The risk of detection

The clearance rate is often used as an indicator of the risk of detection, in spite of the fact that these are different matters. This article suggests a method to make estimates of the risk of detection based on information from the Swedish crime statistics. The risk of detection is expressed as a function of the dark figure. Empirical estimates of the risk are given for drunken driving, residential burglary, and assault between strangers. These estimates are followed up with some calculations concerning the impact of crime activity level on the risk of getting caught. One major conclusion of the findings is that the risk of detection varies very moderately with the dark figure. This means that if there is some knowledge of the dark figure, it is often possible to make fairly good estimates of the risk of detection.     

A computational electoral competition model with social clustering and endogenous interest groups as information brokers

We extend the basic model of spatial competition in two directions. First, political parties and voters do not have complete information but behave adaptively. Political parties use polls to search for policy platforms that maximize the probability of winning an election and the voting decision of voters is influenced by social interaction. Second, we allow for the emergence of interest groups. These interest groups transmit information about voter preferences to the political parties, and they coordinate voting behavior. We use simulation methods to investigate the convergence properties of this model. We find that the introduction of social dynamics and interest groups increases the separation between parties platforms, prohibits convergence to the center of the distribution of voter preferences, and increases the size of the winning set.     

Perspectives on Managing Intractable Conflict

The author, a Swedish diplomat with extensive experience in peace-keeping initiatives of the United Nations, focuses on two questions that are prominent in the management of intractable international conflict: (1) the interplay between short-term and long-term interventions; and (2) the growing "tools" that are available to mediators and other peacemakers, and how to judge their effectiveness. This brief essay is an adaptation of the author's informal remarks at the March, 2002 Hewlett Centers meeting in New York City.     

The Contribution of Organized Youth Sport to Antisocial and Prosocial Behavior in Adolescent Athletes

In this study, we investigated the contribution of organized youth sport to antisocial and prosocial behavior in adolescent athletes. The sample consisted of N=260 male and female soccer players and competitive swimmers, 12 to 18 years of age. Multilevel regression analysis revealed that 8% of the variance in antisocial behavior and 7% of the variance in prosocial behavior could be attributed to characteristics of the sporting environment. Results suggested that coaches who maintain good relationships with their athletes reduce antisocial behavior, and that exposure to relatively high levels of sociomoral reasoning within the immediate context of sporting activities promotes prosocial behavior. These results point to specific aspects of adolescents’ participation in sport that can be used to realize the educational potential of organized youth sport. She is currently writing her Ph.D. thesis on sports and education. Interests include moral development, behavioral adaptation, and delinquency. Associate Professor of Special Education at the University of Amsterdam, The Netherlands. His research interests include socio-emotional development and moral education. Professor of Educational Theory in the School of Education and life long learning, University of Exeter, UK. His research focuses on the role of communication in education. Professor of Special Education at the Free University of Amsterdam, The Netherlands. His research interests concern socio-emotional development and developmental psychopathology, especially within the framework of attachment theory. She is working on a Ph.D. thesis on dyslexia. Her interests include socio-emotional development and learning problems. Free University of Amsterdam, The Netherlands. Assistant Professor at the Department of Developmental Psychology of Free University of Amsterdam, The Netherlands. Interests include methods of developmental research and multilevel modeling. University of Amsterdam, Faculty of Social and Behavioral Sciences, Department of Education     

A meta-analysis of the effectiveness of individually oriented Cognitive Behavioral Treatment (CBT) for severe aggressive behavior in adolescents

This meta-analysis, including six studies (13 effect sizes) and 164 adolescents, examined the effectiveness of individually oriented treatment (which means that the intervention contained at least an individual component, possibly in combination with group and/or family therapy) with CBT-elements for adolescents with severe aggression problems. A large and homogeneous overall effect size was found (d = 1.139) indicating consistency across studies. The included studies examined the effect of three interventions, namely, mode deactivation therapy (MDT; four studies), stress-inoculation therapy (1), and the cell-phone program (1). This multilevel analysis demonstrated that only few individually oriented interventions have been developed and evaluated, while four of the included studies used a weak research design. Effective individually tailored interventions for youths with severe aggression problems (who are unsuitable for group treatment) are scant. There may be added value if group interventions are supplemented with more individually tailored evidence-based interventions.