A status passage analysis of the defendant's progress through the Magistrates' Court

One possible solution to the problem of subjectivity in the interpretation of social phenomena is the application of models derived from formal grounded theory, since such models make explicit the writer's perspective and the assumptions he or she brings to the social situation. This article uses the Status Passage Theory of Glaser and Strauss (1971) to analyze systematically the way in which English Magistrates' Courts deal with defendants. It identifies various features in the courtroom and precourtroom processes and in the attitudes of the courtroom professionals that appear consistent with the view that the social degradation of offenders is an implicit, yet important, objective of these courts. Finally, comparisons are made between the lower criminal courts in England and the United States and tentative explanations offered as to why differences exist between social degradation aspects of the two systems.This article is an abridged and revised section of the author's LL.M. thesis. Many of the revisions are the result of helpful comments made by Tony Bottoms, Peter Moodie, and Barbara Harrel-Bond on the original thesis.     

Reviews

Vojtech Mastny, Russia's Road to the Cold War: Diplomacy, Warfare, and the Politics of Communism, 1941–1945. New York: Columbia University Press, 1979. xix + 409 pp. $16.95.

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The forecasting potential of complex models

The nature and use of complex models for forecasting and policy simulation are analyzed on theoretical and empirical-performance grounds. The analysis suggests that while the accuracy of complex models in forecasting trends in such fields as economic and energy is, and will remain, undistinguished, complex models' special virtues of preserving counter-intuitive results and representing subsystem interdepedence could be used to better advantage than current practice permits. Suggestions for such improvements, through more diversified model structures, micro-process models in addition to the typical macro models, a mix of mechanically- and judgmentally-operated models, and the modeling of policy response, are reviewed.