A Bayesian Change Point Model for Historical Time Series Analysis

Political relationships often vary over time, but standard modelsignore temporal variation in regression relationships. We describea Bayesian model that treats the change point in a time seriesas a parameter to be estimated. In this model, inference forthe regression coefficients reflects prior uncertainty aboutthe location of the change point. Inferences about regressioncoefficients, unconditional on the change-point location, canbe obtained by simulation methods. The model is illustratedin an analysis of real wage growth in 18 OECD countries from1965–1992.     

Criminals' explanations of their criminal behavior, III: the effects of time and context

The authors looked at the explanations for their index of violent crimes as given by 69 incarcerated violent male offenders, respectively. We then examined the extent to which those explanations changed with the passing of time and with change in context. We found that explanations of impaired internal control increased with the passing of time, and that such explanation was given more often to mental health professionals rather than law enforcement professionals. Finally, we found that our subjects tended to give mental health professionals fewer explanations involving external control with the passing of time.     

Popular representations of race: the news coverage of BiDil

The BiDil story offers an ideal opportunity to explore the nature and tone of media representations of race and genetics. For example, was a biological view of race emphasized? Or was the notion of race presented in a critical fashion?