Scoring rule sensitivity to weight selection

This essay examines the sensitivity of collective rankings and winners to the weights used in score vectors that are applied to sets of individual rankings to yield collectieve rankings in a typical additive manner. The paper considers probabilities of getting the same winner and the same collective ranking when different score vectors are used for three-element sets. It then discusses the propensities of score vectors to preserve the orginal winner or collective ranking when one or more elements is removed from this ranking and a lower dimensional score vector is applied to the reduced situation. The latter case is examined for three- and four-element sets. The model used for the assessments is based on equally-likely choices of rankings by individuals and applies to situations that involve large numbers of individuals. Roughly speaking, best agreements and minimum sensitivities center around linear (Borda) score vectors. The greatest discrepancies arise from the so-called plurality and reverse plurality score vectors.     

Sex and parole: A comparison of male and female parolees

Male and female parolees released in 1970 with a two-year follow-up were compared on three basic factors: personal attributes, time served, and parole outcome. The two sexes were substantially different in five commitment offenses, prior prison sentences, age at admission to confinement from which paroled, and alcohol and drug involvement; they were relatively similar in the proportion of prior non-prison sentences. Women, on the average, serve less time in prison before parole than men. The proportion successfully continued on parole is the same for both sexes.     

An aggregative model for municipal economic planning

The growth and increasing complexity of municipal governments have been phenomenal in recent years. Thus, economic planning of the municipality has become one of the most difficult administrative functions of local government officials. Yet economic systems analysis of cities has been generally neglected by economists and management scientists. This paper presents a methodology for the effective long-range economic planning of a municipal government. More specifically, it applies the goal programming model to design optimum aggregative model for municipal economic planning.