Understanding the historical turn in the policy sciences: A critique of stochastic, narrative, path dependency and process-sequencing models of policy-making over time

This article evaluates four general models of historical change processes which have emerged in various fields in the social sciences – namely stochastic, historical narrative, path dependency and process sequencing – and their application to the study of public policy-making. The article sets out and assesses the merits and evidence for each, both in general social research and in the policy sciences. The article suggests that more work needs to be done examining the assumptions and presuppositions of each model before it can be concluded that any represents the general case in policy processes. However, since neither the irreversible linear reality assumed by narrative models, nor the random and chaotic world assumed by stochastic models, nor the contingent turning points and irreversible trajectories required of the path dependency model are found very often in policy-making, these models are likely to remain less significant than process-sequencing models in describing the overall general pattern of policy dynamics.     

All Together Now? An Empirical Study of the Voting Behaviors of Homeowner Association Members in St. Louis County

Homeowner associations (HOAs), by design, collect homogenous members of a community into a residential development with defined boundaries and contain at least some very active individuals. This implies that HOAs may lower the transaction costs involved with voting resulting in HOA membership increasing voter participation. Further, as more HOAs provide goods and services to their members as substitutes for goods and services provided by the public sector, one would expect HOA members to vote more conservatively and in support of more privatization. Using a detailed population database constructed for Saint Louis County, Missouri, and results from the November 2004 general election, this article analyzes the effect that living in an HOA has on voter participation and on the results of several election issues. Following a similar study by the Public Policy Institute of California, the results show that, once population characteristics are controlled for, there is no HOA effect on the likelihood of HOA members to vote Republican. Unlike previous work, this study shows that if the vote reporting districts are broken into five mutually exclusive categories rather than using the 60% rule used in other studies, areas with more HOAs do show an increase in participation rates and an increased likelihood to vote against property tax increases. The results hold up even after the presence of spatial autocorrelation is confirmed and controlled for.     

The Australian Public Sector and New Governance

The AJPA resumed publishing the Administrative Chronicle in 1996. Each year the editors invite a distinguished writer to contribute an administrative essay reviewing developments in the previous year. They are asked to examine trends and topics of major importance rather than simply providing a chronology of events. In inviting contributors the editors have attempted to incorporate different views across Australia. Previous chronicles have included J Stewart (55)1; S Prasser (56)1 and J Homeshaw (57)3.     

Brexit: The EU Policy‐Making State Hits the Populist Buffers

There seems to be an emerging conventional wisdom that the Brexit vote resulted from specific domestic factors in Britain, such as divisions within the ruling Conservative party, the rise of UKIP, strong reaction to increased immigration, all set against the backdrop of globalisation and its adverse effects. The end result was a populist revolt. The argument presented here is somewhat different. Whilst accepting that the above factors were certainly very important, it is argued that it is important to examine the key role of the EU itself in the creation of the current crisis within the EU. The construction of an EU policy‐making state has run far ahead of what voters at the national level want, leading to a central paradox within the EU, namely that the European elite which runs the EU has introduced some very beneficial public policies, yet that elite has become increasingly out of touch with its peoples.     

Changing your political mind: The impact of a metaphor on citizens’ representations and preferences for federalism

Federalism is often presented through metaphors, but little is known about the impact of such metaphors. Two experiments were conducted in Belgium presenting federalism as Tetris – with control and treatment groups – in order to grasp the influence of this metaphor. The first experiment reveals that being exposed to text with the Tetris metaphor influences respondents’ representations of federalism towards a more institutional representation and towards more regional autonomy. The second experiment confirms the importance of the text, and more specifically of the metaphor, if political knowledge is taken into account. Respondents with a lower level of political knowledge are those who are influenced by the metaphor, whereas respondents with a higher level are not. Therefore, framing the future of Belgian federalism using the metaphor of Tetris does matter: it affects both individuals’ representations of the federalization process and, consequently, their preferences vis-à-vis the institutional future of the country.     

The Economy Effect: Conceptual Innovation and Benefit Corporations

What kind of thing is the economy, and how might we act to change it? This article draws on the work of Timothy Mitchell and J. K. Gibson-Graham to suggest that the economy may be fruitfully understood as a structural effect, or an appearance of difference maintained through the repetition of acts and practices. It then employs Reinhart Koselleck’s theory of conceptual change to argue that the economy effect may be altered through efforts aimed at conceptual innovation. If the economy effect is maintained through repeated acts and practices that delineate the distinction between the economy and everything else, then conceptual innovation with respect to those concepts that inform these acts and practices could alter the manner in which this distinction is produced. The benefit (or public interest) corporation serves as an example of how such efforts at conceptual innovation might produce change in the structural effect that we call “the economy.”