Specialization and seriousness during adult criminal careers

Crime-type switching between arrests is examined for tendencies by adult offenders to specialize in crime types or to escalate in seriousness as offending continues. The adult offenders examined display higher levels of specialization than have been previously reported for juveniles; among adult offenders, those who remain criminally active until older ages are also more specialized. Also, there is some evidence of trends toward a worsening of offending: for selected crime types, adult offending becomes more specialized and escalates in seriousness for white offenders. However, similar trends are not observed for black adult offenders.Work on this paper was completed while at the School of Urban and Public Affairs, Carnegie Mellon University.     

Does Capital Punishment Have a Deterrent Effect? New Evidence from Postmoratorium Panel Data

Evidence on the deterrent effect of capital punishment is importantfor many states that are currently reconsidering their positionon the issue. We examine the deterrent hypothesis by using county-level,postmoratorium panel data and a system of simultaneous equations.The procedure we employ overcomes common aggregation problems,eliminates the bias arising from unobserved heterogeneity, andprovides evidence relevant for current conditions. Our resultssuggest that capital punishment has a strong deterrent effect;each execution results, on average, in eighteen fewer murders—witha margin of error of plus or minus ten. Tests show that resultsare not driven by tougher sentencing laws and are robust tomany alternative specifications.     

Demographically disaggregated projections of prison populations

The need for improved long-run projections of prison populations has increased in recent years because of record-high numbers of inmates and severe overcrowding in state and federal prisons, and because of the growing importance of changing demographic factors in influencing corrections populations. A model is developed for projecting: general population demographics; demographic- and offense-specific arrest rates, imprisonment probabilities, and times served; and then the size and composition of prison populations. Model parameters are estimated for Pennsylvania and are shown to be sensitive to demographic factors, particularly age and race. Projections of future arrests, prison commitments, and prison population are developed for Pennsylvania using projections of demographic changes in the state's population. Arrests are expected to peak in 1980, prison commitments are expected to peak in 1985, and prison populations are expected to peak in 1990, with the subsequent declines reflecting the maturation of the postwar baby boom children out of the highly crime-prone ages and, somewhat later, out of the highly prison-prone ages.