Testing for Cointegrating Relationships with Near-Integrated Data

Testing theories about political change requires analysts tomake assumptions about the memory of their time series. Appliedanalyses are often based on inferences that time series areintegrated and cointegrated. Typically analyses rest on Dickey–Fullerpretests for unit roots and a test for cointegration based onthe Engle–Granger two-step method. We argue that thisapproach is not a good one and use Monte Carlo analysis to showthat these tests can lead analysts to conclude falsely thatthe data are cointegrated (or nearly cointegrated) when thedata are near-integrated and not cointegrating. Further, analystsare likely to conclude falsely that the relationship is notcointegrated when it is. We show how inferences are highly sensitiveto sample size and the signal-to-noise ratio in the data. Wesuggest three things. First, analysts should use the singleequation error correction test for cointegrating relationships;second, caution is in order in all cases where near-integrationis a reasonable alternative to unit roots; and third, analystsshould drop the language of cointegration in many cases andadopt single-equation error correction models when the theoryof error correction is relevant.     

Social heterogeneity and wasteful lobbying

Using a general equilibrium model with endogenous policy, we explore how heterogeneity affects wasteful lobbying by sectoral interest groups. With the help of a simulation approach, we first investigate the impact of information heterogeneity on how lobbies react to a shift from a soft to a strict government budget constraint. Next, we examine how lobbying is influenced by heterogenous perception of the general equilibrium implications of lobbying effort. Finally, we explore the consequences of heterogenous specialization in households' asset portfolios. We conclude that social heterogeneity in information, perceptions, and portfolio compositions increases incentives to lobby.     

Reviews

Thomas Remington (ed.), Parliaments in Transition. The New Legislative Politics in the Former USSR and Eastern Europe. Boulder, CO: Westview Press, 1994, vii + 246pp.

Carlos Taibo, La disolución de la URSS. Barcelona: Ronsel, 1994, xii + 376 pp., 1900 pesetas.

Miroslav Shkandrij, Modernists, Marxists and the Nation. The Ukrainian Literary Discussion of the 1920s. Edmonton: Canadian Institute of Ukrainian Studies Press, University of Alberta, 1992, xii + 265 pp.

Don C. Rawson, Russian Rightists and the Revolution of 1905. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1995, xvi + 286 pp., £40.00 h/b, £19.95 p/b.

Mary Schaeffer Conroy, In Health and in Sickness: Pharmacy, Pharmacists and the Pharmaceutical Industry in Late Imperial, Early Soviet Russia. New York: East European Monographs, Boulder, distributed by Columbia University Press, 1994, viii + 703 pp., h/b, No price.

William Millinship, Frontline: Women of the New Russia. London: Methuen, 1993, xxi + 297 pp., £9.99 p/b.

Sebastian Siebel‐Achenbach, Lower Silesia from Nazi Germany to Communist Poland, 1942–1949. London and Basingstoke: The Macmillan Press Ltd, 1994, vii + 381 pp., £47.50.

John Erickson & David Dilks (eds), Barbarossa. The Axis and the Allies. Edinburgh: Edinburgh University Press, 1994, xii + 287 pp., £25.00

Yuri Pavlov, Soviet‐Cuban Alliance; 1959–1991. New Brunswick and London: Transaction Publishers, 1994, iv + 272 pp., $18.95.

Joshua Fogel, The Cultural Dimension of Sino‐Japanese Relations: Essays on the Nineteenth and Twentieth Centuries. Armonk, NY: M.E. Sharpe, 1995, 216 pp., £40.00 h/b, £16.00 p/b     

Drug consumption among sexual offenders against females

This article aims to evaluate the role of drug consumption among sexual offenders against females. Three groups of participants (N = 133) comprising sexual offenders against girls, pubertal females, and women were examined with reference to history of drug and/or alcohol use, impulsivity level, sexual addiction, and recidivism risk. Sexual offenders against women were found to have significantly more difficulties with drug use, higher impulsivity level, and to be younger than the sexual offenders against girls and pubertal females. The combination of drug consumption and higher level of impulsivity may contribute to sexual aggression against adult females.     

The use of seclusion in the Netherlands compared to countries in and outside Europe

The use of seclusion in psychiatric practice is a contentious issue in the Netherlands as well as other countries in and outside Europe. The aim of this study is to describe Dutch seclusion data and compare these with data on other countries, derived from the literature. An extensive search revealed only 11 articles containing seclusion rates of regions or whole countries either in Europe, Australia or the United States. Dutch seclusion rates were calculated from a governmental database and from a database covering twelve General Psychiatric Hospitals in the Netherlands. According to the hospitals database, on average one in four hospitalized patients experienced a seclusion episode. The mean duration according to the governmental database is a staggering 16 days. Both numbers seem much higher than comparable numbers in other countries. However, different definitions, inconsistent methods of registration, different methods of data collection and an inconsistent expression of the seclusion use in rates limit comparisons of the rates found in the reviewed studies with the data gathered in the current study. Suggestions are made to improve data collection, to enable better comparisons.     

Dispositional empathy in neglectful mothers and mothers at high risk for child physical abuse

This study investigates whether mothers who are neglectful and at high risk for child physical abuse present a deficit in empathy. Participants were neglectful mothers (n=37), mothers at high risk for child physical abuse (n=22), and nonmaltreating mothers (n=37). The Interpersonal Reactivity Index, a self-report measure assessing specific dimensions of empathy, was used to assess dispositional empathy. No differences between neglectful and non-neglectful mothers were found for perspective taking, empathic concern, and personal distress. High-risk mothers reported less perspective taking and more personal distress than nonmaltreating mothers. No difference between groups was found for empathic concern. The present study supported the hypothesis that parents at high risk for child physical abuse show a deficit in particular aspects of dispositional empathy: personal distress and perspective taking. However, no differences were found between neglectful and nonmaltreating mothers in any dimension of dispositional empathy.     

Costs and recovery rates in the Dutch liquidation-based bankruptcy system

We present evidence on the efficiency of the resolution of financial distress in bankruptcy in The Netherlands. Direct costs average 16%, firm recovery 37% and bank debt recovery 80%. The direct costs are lower in larger firms and in firms with more bank debt. Costs increase with the time it takes to sell assets. Firm recovery is influenced by asset structure, capital structure and to a lesser extent Dutch legal variables. However, the opportunity to continue operations in bankruptcy is chosen by about half the firms and this has a positive effect on recoveries.