Coup Risk,Counterbalancing, and International Conflict

Contrary to the literature on rallies-around-the-flag, this article argues that, in some circumstances, leaders may use international conflict to promote domestic divisiveness. More specifically, the threat of a military coup generally prompts leaders to divide their militaries (a practice known as counterbalancing), and even to engage in international conflict to ensure that various branches of their own armed forces remain distrustful of one another. Two empirical tests of these claims are offered: a large-N statistical analysis that examines whether coup risk leads to counterbalancing, and whether counterbalanced nations engage in more low-level military conflict (controlling for other causes of conflict); and a case study of Georgia shortly after the dissolution of the Soviet Union. Both empirical studies support the arguments advanced by the authors.

     

The dictators’ domino theory: a Caribbean Basin anti-communist network, 1947–1952

This article uncovers a Caribbean Basin anti-communist intelligence network independent of the U.S. government and the international Cold War. Nicaraguan dictator Anastasio Somoza, Honduran dictator Tiburcio Carías, and Dominican dictator Rafael Trujillo characterized local democratic developments as communist threats to their regimes’ national security. With the 1947 Cayo Confites expedition and the 1948 Costa Rican Civil War, the military dictators coalesced into an informal network that increasingly shared intelligence. Joined by the Venezuelan military junta and Fulgencio Batista’s Cuban dictatorship, members nurtured a Caribbean Basin anti-communist domino theory characterising threats to one regime as a transnational danger to regional stability.     

Responding to fiscal stress: Fiscal institutions and fiscal adjustment in four Brazilian states

Despite similar external shocks and pressures, Brazilian state leaders varied in the timing and the manner in which they adjusted to fiscal stress. Some state leaders rapidly switched to market-oriented strategies that cut public intervention in the economy. Other state leaders delayed adjustment, and when they finally put their accounts in order it was through market-governing strategies that preserved government activism. In part, these different fiscal policy regimes were products of the decision-making process in which chief executives operated. In states where budgeting obeyed a more open and democratic pattern, chief executives lacked autonomy and were forced to build coalitions to adjust. This meant that they adjusted more slowly and their adjustment strategies included appeals to broad interests, including those seeking protection from market pressures. In states where budgeting was more autocratic, chief executives could act quickly and without building a coalition. The current project uses structured comparison to contrast adjustment patterns in two democratic-budgeting states and two autocratic-budgeting states. The link between budget institutions and adjustment strategy appears to hold regardless of the socioeconomic condition of the states and the political hue of the state leaders.     

USSR's Third World orphans: Deterring desperate dependents

Making the Most of the Least: alternative ways to development. Edited by Leonard Berry and Robert W Kates, New York: Holmes &; Meier. 1980. 282pp. £17.25

The Study of Political Adaptation. James N Rosenau, London: Frances Pinter. 1981. 235pp. £15.00. £6.00pb

Perspectives on World Politics. Edited by Michael Smith, Richard Little and Michael Shackleton, London: Croom Helm. 1980. 431pp. £12.95

Vodka‐Cola: the explosive cocktail of detente. Charles Levinson Horsham, England: Biblias. 1980.328pp. £9.95

White Supremacy: a comparative study in American and South African history. George M Fredrickson, New York: OUP. 1981. 356pp. £12.50

The Third World Calamity. Brian May, London: Routledge and Kegan Paul. 1981. 274pp. £8.95

Reflections on Economic Development and Social Change: essays in honour of Professor V K R V Rao. Edited by C H H Rao and P C Joshi, Oxford: Martin Robertson. 1979. 486pp. £19.50

Circle of Poison: pesticides and people in a hungry world. David Weir and Mark Schapiro San Francisco: Institute for Food and Development Policy. 1981. 101pp. $3.95pb

United States Food Aid in a Global Context. Mitchell B Wallerstein, London: Massachusetts Institute of Technology. 1980. 299pp. £21.00

The World of States. J D B Miller, London: Croom Helm. 1981.179pp. £12.50

The Development Gap: a spatial analysis of world poverty and inequality. J P Cole Chichester, England: John Wiley. 1981. 454pp. £16.80

Agribusiness in the Americas. Roger Burbach and Patricia Flynn, London: Monthly Review Press. 1980. 314pp. £3.25

A Plough in Field Arable: western agribusiness in Third World agriculture. Sarah Potts Voll London: University of New Hampshire. 1981. 213pp. £7.25

Food Policies. John R Tarrant Chichester, England: John Wiley. 1980. 338pp. £15.00

The Political Economy of EEC Relations with African, Caribbean and Pacific States: contributions to the understanding of the Lomé Convention on North‐South relations. Edited by Frank Long, Oxford: Pergamon. 1980. 192pp. £10.50

EEC and the Third World: a survey. Edited by Christopher Stevens, London: Hodder &; Stoughton. 1981. 150pp. £5.00pb

