Technology,behavior, and safety: An empirical study of automobile occupant-protection regulation

Technology and human behavior can influence the effectiveness of safety policies. In the field of traffic safety, rational-choice theorists postulate that automobile safety devices induce increased driver risk taking. Such behavioral responses could partly or totally nullify the lifesaving potential of governmental safety rules for new cars, such as the crashworthiness standards adopted by the United States in the late 1960s and early 1970s. This study explores the behavioral-response hypothesis in the context of a car-vintage model of U.S. car occupant death rates. Results from the model imply that U.S. standards have reduced the occupant death rate by roughly 30 percent, a finding consistent with minimal driver response to safety devices. The study provides support for the technological approach to safety policy and suggests that policymakers might consider adopting additional crashworthiness regulations, such as some form of passive-restraint program.Financial support was provided by the Economic Studies Program, Brookings Institution. I thank Robert W. Crandall, Steven Garber, Lawrence Summers, and the editors for comments. All views and residual errors are solely my responsibility.     

On assessing the mood of the public toward the police: Some conceptual issues

The use of attitudinal surveys has become a widely accepted method for the incorporation of public opinion in public policy decisions. Because of the assumption that the interpretation of such surveys is straightforward and clear, little critical attention has been devoted to the methodological and theoretical problems encountered when translating these findings into public policy. A case in point involves the proliferation of surveys aimed at assessing the mood of the public toward the police. A review of the literature reveals that the research findings about the public mood are contradictory and thus lack convergent validity. The findings of this study indicate that this lack of convergent validity in the images of the public toward the police can be explained on both methodological and theoretical grounds. More specifically, the findings indicate that the mood of the public is very different depending on the level of specificity of the items used to tap that mood. Items eliciting evaluations of a general nature show the public as supportive of the police, while items of a specific nature show much less public support. This apparent paradox is explained through the use of a theoretical framework developed by Easton (1965), which emphasizes diffuse and specific support as external influences on institutions.