A "politically robust" experimental design for public policy evaluation, with application to the Mexican universal health insurance program.

We develop an approach to conducting large-scale randomized public policy experiments intended to be more robust to the political interventions that have ruined some or all parts of many similar previous efforts. Our proposed design is insulated from selection bias in some circumstances even if we lose observations; our inferences can still be unbiased even if politics disrupts any two of the three steps in our analytical procedures; and other empirical checks are available to validate the overall design. We illustrate with a design and empirical validation of an evaluation of the Mexican Seguro Popular de Salud (Universal Health Insurance)program we are conducting. Seguro Popular, which is intended to grow to provide medical care, drugs, preventative services, and financial health protection to the 50 million Mexicans without health insurance, is one of the largest health reforms of any country in the last two decades. The evaluation is also large scale, constituting one of the largest policy experiments to date and what may be the largest randomized health policy experiment ever.     

Measuring community social organization: Sense of community as a mediator in social disorganization theory

The current study utilized an updated systemic model of social disorganization to investigate neighborhood effects on both positive and negative youth outcomes. Although empirical support for updated social disorganization models has increased in recent years, the field continues to rely too heavily on behavioral indicators of community social organization. Unfortunately, these measures do not assess the truly important social processes and dynamics that result in cohesive and supportive neighborhoods. It was proposed that sense of community (SOC) was a more valid, comprehensive, and applicable measure for the mediating variables in social disorganization theory. Results supported the hypothesis that SOC mediates the effect of neighborhood disadvantage on youth outcomes and implications for the field are discussed.     

Project intercept: The Los Angeles experience

A program for the diversion of arrested juveniles from the juvenile justice system in Los Angeles County is described. The interagency program involving eight law enforcement agencies and the probation department was developed without requiring additional funds. Juvenile processing has been expedited with apparent favorable impact, and interagency cooperation in others has increased.     

Some fundamental properties of governmental expenditure patterns — Theory and evidence based on military expenditures

This paper shows that governmental defense expenditure patterns can be accurately modeled by the use of graph curves. This modeling is applicable to both individual weapon systems and entire military treasury code cost categories. The application of this model to the complete Air Force expenditure process suggests a fundamental theory of expenditures which should allow the forecasting of aggregate military defense expenditures in the presence of very sparse data.