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A simple, robust, quasi-linear, structural general equilibrium rational voting model indicates turnout by voters motivated by the possibility of deciding the outcome is bell-curved in the ex-post winning margin and inversely proportional to electorate size. Applying this model to a large set of union certification elections, which often end in ties, yields exacting, lucid tests of the theory. Voter turnout is strongly related to election closeness, but not in the way predicted by the theory. Thus this relation is generated by some other mechanism, which is indeterminate, as no existing theory explains the nonlinear patterns of turnout in the data. 相似文献
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Zambia's 2006 election was won by incumbent President Levy Mwanawasaand his Movement for Multi-Party Democracy (MMD). However, itis argued here that the most important outcome of the campaignwas the successful articulation of a new populist politics byMichael Sata's Patriotic Front (PF), which won a significantmajority in urban areas. Sata's attacks on foreign investors(particularly from China) for their abuse of the workforce andtheir supposedly corrupt relationship with the MMD resonatedwith urban Zambians, already angered by the negative impactof economic liberalization. PF's campaign injected popular socialdemands into what had become a moribund political debate. TheMMD government is now adopting PF policies in an attempt torestore its own urban support base. The article describes thecampaign and its outcomes, contrasting the political discourseof the MMD and PF and analysing the differences in voting behaviourbetween rural and urban Zambians. It argues that recent reliefof 92 percent of Zambia's international debt, along with therenewed profitability of the copper mining industry, have createdconditions for the re-emergence of a nationalist-developmentalpolitical framework. 相似文献
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Owen Esaias M.Sc. Grant W. Noonan D.P.S. Shane Everist M.Sc. Michell Roberts B.B.Sc. Cassie Thompson M.Sc. Matt N. Krosch Ph.D. 《Journal of forensic sciences》2020,65(3):722-728
An important component of crime scene reconstruction is bloodstain pattern analysis (BPA). Where BPA concerns impact patterns, estimating the area of origin is critical information for scene reconstruction. Traditionally, this is achieved by measuring individual bloodstains and performing trigonometric calculations; however, 3D scanning has been proposed as a viable alternative for overcoming logistical and practical concerns with the manual method. Therefore, this project aimed to establish whether the FARO Focus 3D scanner and FARO Zone 3D software can improve the accuracy of area of origin estimates relative to the manual method. We created a series of eight bloodstain impact patterns and performed paired analysis using the two methods to estimate areas of origin for each pattern. Our data suggested that FARO-derived estimates were generally more accurate than using the manual method. FARO-estimated heights of origin areas were generally closer to the true distance. Both methods underestimated the distance from the wall for most patterns originating 150mm or greater from the wall, but overestimated distances for patterns originating closer to the wall. The degree to which distances were underestimated increased significantly the further the blood source was from the wall and was greater for FARO-derived estimates. The results of this research contribute to the validation of these instruments for operational implementation for BPA and should be considered alongside the practical benefits of 3D scanning relative to manual methods. Further, 3D scanning can provide reliable BPA reconstruction documentation for technical review and court presentation. 相似文献
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Lorna Grant 《Police Practice and Research》2020,21(4):368-382
ABSTRACT Procedural justice theory plays a central role in understanding police–citizen relationships. To test the universality of procedural justice theory, researchers have tended to assess the relative impacts of normative and instrumental models of policing in different geopolitical contexts. Building on Reisig and Lloyd’s study in Jamaica, we test in the current study the relative impacts of procedural justice (a normative factor) and police effectiveness and risk of sanctioning (instrumental factors) on Jamaicans’ obligation to obey the police and willingness to cooperate with police. We found that procedural justice predicted both obligation to obey and cooperation, although obligation did not predict cooperation. And while effectiveness predicted obligation, it was not significantly related to cooperation. Lastly, older citizens were more willing to cooperate with police. The study’s implications for policy and future research are discussed. 相似文献
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This article compares two parliamentary constituencies in Warwickshire: one which might be expected to be Conservative but is held by Labour, and the other, a Labour seat for over fifty years, but now held by the Conservatives. Constituency level analyses permit a more fine-grained analysis of electoral trends, taking account of demographic factors otherwise being overlooked. Labour needs to be able to appeal to the aspirational voters moving into Nuneaton. 相似文献