A Framework for Development: the EEC and the ACP. Carol Cosgrove Twitchett, London: George Allen &; Unwin. 1981. 160pp. £12.00

The EEC's Generalised Scheme of Preferences and the Yaoundé and Other Agreements: benefits in trade and development for less developed countries. Delsie M Gandia Montclair, US: Allanheld Osmun. 1981. 178pp. $20.00

The Trade Union Movement in Africa: promise and performance. Wogu Ananaba, London: C Hurst. 1979. 260pp. £9.00

Organise... or Starve: the history of the South African Congress of Trade Unions. Ken Luckhardt and Brenda Walls, London: Lawrence &; Wishart. 1980. 520pp. £7.95. £3.50pb

Conflict and Intervention in the Horn of Africa. Bereket Habte Selassie, London: Monthly Review Press. 1980. 211pp. £8.00

The Development of Corporate Capitalism in Kenya 1918–77. Nicola Swainson, London: Heinemann Educational. 1980. 306pp. £3.95pb

Soviet and Chinese Aid to African Nations. Editd by Warren Weinstein and Thomas H Henriksen, New York: Praeger. 1980. 184pp. £13.00

Nepal in Crisis: growth and stagnation at the periphery P Blaikie, J Cameron and D Seddon, Oxford: Clarendon Press. 1980. 311pp. £17.50. Electoral Politics in the Middle East: issues, voters and elites. Edited by Jacob M Landau, Ergun Özbudun and Frank Tachau, London: Croom Helm &; Stanford: Hoover Institution. 1980. 335pp. £19.95

Survey of Economy, Resources and Prospects of South Asia. M L Qureshi Colombo: Marga Institute (in association with Third World Foundation). 1981. 274pp. np

Sociology of Southeast Asia: readings on social change and development. Edited by Hans‐Dieter Evers Oxford University Press. 1981. 292pp. £17.50.

State Manufacturing Enterprise in a Mixed Economy: the Turkish case. Bertil Walstedt, London: John Hopkins (for the World Bank). 1981. 354pp. £6.00

The Political Economy of Income Distribution in Turkey. Edited by Ergun Özbudun and Aydin Ulusan, London: Holmes &; Meier. 1980. 533pp. £22.95

Minangkabau Social Formations: Indonesian peasants and the world economy. Joel S Kahn, Cambridge University Press. 1980. 228pp. £15.00

Industrial Growth, Employment and Foreign Investment in Peninsula Malaysia. Lutz Hoffman and Tan Siew Ee Oxford University Press. 1980. 322pp. £19.50

Egypt: economic management in a period of transition. Khalid Ikram, London: John Hopkins University Press. 1980. 444pp. np

Korea: a decade of development. Edited by Yunshik Chang Seoul National University Press. 1980. 312pp. $10.00

Pakhtun Economy and Society. Akbar S Ahmed, London: Routledge &; Kegan Paul. 1980. 416pp. £15.00

Chinese Educational Policy. Jan‐Ingvar Lofstedt Stockholm: Almqvist &; Wiksell. 1980. 203pp. SKr 185

The Caribbean Issues of Emergence: socio‐economic and political perspective. Vincent R McDonald, Washington DC: University of America. 1980. 356pp. $21.25. $11.95pb

The Structure of Brazilian Development. Edited by Nuema Aguiar New Brunswick, New Jersey: Transaction Books. 1979. 258pp. $14.95

Literacy and Revolution: the pedagogy of Paulo Freire. Edited by Robert Mackie, London: Pluto Press. 1980. 166pp. £3.50pb

Theories of Imperialism. Wolfgang J Mommsen, London: Weidenfeld &; Nicolson. 1981. 180pp. £8.50

Colonialism 1870–1945: an introduction. D K Fieldhouse, London: Weidenfeld &; Nicolson. 1981. 151pp. £8.95     

Up Against a Wall: Europe's Options for Regulating Biotechnology through Regulatory Anarchy

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Structuralism versus Monetarism : A note on evidence

This paper illustrates, with a ten year simulation, possible effects of Malaysia's national buffer stock for natural rubber on the level and stability of export earnings, export tax revenue, producer income and world price. Employing rubber market parameters based on inference and empirical tests and buffer stock operating costs and policies similar to those of the current Malaysian buffer stock, it is shown that capital requirements for effective control exceed those at the disposal of the buffer stock manager while control may be expected to stabilize price at the expense of export earnings and producer income stability. These unfavourable effects can be neutralized in part by the increase in receipts obtained with a sufficiently narrow controlled price range or by an increase in demand emanating from reduced price risk. Under the apparent wider range of the buffer stock, losses in export earnings and producer income, as well as capital expenses and the terminal deficit of the stock authority are each less than 1 per cent of export earnings and producer income. The maximum short run capital requirement is about 2.5 per cent of these latter magnitudes. The arguments presented indicate that internationalization of the buffer stock would increase the benefits and decrease the costs in terms of the proportion of producer income and export earnings, compared to the existing national device.