Terrorism Risk, Resilience and Volatility: A Comparison of Terrorism Patterns in Three Southeast Asian Countries

Objective

This article explores patterns of terrorist activity over the period from 2000 through 2010 across three target countries: Indonesia, the Philippines and Thailand.

Methods

We use self-exciting point process models to create interpretable and replicable metrics for three key terrorism concepts: risk, resilience and volatility, as defined in the context of terrorist activity.

Results

Analysis of the data shows significant and important differences in the risk, volatility and resilience metrics over time across the three countries. For the three countries analysed, we show that risk varied on a scale from 0.005 to 1.61 “expected terrorist attacks per day”, volatility ranged from 0.820 to 0.994 “additional attacks caused by each attack”, and resilience, as measured by the number of days until risk subsides to a pre-attack level, ranged from 19 to 39 days. We find that of the three countries, Indonesia had the lowest average risk and volatility, and the highest level of resilience, indicative of the relatively sporadic nature of terrorist activity in Indonesia. The high terrorism risk and low resilience in the Philippines was a function of the more intense, less clustered pattern of terrorism than what was evident in Indonesia.

Conclusions

Mathematical models hold great promise for creating replicable, reliable and interpretable “metrics” to key terrorism concepts such as risk, resilience and volatility.     

Mobilizing Law in Latin America: An Evaluation of Black's Theory in Brazil

This research addresses two separate but related questions. First, to what extent are sociological theories proposed to explain legal behavior in Western societies applicable to non‐Western contexts? And second, to what degree is Black's theory of law generalizable, as he contends, “across time and space?” Our research merges these questions by exploring the applicability of Black's theory in a Latin American context. Data collected from a nationally representative survey in Brazil suggest support for Black's propositions regarding the impact of vertical, horizontal, cultural, and normative status on the likelihood of mobilizing the law, as well as the feasibility of using his framework for understanding legal behavior in non‐Western settings. Our discussion considers implications and directions for future analyses in both the Brazilian and cross‐cultural contexts.     

Estimating the speed of vehicles: the influence of stereotypes

Abstract

Davies and Patel (2005, Legal and Criminological Psychology, 10, 45–62) demonstrated that stereotypes associated with particular types of car influenced judgements of culpability in a road accident report. This study explores whether stereotypes influence judgements of the speed of different vehicles. In Experiment 1, participants observed films of a BMW 3 Series and VW Polo being driven at 20, 40 and 60 mph. Accuracy of speed estimates was high and no effect of stereotyping was observed. This finding was replicated in Experiment 2 when the stereotype of a ‘typical’ BMW or Polo driver was instantiated prior to viewing the films and despite participants predicting that the speed of the BMW would be substantially higher than the Polo. In Experiment 3, speed estimates were made unexpectedly a day after viewing the films. In accordance with the stereotype, the BMW was now judged as being driven significantly faster than the Polo at the same actual speed. Consistent with findings from person perception, these results suggest that when unambiguous countervailing information is present, stereotypical influences are minimised or overwhelmed, but much stronger effects occur when access to critical information is impaired or ambiguous. The implications of these findings for witness estimates of vehicle speed are discussed.     

New methods for examining expertise in burglars in natural and simulated environments: preliminary findings

Expertise literature in mainstream cognitive psychology is rarely applied to criminal behaviour. Yet, if closely scrutinised, examples of the characteristics of expertise can be identified in many studies examining the cognitive processes of offenders, especially regarding residential burglary. We evaluated two new methodologies that might improve our understanding of cognitive processing in offenders through empirically observing offending behaviour and decision-making in a free-responding environment. We tested hypotheses regarding expertise in burglars in a small, exploratory study observing the behaviour of ‘expert’ offenders (ex-burglars) and novices (students) in a real and in a simulated environment. Both samples undertook a mock burglary in a real house and in a simulated house on a computer. Both environments elicited notably different behaviours between the experts and the novices with experts demonstrating superior skill. This was seen in: more time spent in high value areas; fewer and more valuable items stolen; and more systematic routes taken around the environments. The findings are encouraging and provide support for the development of these observational methods to examine offender cognitive processing and behaviour.     

