Rethinking the training of intelligence analysts

Abstract

Despite intense scrutiny and promised fixes resulting from intelligence ‘transformation’ efforts, erroneous analytic assessments persist and continue to dominate news coverage of the US intelligence community. Existing analytic training teaches analysts about common cognitive biases and then aims to correct them with structured analytic techniques. On its face, this approach is eminently reasonable; on close inspection, incomplete and imbalanced. Current training is anchored in a mid-twentieth century understanding of psychology that focuses on checking over-confidence and rigidity but ignores the problems of under-confidence and excessive volatility. Moreover it has never been validated against objective benchmarks of good judgment. We propose a new approach: (a) adopting scientifically validated content and regularly testing training to avoid institutionalizing new dogmas; (b) incentivizing analysts to view training guidelines as means to the end of improved accuracy, not an end in itself.     

ICF脑卒中核心分类组合功能的图形建模研究

目的依据《国际功能、残疾和健康分类(ICF)》脑卒中核心组合,探讨脑卒中相关功能类目之间的关系,绘制ICF脑卒中核心分类组合的功能地形图,为脑卒中的伤残评定提供科学理论依据。方法收集106例脑卒中被鉴定人样本,采用"最小的绝对缩减和变量选择算子",研究脑卒中ICF核心组合功能的59项类目变量之间的条件依存关系,并用图形建模分析类目之间的内在联系,绘制功能地形图。结果 59项类目之间的相互联系构成了功能地形图,b340、b735、b175和b152因关联性较高而居于地形图的中心位置。结论脑卒中功能地形图可以揭示ICF功能类目之间复杂的关系结构及关联程度。可以为应用ICF进行脑卒中的伤残评定提供科学理论依据。     

法的价值研究及方法刍议

法的价值是法和法律制度的重要因素和特质,也是法学理论中的难点问题.法律实践和法学理论的许多同题都需要研究法的价值问题,而法的价值的研究方法制约着法的价值研究的深入.只有通过认识主体与客体之阃的关系,坚持主体需要的客观性、阶级性和社会性,采用从主体需要入手的方法,才能正确认识和诠释法的价值问题.     

论英美刑法中的胁迫

胁迫在英美刑法中是合法辩护事由的一种。胁迫成立条件包括真实性、对象、程度、现实性以及不可以免罪的罪行等方面的要求;胁迫可以免罪的理论依据包括功利主义的要求、人性的需要以及对刑法的谦抑性和个别正义的追求。     

穿袜粉尘足迹检验中的形态变异问题

静电吸附方法提取穿袜粉尘足迹时,由于受到袜子对粉尘的缓冲和静电场强度影响而出现形态变异问题,造成特征不符的假象而干扰正确的检验结果,提请在足迹检验操作时引起注意.     

变动装订痕迹的特征及检验方法

对机制、半机制和手工装订的原始痕迹特征和变动痕迹特征进行叙述描绘,并着重介绍变动装订痕迹的检验方法.     

从数字资源开发看公安特色数据库的建设与发展

公安文献信息数字资源主要来自公安机关、院校、协会等建立的特色数据库;建设特色数据库应全面掌握公安业务信息,深入了解公安学科专业设置状况,在与其它公安院校合作的基础上,建立起具有鲜明学科、专业特色的数据库体系,以便更好地为用户提供高质量的专业化服务。     

The International Migration of Talent and Talent Security

There are basically three different types of internationally mobile talent： industry talents, professionals, and talents of the social sciences and culture. There are seven different factors underlying the international migration of talented people： the global income gap, the pursuit of personal worth, requirements of national development, technical innovation, industrial agglomeration, language and cultural compatibility, and immigration policies. The international migration of talent increasingly highlights the issue of international talent security, and has a far-reaching impact on personal safety, as well as national and global security. Therefore, cooperation on international talent safety issues should be strengthened in order to establish a more regular order to the international migration of talent, and to reduce the negative effects brought about by it, so as to promote economic globalization and sound economic and political progress in the international community.     

中国共产党有效执政的基础、挑战及路径依赖

执政党的有效执政,最根本的是要有效地规范、利用和分配好自身的执政资源,这是提升其执政合法性的重要基础。在新时期,中国共产党要实现有效执政,虽有其一定的基础和源泉,但也面临着严重的挑战。整合好执政资源,是中国共产党实现有效执政的价值选择。     

统一战线与党的建设:建设中国特色社会主义的重要法宝

统一战线是中国共产党克敌制胜的法宝,是党的建设理论的重要组成部分.统一战线必须坚持党的领导,同时统一战线对加强党的思想、组织与作风建设具有着重要意义.文章指出,在党的统一战线理论中,统一战线已经成为国家制度、党和国家决策的重要环节,它已经不是一个简单的党的作风问题,而是制度建设的一个重要内容.