970s, may now be characterized as complex, turbulent, and constrained. In response to such environmental conditions, hospitals have adopted new strategies and structures. The strategies, described as corporate rationalization, have led away from the traditional structure of freestanding, autonomous hospitals and toward the formation of multi-institutional systems. These systems are designed to provide sufficient strength to cope with the environment, to acquire scarce and valued resources, to allow organizational stability, to achieve organizational purpose, to enable growth and/or survival, and to enhance market position. The impact of multi-hospital systems is viewed in two major areas: acquisition, retention, and utilization of economic and human resources, and organizational, political, and social factors.     

C: Reviews and notes bibliographies and works of reference

INTRODUCTORY GUIDE TO MIDDLE EASTERN AND ISLAMIC BIBLIOGRAPHY. (Middle East Libraries Committee Research Guides, 5.) Edited by PAUL AUCHTERLONIE. Oxford, Middle East Libraries Committee, 1990. v, 84pp. £9.50.

SUFI WOMEN. By JAVAD NURBAKHSH. Translated by L. Lewisohn. Rev. ed., London & New York, Khaniqahi‐Nimatullahi Publications, 1990. 263pp. 8 illustrations. £7.95.

WHO'S WHO IN THE ARAB WORLD 1990–1991. Tenth edition, thoroughly revised and completed. München, New York, London, Paris, K.G. Saur, for Publitec Publications, 1990. 927 pp. £180.00

INVENTARIO DE FOLLETOS: SECCIÓN DE ÁFRICA Y MUNDO ÁRABE DE LA BIBLIOTECA NACIONAL, I (CAJAS 7000 A 7021). By JAVIER GÓMEZ LÓPEZ & others. Madrid, Biblioteca Nacional, 1989. 124pp.

BIBLIOGRAFIA DE LA LITERATURA HISPANO‐ARABE. Compiled by MARIA JESUS RUBIERA MATA. Alicante, Universidad de Alicante, 1988. 75pp. Ptas. 566.‐

ESTUDIOS ONOMÁSTICO‐BIOGRÁFICOS DE AL‐ANDALUS, I. Edited by MANUELA MARlN. Madrid, CSIC, Instituto de Filología, Departamento de Estudio Árabes, 1988. 610,[2]pp.

ESTUDIOS ONOMÁSTICO‐BIOGRÁFICOS DE AL‐ANDALUS, II. Edited by MARlA LUISA ÁVILA. Granada, CSIC, Escuela de Estudios Árabes, 1989. 342,[2]pp.

AL‐ADAB AL‐TÜNISI AL‐MU'ASIR. By JEAN FONTAINE. Tunis, al‐Dar al‐Tūnisiyya li‐1‐Nashr, 1989. 191pp. TD3.200.

ENGLISH‐PERSIAN DICTIONARY OF LEGAL AND COMMERCIAL TERMS. Compiled By K.FAHIM, J. HABIBION and F. VITTOR. Leiden, Brill, 1989. 81pp. Hfl 150.

FLORA OF EASTERN SAUDI ARABIA. By JAMES P. MANDAVILLE. London, Kegan Paul International, in association with the National Commission for Wild Life Conservation and Development, Riyadh, 1990. x, 482pp. 200 colour ills. £95.00.