Accounting for Voter Heterogeneity within and across Districts with a Factor-Analytic Voter-Choice Model

José Afonso Mazzon Faculdade de Administração e Economia, University of São Paulo, Ave. Prof. Luciano Gualberto, 908, CEP 0558-900 São Paulo, Brazil. e-mail: jamazzon{at}usp.br e-mail: kamakura{at}duke.edu (corresponding author) In this study, we propose a model of individual voter behaviorthat can be applied to aggregate data at the district (or precinct)levels while accounting for differences in political preferencesacross districts and across voters within each district. Ourmodel produces a mapping of the competing candidates and electoraldistricts on a latent "issues" space that describes how politicalpreferences in each district deviate from the average voterand how each candidate caters to average voter preferences withineach district. We formulate our model as a random-coefficientsnested logit model in which the voter first evaluates the candidatesto decide whether or not to cast his or her vote, and then choosesthe candidate who provides him or her with the highest value.Because we allow the random coefficient to vary not only acrossdistricts but also across unobservable voters within each district,the model avoids the Independence of Irrelevant AlternativesAssumption both across districts and within each district, therebyaccounting for the cannibalization of votes among similar candidateswithin and across voting districts. We illustrate our proposedmodel by calibrating it to the actual voting data from the firststage of a two-stage state governor election in the Brazilianstate of Santa Catarina, and then using the estimates to predictthe final outcome of the second stage.     

Negative Issue Ownership

Existing research considers issue ownership to be a positive attribute of political parties, which are seen as ‘owning’ those policy areas where they are particularly competent and engaged. However, for some citizens a party may also be a negative issue owner if it has a particularly bad reputation for its handling of an issue. This article describes and explains aggregate and individual-level patterns of negative issue ownership using a survey-based measure of handling perceptions from the 2013 Austrian National Election Study (n = 3,266). Naming a particular party as a negative issue owner is affected by partisanship, but also by policy preferences and government performance evaluations. The effects of issue importance vary across issues. These findings lay the groundwork for more research on negative attributions of issue ownership and their empirical consequences on vote choice.     

Political participation of youth. Young Germans in the European context

Impatience with politics, weariness with political commitment, and individualisation are labels frequently used to characterise the political involvement of young people. Empirical analyses show a rather more complex picture. A basic willingness to become politically involved and to express one’s political opinion is apparent: Indeed, many young people use numerous and varied opportunities to express themselves politically; however, this usually covers only occasional activities. Not surprisingly, participation in some traditional associations has become lower. On the other hand, affinity and commitment to new social movements remain fairly consistent. Participation patterns differ according to gender, education level, and the youth’s place of origin (federal states of the former Federal Republic, or former GDR). These are some of the key results of the follow-up youth surveys carried out by the German Youth Institute. If the comparison between eastern and western Germans is seen in a European perspective, the complex interconnections between the institutionalised political cultures of nations and the participation patterns of young people become apparent. In what kind of institutions and to what extent do young people between 16 and 29 years show political engagement in Germany? What kind of differences can be seen between the new and the old Federal states? Is it possible to identify typical trends of development? Do gender, educational level, value orientations or social background conditions such as unemployment play a role in this regard? In the following, we will endeavour to answer these questions on the basis of empirical research. For this reason, in the following tables and analyses we will particularly focus on the differences between East and West Germany and the temporal development of discrepancies. The question of how specific and changing social institutions influence human attitudes and behaviour can be analysed using the quasi-experiment of 40 years of German division as an example. However, additional aspects reveal themselves and new questions arise by comparing young people across the different European Member States. Hence, we will discuss this additional comparative perspective.     

Der Risikoansatz in der europäischen Hochwassermanagementrichtlinie

Zusammenfassung  Die Bewertung der Richtlinie 2007/60/EG (Hochwassermanagementrichtlinie) durch Michael Reinhardt aus ausschlie?lich rechtlicher Sicht greift zu kurz, um die Bedeutung für das deutsche Wasserrecht und vor allem die beh?rdliche Praxis zu erfassen. Der Hochwasserschutz in Deutschland folgt derzeit überwiegend noch einem Sicherheitsansatz, w?hrend die Hochwassermanagementrichtlinie im Geiste eines Risikoansatzes formuliert ist.