Competing Risks, Persistence, and Desistance in Analyzing Recidivism

A statistical procedure is developed to analyze recidivism in samples whichare subject to the presence of desisters and to multiple modes ofreconviction. This allows for a more accurate study of individuals'transition and hazard in the type and timing of offenses following aspecific type of conviction. The use of a nonparametric approach forinvestigating failure in the presence of other acting causes is shown;initial estimators of the probabilities of reconviction for different typesof offenses are obtained, and the method can be used both to display thedata and to choose an appropriate parametric family for the survivaltimes. An exponential mixture model for competing risks is presented insuch a way that it allows us to adjust for concomitant variables and toassess their effects on the probabilities both of reconviction forpredetermined types of offenses and desistance and of the hazards ofreconviction; a method for assessing calibration of predicted survivalprobabilities is suggested. A 21-year follow-up of persons convicted ofindecent assault on a female in 1973 illustrates the methods; we find ahigh probability of sexual reconviction for individuals with previoussexual convictions and evidence of diversity and a raised hazard ofreconviction for young chronic offenders.     

What If? The Historian and the Counterfactual

This essay lays out why many scholars, particularly historians, are inherently skeptical of counterfactuals. It highlights several of the most obvious errors that are often made by those undertaking counterfactual reasoning. It also highlights how these articles go a long way toward developing effective rules for the appropriate and most effective use of counterfactuals.     

An Anthropological Examination of the Types of Skeletal Fractures Resulting from Fatal High (˃3 m) Free Falls,

Fatal falls from heights (?3 m) often result in blunt force trauma (BFT) to the skeleton. The fracture patterns that result from this BFT mechanism are well understood in forensic anthropology and forensic pathology; however, details of the specific types of fractures that result remain poorly documented. The aim of this study was to provide a detailed examination of the types of fractures that may result from fatal high falls. Fractures were recorded from 95 full‐body postmortem computed tomography scans of individuals known to have died from a high fall. Trauma was then analyzed taking into account the extrinsic and intrinsic variables known to influence a fall using multiple logistic regression. A total of 339 types of fractures were classified, of which 16 were significantly associated with this BFT mechanism. Classified fracture types will augment anthropological interpretations of the circumstances of death from BFT in cases of suspected high falls.     

Virtual autopsy and forensic identification-practical application: a report of one case

The body of an unidentified elderly woman was found trapped in a floodgate. Prior to autopsy, full-body multislice computed tomography (MSCT) was performed for study of bone lesions and cause of death. Age was estimated by analysis of the sternal end of the fourth rib and of the pubic symphyseal medial articular surfaces. The results were then compared with the autopsy findings. MSCT was superior to autopsy in diagnosis of traumatic bone lesions and also revealed dental anomalies and signs of drowning. Age estimation gave a similar result for both methods. This case report illustrates the potential value of MSCT for medico-legal investigations of death: diagnosis of injuries, possibility of determining the cause of death, and anthropological study in order to estimate age or to visualize features likely to enable identification of a corpse.