Democracy,children, and the environment: a case for commons trusts

This essay argues that our unsustainable degradation of the natural environment violates fundamental, democratic obligations to children. I argue, first, that obligations to children are clearer and more determinate than obligations to future generations. I then argue that our democratic obligations to children alone, which can be derived from a theoretically modest, procedural conception of democracy, demand substantial institutional reforms. Finally, I propose that commons trusts – which have received very little attention in the theoretical literature – are the best way of meeting these obligations.     

Verbal Ability and Persistent Offending: A Race-specific Test of Moffitt’s Theory

Theoretical questions linger over the applicability of the verbal ability model to African-Americans and the social control theory hypothesis that educational failure mediates the effect of verbal ability on offending patterns. Accordingly, this paper investigates whether verbal ability distinguishes between offending groups within the context of Moffitt’s developmental taxonomy. Questions are addressed with longitudinal data spanning childhood through young-adulthood from an ongoing national panel, and multinomial and hierarchical Poisson models (overdispersed). In multinomial models, low verbal ability predicts membership in a life-course-persistent-oriented group relative to an adolescent-limited-oriented group. Hierarchical models indicate that verbal ability is associated with arrest outcomes among White and African-American subjects, with effects consistently operating through educational attainment (high school dropout). The results support Moffitt’s hypothesis that verbal deficits distinguish adolescent-limited- and life-course-persistent-oriented groups within race, as well as the social control model of verbal ability.     

Understanding the Roles of Context,Frequency, and Quantity of Alcohol Consumption in Child Physical Abuse: Risks for Mothers and Fathers

Alcohol use is related to child physical abuse, although little is known about gender-specific risks factors. This study examines the relationships between alcohol outlets, context-specific drinking, dose–response drinking and child physical abuse for mothers and fathers. Telephone interviews were conducted with 1973 female and 1050 male respondents in 50 California cities. Weighted negative binomial models were used to calculate the frequency of physical abuse in the past year. Drinking more often at restaurants was related to higher frequency of physical abuse for fathers, while mothers who drank more frequently at bars and parties used physical abuse more often. There were no significant dose–response drinking relationships for fathers. Drinking higher amounts at bars, parties, and restaurants was associated with less frequent physical abuse for mothers. Our findings suggest that a focus on drinking contexts may reveal heightened risk for many mothers who do not consume large amounts of alcohol.     

Crime Theory Evaluation Using Simulation Models of Residential Burglary

This paper provides new insights on the study of crime modeling through the development of a hybrid cellular automaton (CA) and Multi-agent System (MAS) simulation model that is able to combine components of multiple criminological theories to forecast the locations of residential burglary targets: journey to crime (JTC), social disorganization (SD) theory, and routine activity (RA) theory. In order to combine individual factors from each theory into a unified model, Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) was employed for hierarchical parameter selection. The model is then evaluated using data on offenders obtained from the Dallas Police Department to examine how different crime theories perform in the prediction of residential burglary. Compared to the SD- and RA-weighted models, the JTC-weighted model performed the best when comparisons were made to actual burglary locations. The findings demonstrate that the simulation models of crime provide test beds for research into the explanatory power of various crime theories.     

Does Minority Representation in Police Agencies Reduce Assaults on the Police?

Following recent high-profile deaths of unarmed African American suspects at the hands of police, a number of reforms have been proposed, among them improved minority representation in the ranks of law enforcement organizations. Previous research has explored the effects of minority representation on complaints against the police and other behaviors, but very few studies have examined violence toward the police. We merged several data sources together and tested the hypothesis that minority representation within police departments is inversely associated with assaults against the police. In an extension of prior research, we also conducted separate analyses for African American, Hispanic, and Asian officer representation. The results did not support the expectation that diversity within police organizations results in improved police-citizen interactions, as measured by assaults on police. This study is one of the few to examine how different measures of minority representation in police agencies relates to assaults on the police.     

Inflation and the Making of Australian Macroeconomic Policy, 1945–85

Inflation and the Making of Australian Macroeconomic Policy, 1945–85. By Michael Beggs (Basingstoke: Macmillan Palgrave, 2015), pp.xii + 325, £75.00 (hb).     

Predictors of Underreporting of Male Violence by Batterer Program Participants and Their Partners

Self-reports on domestic violence inventories remain the basis of court and clinical decision-making and program outcome evaluations, but previous research questions their reliability and validity. Accurate prediction of underreporting would help practitioners and researchers adjust batterer and victim self-reports. We develop prediction equations of underreporting on the Conflict Tactics Scale, using a multi-site database of men admitted to batterer programs and their female partners (n = 840). First we use variables measured at program intake to predict female and male underreporting of male violence at program intake. Second, we use variables measured at program intake, as well as measures of program participation, to predict male-female disagreement (male underreporting) at 12-month follow-up. Several variables were predictive of underreporting, both at intake and follow-up, but overall prediction was marginally better than chance. The findings suggest that men and women underreport based on situational factors (such as relationship characteristics) and rational reasons, rather than based on personality traits or social desirability. However, the ability to predict underreporting is too weak for adjustment of self-reports by clinicians and program evaluators.     

Ideas in Politics in International Context

This article asks how we might rethink the study of ‘ideas in politics’ in modern Britain. It suggests that historians need to set the problem in its international contexts in a more structured way. Focussing on the nineteenth century, the article reflects on conceptual angles opened up by ‘global intellectual’ and ‘entangled’ approaches to political ideas and behaviour. While stressing that these methods have their pitfalls, the article argues that a reconsideration of the seams where international and intellectual contexts meet can help to reconnect modern British political history with wider historical debates.     

The roadmap to net-zero emission: Do geopolitical risk and energy transition matter?

Global crises have heightened policy uncertainties and efforts to address global climate change. Limited evidence exists in the literature on geopolitical risk's direct and indirect roles in addressing global emissions. In this study, we examine whether geopolitical risk could impede or facilitate efforts to attain a net-zero emissions target through energy transition using panel data for 42 countries from 1990 to 2020. Various econometric techniques were applied in this study to present robust findings and reliable conclusions. Estimates from the Driscoll-Kraay, Lewbel two-stage least squares and method of moment regression techniques consistently showed that countries' geopolitical risk directly increases emissions (total greenhouse gas, carbon, methane, and nitrous oxide). At the same time, energy transition, measured with renewable energy consumption, mitigates these emissions. In addition, evidence from the partial linear functional-coefficient model technique indicates that renewable energy consumption consistently mitigates emissions when geopolitical is minimal (at a minimum and mean level). However, the role of renewable energy consumption in reducing emissions becomes weaker when geopolitical risk is heightened—thus, when geopolitical risk reaches its maximum level. We recommend that efforts to sustain renewable energy transition and maintain geopolitical stability are vital for achieving net-zero emissions and climate change mitigation.