Onwards and Sidewards? The Curious Case of the Responsibility to Protect and Mass Violence in Africa

This article approaches Responsibility to Protect (R2P) from the ground up. Selecting African cases of mass atrocity in the age of R2P, it identifies key general features of contemporary violence. The article goes on to consider the nature and extent of R2P practice in each case. The argument is that R2P engagements in these conflicts display a mixture of weakness and irrelevance. The result of this is that R2P has failed significantly to reduce human suffering in any of the cases dealt with. The article notes that this clear failure does not seem to perturb the mainstream of academic R2P discourses, which, although critical at times, remain confident that R2P is making some difference and represents the best way forward. The article explores how this kind of discourse is propounded in the scholarly work on R2P. This leads us towards an argument that R2P as a discourse and international project can run in parallel with continuing mass suffering in African civil wars without being profoundly troubled.     

The role of cognition in fitness to stand trial: a systematic review

The aim of the current paper was to systematically review the quality and design of the literature examining cognition and fitness to stand trial (FST). Ten empirical studies published between 1970 and July 2013 met the inclusion criteria. All studies utilised cross-sectional designs and six were prospective. Study quality was appraised based on FST research guidelines. The study quality was highly variable. Intelligence was controlled statistically in only half of the included studies. Cognitive processes, specifically, processing speed, verbal memory and visuoperceptual skills differentiated fit and unfit groups. Aspects of executive functioning, including social knowledge and abstract thinking, influenced FST. Future studies should use prospective consecutive designs and multivariate statistical strategies that control for potential confounds. Comprehensive assessment across a number of cognitive domains is needed in order to validate research conducted to date and guide forensic assessment of FST.     

Sensitivity of TATP to a TASER Electrical Output

A series of experiments were performed to evaluate and document the effect of a TASER (“stun gun”) on triacetone triperoxide (TATP), an easily manufactured explosive used often in IEDs and suicide bombing vests. TATP samples were synthesized and subjected to several tests of their sensitivity. These samples were run through a BAM Friction test with a result of <0.5 N, Impact Test with a result of 5.8 ± 0.4 cm, and Electrostatic Discharge test with a result of 0.073 ± 0.018 J. In addition, TATP was shocked with a TASER in a variety of configurations. The TATP reacted in 17/17 tests when the TASER arced through the TATP and 0/4 times when the TATP was configured in such a way that the TATP was not subjected to the electrical arc. Based on the experimental data, TATP will readily explode in a variety of configurations by a TASER or similar device. Testing should be expanded, as the data presented here are limited to a single formulation of TATP. Just one of a large array of TASER‐like devices by a single manufacturer were tested; other devices, scenarios and formulations of TATP and other likely threat materials should be assessed.     

Transportation and Socioemotional Well-Being of Urban Students With and Without Disabilities

This study explored the extent to which transportation difficulties were associated with social, psychological, and academic experiences of urban, at-risk students who recently experienced a school transition. Participants included 165 predominantly African American and Latino/a high school youth with and without disabilities, a critical population for community psychology to address given their likelihood of multiple marginalizations. Results suggested transportation problems within school predicted more school stressors and aggressive behavior. Transportation problems to and from school predicted fewer school resources, less school belonging, and more school stressors, anxiety, and depression. Greater time to get to school predicted fewer school resources, less school belonging, and more depressive symptoms. This study demonstrates the importance of including transportation in how the school day is conceptualized, and offers several implications for how transportation services can be best addressed.     

Transnational partisanship: idea and practice

That parties might successfully organize transnationally is an idea often met with scepticism. This article argues that while certain favourable conditions are indeed absent in the transnational domain, this implies not that partisanship is impossible but that it is likely to be marked by certain traits. Specifically, it will tend to be episodic, structured as a low-density network and delocalized in its ideational content. These tendencies affect the normative expectations one can attach to it. Transnational partisanship should be valued as a transitional phenomenon, e.g. as a pathway to transnational democracy, more than as a desirable thing in itself.